While the likelihood of a recession in the U.S. remains relatively low at present, there’s an increasing number of indicators suggesting a slowdown in economic growth. The current expansion, which has lasted nine years, is expected to continue through the end of this year and into the early months of 2019; however, the outlook for the latter half of next year appears uncertain.
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Trump and China’s President Xi are preparing for upcoming trade discussions:Bloomberg
Hillary Clinton advises Europe to restrict migration for political stability:Politico
Tensions escalate as migrants gather at the U.S.-Mexico border:Reuters
Oil prices have reached a 2018 low despite OPEC’s output reduction plans:Reuters
Trump’s conflict with Chief Justice Roberts spills into Thanksgiving:The Hill
Eurozone business activity in November grows at its slowest rate in four years:IHS Markit
U.S. jobless claims rose to a four-month high last week:CNBC
Existing home sales in the U.S. posted the largest annual decline in four years for October:WSJ
A decrease in U.S. durable goods orders for October indicates softer growth in Q4:WSJ
Leading economic indicators suggest the U.S. expansion will moderate:MW
U.S. consumer sentiment remains strong despite a second monthly dip:MW
The significant downturn in equity markets globally has left most regions with negative year-to-date performance, according to a range of exchange-traded funds as of November 20’s closing. The notable exception to this trend is the Middle Eastern stock markets. Although the U.S. market has seen a steep decline in recent weeks, it is barely clinging to a slight gain for 2018—an increase that pales in comparison to the robust performance of Middle Eastern markets this year.
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Trump appears inclined to overlook Saudi Arabia’s role in the Khashoggi killing:The Hill
Trump addresses the special counsel regarding allegations of Russian interference:BBC
The slide in the stock market may indicate warnings regarding the economy:NY Times
The Chinese government advises economists to prioritize state interests:Bloomberg
China is reportedly expanding its island-building activities in the South China Sea:Reuters
The Philippines indicates a move toward closer relations with China:CNN
The GDPNow Q4 estimate for the U.S. has been adjusted down to a moderate +2.5% pace:Atlanta Fed
U.S. housing starts rebounded in October, but the annual figures are now negative:HW
Data concerning the U.S. housing market has shown a downward trend for much of this year. The impact on homebuilder sentiment has remained relatively mild until recently.
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A federal judge has prohibited the Trump administration from enforcing its asylum ban:Fox
Pelosi’s candidacy for Speaker of the House is at risk:Politico
Trump set to designate Venezuela as a state sponsor of terrorism:The Hill
Parts of Northern California are experiencing record-high air pollution:WF Today
Troops stationed at the U.S.-Mexican border are set to return home:Politico
A study predicts that climate change will lead to simultaneous disasters:CBS
Global markets are continuing their downward trajectory:Bloomberg
Bitcoin has plummeted below $4500, down 30% in a week:Reuters
A survey indicates economists estimate a 35% chance of a U.S. recession within the next two years:Reuters
U.S. homebuilder sentiment in November has dropped to its lowest level in over two years:CNBC
As the global market faces a year of persistent selling, the U.S. equity market remains the sole outlier, showing positive returns over the past year compared to other major asset classes, based on exchange-traded products through last week’s closing.
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VP Pence’s stern statements about China have raised concerns over the possibility of a new Cold War:Bloomberg
The EU has communicated to the UK that the Brexit deal is not open for renegotiation:Reuters
UK Prime Minister May is gearing up for a political confrontation with party dissenters regarding Brexit:AP
The death toll from wildfires in Northern California has risen to 77, with more than 10,000 homes destroyed:KGO-TV
Anti-caravan demonstrations took place in Tijuana, Mexico:SDUT
Experts are questioning the yield curve’s predictive reliability:Bloomberg
The U.S. manufacturing sector is grappling with a shortage of skilled workers:MIT Technology Review
Vanguard forecasts that U.S. core inflation will remain around 2%, possibly declining in 2019:Vanguard
The Kansas City Fed’s Manufacturing Index indicates stronger growth in the sector for November:KC Fed
U.S. industrial output’s yearly growth slowed to 4.1% in October:MW
By Robert Skidelsky
Summary via publisher (Yale University Press)
In economics, the prevailing belief is that money and government should play only minor roles. The argument is that economic outcomes fare better when left to the “invisible hand” of the market. Nevertheless, these assertions remain contentious. This insightful new book argues that the omnipresence of uncertainty necessitates the involvement of money and government in any market economy. While classical economics has supported a non-interventionist approach since Adam Smith, the Great Depression ushered in Keynesian economics. Yet the stagflation of the 1970s returned focus to minimal government intervention. The 2008 financial crisis should have prompted a rethinking of this perspective, but instead resulted in harsh austerity and weak recovery. This book seeks to reintroduce Keynesian principles to contemporary economists, advocating for the significant roles of money and government in economic discussions.
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The article above brings together a comprehensive overview of recent developments in the U.S. economy and global affairs as reported on various dates. Each section discusses important issues such as the current recession risk, global financial trends, and the status of governmental policies. As we navigate these complexities, the emphasis remains on understanding the economic landscape.
In summary, the nuances of economic data, international relations, and the interplay of policies will continue to shape our understanding of the macroeconomic environment. Staying informed is crucial as these dynamics evolve.
