The U.S. economy is projected to experience a moderate slowdown in GDP growth during the fourth quarter, as indicated by the median estimate from a collection of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. The reassuring news is that this estimate has remained consistent in recent weeks.
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House passes bill to reopen the government despite Trump’s opposition: The Hill
2-year Treasury rates briefly dipped below the Fed funds rate on Thursday: Reuters
Eurozone Composite PMI indicates the weakest growth in four years: IHS Markit
Caixin China Composite PMI shows a modest growth increase in December: IHS Markit
Dallas Fed chief suggests the central bank should pause rate hikes: CNBC
Consumer confidence in China appears to be declining: NY Times
U.S. jobless claims rose last week; however, they still indicate strength in the labor market: CNBC
ISM Manufacturing Index falls to its lowest level in two years: CNBC
U.S. job cuts increased by 29% in 2018 compared to the previous year: CG&C
U.S. firms expanded their payrolls in December, marking the largest monthly gain in nearly two years: MW
The anticipated risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) decreased to an annualized 4.2% in December, slightly lower than the 4.6% forecasted in the previous month. This revised projection for GMI, which is an unmanaged market-value-weighted portfolio encompassing all the major asset classes, represents the expected premium over the long-run “risk-free” rate.
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Still no indication of an end to the partial government shutdown; another meeting set for Friday: The Hill
Apple reduces sales forecast, citing weak demand in China: Reuters
Apple’s sales warning sends ripples through financial markets: Bloomberg
China’s economy is emerging as a risk factor for international firms: CNBC
Global Manufacturing PMI for December fell to its lowest level in over two years: IHS Markit
U.S. Manufacturing PMI growth slowed to a 15-month low in December: IHS Markit
Eurozone manufacturing also continued to slow in December, according to PMI data: IHS Markit
The Small Business Jobs Index in the U.S. continued its downward trend in December: Paychex
Gold rose to its highest close since June during the first trading day of 2019: Kitco
Nearly every sector of the financial and commodity markets faced challenges in 2018. Outside of a slight increase in cash assets and a flat performance in a broad range of U.S. investment-grade bonds, the previous year largely suffered from losses.
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Trump proposes to negotiate with Democrats regarding the partial government shutdown: Fox
President Xi asserts that Taiwan ‘must and will be’ reunited with China: BBC
Brazil’s newly elected right-wing president promises extensive reforms: CBS
North Korea’s Kim calls on the U.S. to lift sanctions: NY Times
U.S. stock futures decline following disappointing data from China’s manufacturing sector: Bloomberg
Eurozone manufacturing growth continued to decelerate in December: IHS Markit
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index showed surprising weakness in December: Houston Chronicle
China is facing an unavoidable economic slowdown: National Interest
PMI survey data indicates a contraction in China’s manufacturing output for the first time in 19 months: CNBC
A new year brings new opportunities and fresh starts. Wishing everyone all the best for 2019!
Last week, most of the major asset classes showed gains, providing relief following the previous week’s downturn. Led by U.S. equities, stock markets worldwide experienced significant advances during the trading week ending on December 28, based on data from various exchange-traded products.
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Global stocks surged on Monday amid signs of progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations: WSJ
China’s Manufacturing PMI: sector contracts in December, marking its first decrease in two years: CNBC
Economists evaluate the potential impacts of the partial government shutdown in the U.S.: USA Today
The appeal of anti-bubbles in markets — a counterpoint to traditional bubbles: NY Times
Ten geopolitical risks to monitor in 2019: Foreign Policy
Commodities faced another tough year in 2018: Bloomberg
U.S. farmers cautiously approach a significant Pacific trade agreement launching without U.S. involvement: CNBC
U.S. wholesale inventories increased by 0.8% in October: MW
The Chicago PMI reflects robust regional economic conditions in December: MarketWatch
Pending home sales in the U.S. continued to decline in November: CNBC
Last week, I shared the first selection of notable titles that appeared in The Capital Spectator’s weekly Book Bits column in 2018. Here’s the second half of the year-end recap of books worth revisiting.
By Chris Clearfield and Andras Tilcsik
Excerpt via Big Think
We cannot rewind to a simpler time or revert to paper-based systems. Airlines shouldn’t abandon technology, nor should traders retreat from computer systems. Instead, we must learn to navigate and manage these modern systems. Exciting research is emerging that offers insights into overcoming these challenges.
The first step is recognizing that our environment has changed. This realization can be surprisingly difficult, even as organizations tout innovations like blockchain and AI. When we spoke to a former CEO of Knight Capital, many years post-incident, he remarked, “We weren’t a technology company—we were a broker that used technology.” Viewing technology as supplementary rather than central to a business was effective for many years, but that is no longer the case.
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