The latest report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis reveals that the US economy’s growth, adjusted for inflation, decelerated to an annual rate of 2.6% in the fourth quarter. This slowdown was anticipated and represents a decline from the 3.4% increase recorded in the third quarter and the robust 4.2% growth seen in the second quarter of the previous year. This marks the second consecutive quarter of declining growth.
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This year to date, US small-cap value stocks have outperformed other major equity factors, as evidenced by various exchange-traded funds analyzed through February 27. Following closely is the liquidity factor, which ranks as the second-best performer so far this year.
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Trump’s summit with Kim Jong-un ends abruptly without a deal: Reuters
Cohen’s congressional testimony poses potential legal challenges for Trump: Bloomberg
China’s manufacturing sector contracts to a three-year low in February according to recent surveys: CNBC
US factory orders saw a marginal increase in December: CNBC
Pending home sales rebounded in December, although the annual trend remains negative: MW
US trade deficit widened in December, affecting the growth outlook for Q4: CNBC
GDPNow model predicts a slight increase of 1.8% for today’s Q4 GDP report: Atlanta Fed
New residential construction in the United States showed unexpected weakness in December, raising concerns about the ongoing deceleration in economic growth. While housing permits did increase, offering some hope for future activity, a year-long review of both metrics indicates a downward trend. This downturn is likely to pose challenges for the US economy moving forward.
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Pakistan claims to have shot down two Indian jets, increasing the risk of broader conflict: WSJ
Trump states that North Korea has ‘immense’ potential before the summit with Kim: Reuters
The House has passed legislation opposing Trump’s border emergency declaration: Reuters
Economic indicators suggest a potential pickup in China’s growth: Bloomberg
Fed Chairman claims that unlimited borrowing via Modern Monetary Theory is misguided: CNBC
Home prices in the US increased in December at the slowest rate since 2015: CNBC
Richmond Fed reports that manufacturing activity in the region strengthened in February: Richmond Fed
US housing starts dropped to a two-year low in December, but permits indicate a likely rebound: MW
This week’s delayed report on the fourth-quarter US gross domestic product (GDP) is set to confirm that economic growth has continued to decelerate. Scheduled for release on February 28, the Bureau of Economic Analysis is predicting that the economy’s growth has moderated for a second consecutive quarter, based on various forecasts. The data is expected to indicate that the risk of a recession remained low at the end of 2018, although early indicators for 2019 suggest an ongoing trend of deceleration.
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India carries out an airstrike in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir: Fox
Congress is moving closer to rejecting Trump’s emergency declaration: Politico
Vice President Pence announces new sanctions against Maduro’s regime in Venezuela: CBS
UK Prime Minister May is expected to rule out a no-Brexit deal: Reuters
North Korea’s Kim has arrived in Vietnam for a meeting with Trump: Reuters
Manufacturing activity in Texas has slowed in February, though the outlook remains favorable: Dallas Fed
US wholesale inventories experienced a notable increase of 1.1% in December: MW
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index indicates that US economic growth slowed in January: Chicago Fed
Emerging-market stocks drove a surge in global markets last week, leading to widespread gains across various asset classes, according to data from exchange-traded products.
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Trump announces a delay in tariff increases on Chinese goods: WSJ
Beijing expresses cautious optimism regarding a potential US-China trade agreement: SCMP
Experts question whether a US-China trade agreement will halt the global economic slowdown: CNBC
Trump and Kim are considering a declaration to officially end the Korean War (1950-53): NY Times
NABE survey reveals that over 75% of economists predict a recession by 2021: Bloomberg
US stock market volatility (VIX Index) fell to a five-month low on Friday:
By Brent Goldfarb and David A. Kirsch
Summary via publisher (Stanford University Press)
Financial market bubbles are recurrent and often painful reminders of capitalism’s complexities. While many studies focus on financial manias and crises, few compare turbulent times with stable periods. In “Bubbles and Crashes,” Brent Goldfarb and David A. Kirsch provide fresh insights into the origins of speculative booms and busts, highlighting a particular class of assets—major technological innovations—that may sometimes create bubbles. This approach is crucial in understanding the underlying causes of these financial phenomena.
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