Last week, a surge in global risk appetite resulted in gains across major asset classes, as reflected by various exchange-traded products through Friday, February 1.
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A potential government shutdown looms in the US: Bloomberg
US and Russia have suspended a nuclear treaty, raising concerns about a new arms race: CNBC
The UK and Spain recognize Guaidó as the president of Venezuela: BBC
The Pope makes a historic visit to the Middle East: BBC
Big tech companies are no longer the primary drivers of the stock market: NY Times
Consumer sentiment in the US dropped in January, reaching its lowest point since the Trump election: MW
ISM reports indicate an increase in US manufacturing activity in January: CNN
US Manufacturing PMI shows that production levels strengthened to a four-month high in January: IHS Markit
US payrolls increased significantly in January, surpassing forecasts: Bloomberg
US construction spending rose by 0.8% in November: MW
Crude oil prices (West Texas Intermediate) reached their highest closing price since mid-November:
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Review via The Washington Post
The phrase “downhill from here” carries a dual meaning regarding retirement security in America. It can evoke a serene descent after a lifetime of hard work, but it also implies a challenging journey into difficulty and hardship. Katherine S. Newman grips this contrast effectively in her insightful book, “Downhill From Here: Retirement Insecurity in the Age of Inequality,” shedding light on the stark reality of what retirement signifies today versus its original promise.
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The Labor Department reports that US employers maintained strong hiring levels in January. The addition of 296,000 jobs exceeded expectations significantly. Furthermore, the annual growth rate for the nonfarm workforce in the private sector reached its strongest level in nearly three years.
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January marked a substantial rebound in global markets, lifting all major asset classes as risk sentiment surged. This optimistic commencement for 2019 sharply contrasts with the preceding month’s downturn, which resulted in widespread losses.
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Trump expresses optimism regarding trade discussions with China: WSJ
Trump labels border discussions with Congress a ‘waste of time’: NY Times
Economists predict weaker growth in January’s payrolls report: Bloomberg
The government shutdown may complicate the analysis of today’s payroll report: NY Times
Eurozone manufacturing is inching closer to stagnation in January: IHS Markit
China’s Manufacturing PMI indicates a slight contraction in January: IHS Markit
The Fed’s pause on interest rate hikes suggests softer economic growth ahead: Reuters
Chicago PMI shows that growth cooled to a moderate pace in January: Chicago PMI
US wage growth in Q4 exceeded 3% for the first time in a decade: CNBC
US job cuts rose by 19% year-over-year in January: CG&C
Jobless claims in the US soared last week, potentially due to seasonal factors: MW
New home sales in the US surged in November, though the annual rate remains negative: WSJ
The highly anticipated release of the US gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter remains pending, largely due to the lasting impacts of the recent government shutdown. Fortunately, once the Bureau of Economic Analysis announces the figures (with the release date still “to be determined”), expectations suggest the anticipated slowdown in Q4 growth will be moderate. However, it remains uncertain whether this trend will persist into this year, as limited data is available for 2019.
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The Fed maintains steady interest rates, indicating a potential pause in future hikes: Reuters
Investors are increasingly attentive to the Fed’s quantitative tightening policy: NY Times
The Fed’s pause reduces pressure on emerging markets: Bloomberg
PMI survey shows contraction in China’s manufacturing sector for the second consecutive month in January: CNBC
Italy’s economy has contracted for the second quarter in Q4: Reuters
Senate leader focused on preventing another government shutdown: Politico
Pending home sales in the US fell 9.8% year-over-year in December, marking the 12th consecutive annual decline: CNBC
According to ADP, US companies added a robust 213,000 jobs in January: MW
In January, US companies expanded their payrolls by 213,000 positions, as reported by the ADP National Employment Report. While this increase is below December’s substantial 263,000 gain, it still indicates a healthy labor market growth. This report helps to alleviate concerns about an imminent recession. The findings, coupled with Monday’s positive data from the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December, align with the cautiously optimistic assessment of the US business cycle published earlier this month.
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The start of the new year has been favorable for international stocks. All major global regions have reported year-to-date gains as of January 29. Notably, equity markets in Latin America and Eastern Europe/Russia are significantly outperforming the rest of the globe, as indicated by various exchange-traded products.
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