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The Capital Spectator: Insights on Investing, Asset Allocation, and Economics

Years ago, I had the privilege of connecting with The Milwaukee Company (TWC), a wealth management firm based in Thiensville, Wisconsin, just north of Milwaukee. What initially started as a casual consulting role focused on research projects for portfolio design, backtesting, and risk analytics has gradually developed into a more formal and ongoing collaboration. As of this month, I’m now considered TWC’s in-house consultant for research, analytics, and portfolio management matters.
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As 2018 draws to a close and only two trading sessions remain, low volatility stands out as the sole major U.S. equity factor with a year-to-date gain, based on a selection of ETFs.
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Congress has adjourned without resolving the partial government shutdown: CNN
Initial data indicates that China’s economy has slowed for the seventh consecutive month as of December: Bloomberg
Recent survey shows more Americans hold Trump responsible for the government shutdown: Reuters
Trump’s economic advisor states that both the Fed Chair and the Treasury Secretary positions are secure: CNBC
Is the recent stock market rebound merely a bear trap? MW
U.S. jobless claims have decreased, suggesting strength in the labor market: Reuters
Consumer Confidence Index for the U.S. has dropped to a five-month low in December: MW

While U.S. stock market volatility has surged in recent months, this increase in risk has not dethroned American equities from their position as the best-performing major asset class over the trailing five-year period, serving as an indicator of value pricing. In stark contrast, broadly defined commodities continue to show significant losses among major asset classes.
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During a visit to troops in Iraq, Trump defends the U.S. withdrawal from Syria: Fox
A U.S. delegation will head to Beijing in January for trade discussions: SCMP
Trump remains steadfast in demanding funding for the border wall: The Hill
World stocks rebounded from a 22-month low following a strong rally on Wall Street: Reuters
Day six of the government shutdown passes without resolution: Bloomberg
Could a prolonged government shutdown shake market confidence and business sentiment? WSJ
U.S. home price growth continued to decelerate in October: HousingWire
The Richmond Fed manufacturing index experienced a sharp decline in December: Bond Buyer
The 10-year-2-year Treasury yield spread rose to a December high of 20 basis points.

The stability of a bull market can be quite delicate. To echo Hemingway’s sentiment, profits from investing can diminish in two phases: gradually, and then suddenly.
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The U.S.-led military coalition has confirmed strikes in Syria from last week: The Hill
Asian stocks continue to decline on Wednesday: Reuters
Trump’s frustration grows with Mnuchin following missteps in calming the markets: CNN
U.S. holiday sales have recorded their most significant increase in six years: WSJ
Oil prices have rebounded after hitting their lowest levels in 1.5 years: CNBC
It appears the U.S. stock market is on the verge of a bear market: Bloomberg
The three-month National Activity Index has dipped to a still-healthy +0.12 in November: Chicago Fed

Warmest holiday wishes to all the readers of The Capital Spectator this Christmas!

Just in time for the festive season. However, it seems Mr. Market doesn’t adhere to holiday schedules.
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In the wake of last week’s stock market downturn, foreign bonds demonstrated the strongest performance among the major asset classes, as indicated by a range of exchange-traded products.
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