The risk of a U.S. government shutdown intensifies as budget negotiations stall: Reuters
The International Monetary Fund’s new chief economist endorses the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause rate hikes: FT
Challenges arise in Congress for Trump’s NAFTA replacement: Axios
The U.S. dollar nears a six-week high amid global growth concerns: CNBC
Krugman warns of increasing risk of a global recession: CNBC
Japan’s Q4 GDP is projected to show slight growth: MNI
The delayed U.S. GDP report for Q4 is now set to be released on February 28: BEA
U.S. warships challenge China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea: CNN
Pompeo travels to Central Europe to counterbalance Russian and Chinese influence: Politico
The UK economy shrank in December due to Brexit-related pressures: Bloomberg
By Richard Baldwin
Review via The Times
The rise of robots is poised to disrupt white-collar professions. Following the loss of millions of manufacturing jobs in the late 20th century, the next wave of automation—termed the “globotics” upheaval, a blend of globalization and robotics—may render between one in six and one in ten jobs obsolete.
This forthcoming Globotics Revolution will set professionals in developed nations against zero-wage algorithms (white-collar robots) and lower-wage graduates from developing nations (tele-migrants). Engineers, accountants, lawyers, service workers, office staff, and middle management all face threats from these “globots.”
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Can Sustainable Investment Yield Better Financial Returns:
A Comparative Study of ESG Indices and MSCI Indices
Mansi Jain (Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University), et al.
2 February 2019
‘Sustainable investment’ encompasses various asset classes selected with attention to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors. This investment strategy aims to combine social or environmental benefits with financial returns, addressing investors’ social, ethical, ecological, and economic concerns. This paper aims to determine whether sustainable investment alternatives yield better financial outcomes compared to traditional indices from both developed and emerging markets. The findings suggest no significant difference between the performance of sustainable and traditional indices.
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Trump is expected to prohibit Chinese telecom equipment in the U.S. next week: Politico
Trump will not meet Xi of China before the March 1 tariff deadline: Bloomberg
It seems Trump cannot enforce another government shutdown: Politico
A slowdown in growth is anticipated for Europe and the UK: MarketWatch
Italy’s industrial output has declined for the fourth consecutive month in December: Bloomberg
The Supreme Court has blocked a Louisiana abortion law in a narrow decision: CNN
The BB&T-SunTrust merger is poised to be the largest U.S. bank deal in a decade: Reuters
Jeff Bezos of Amazon accuses American Media of blackmail: WSJ
U.S. consumer credit exceeded $4 trillion for the first time in December: MW
Jobless claims in the U.S. decreased last week after a spike: Reuters
Supported by the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to pause interest rate increases, corporate bonds have emerged as leaders in the U.S. fixed-income market at the start of 2019. Particularly, junk bonds and long-term corporates have shown impressive performance so far this year, as of the market close on February 6.
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The House Intelligence Committee has announced an investigation into Trump’s financial activities and potential ties to Russia: CNN
Germany’s industrial output continues to decline: Reuters
The European Commission predicts that Germany dodged a recession in Q4: Bloomberg
The European Commission’s Vice President highlights the risks posed by Italy’s fragile economy: CNBC
Manufacturing productivity in the U.S. increased by 1.3% in Q4, up from 1.1% the previous quarter: MW
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed more than expected in November: CNBC
U.S. mortgage applications saw another decline last week, falling to a ten-month low: Reuters
The initial report for U.S. Q4 GDP has been rescheduled for release on February 28: BEA
The GDPNow estimate for U.S. Q4 GDP growth has increased to 2.7%: Atlanta Fed
Recent years have provided a significant opportunity to evaluate the risk-management strategies inherent in tactical portfolio approaches, driven by heightened volatility and rapid shifts in global market dynamics. However, many investors have learned that translating promising theoretical models into practical outcomes remains a formidable challenge.
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Trump’s State of the Union address was extensive: Politico
In his congressional address, Trump reaffirmed his commitment to building the border wall: Reuters
Trump is set to meet North Korea’s Kim later this month in Vietnam: ABC
German factory orders have decreased again in December, raising concerns of recession: Bloomberg
Central banks are increasingly purchasing gold: NY Times
The U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index indicates soft yet steady growth in January: BB
January saw “solid output expansion” for the U.S. private sector as revealed by the Composite PMI: IHS Markit
The Eurozone PMI exhibited a fifth consecutive month of weakened growth in January: IHS Markit
A PMI survey indicates a continuing slowdown in global growth for January: IHS Markit
The anticipated risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) increased to an annualized 4.5% in January after dipping to 4.2% at the end of 2018. The latest estimate for the GMI (an unmanaged market-value-weighted portfolio that includes all the major asset classes except cash) represents the ex ante premium over the projected long-term “risk-free” rate.
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What can we expect from Trump’s State of the Union address tonight?: Bloomberg
Fed Chairman Powell met with Trump at the White House on Monday: CNBC
PMI indicates a slowdown in Eurozone growth for January: IHS Markit
Himalayan glaciers face risks from global warming: USA Today
Should Congress act to stimulate the economy now to prevent a future recession? NY Times
Light-vehicle sales in January fell below 17 million units, the first time since August: AutoWeek
U.S. factory orders sharply decreased in November, continuing a weakening trend over the past year: MW
