The Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank’s latest survey indicates continued growth in Tenth District energy activity, including Oklahoma, with expectations for ongoing expansion over the next six months. Key insights from the survey, conducted between September 15-30, 2026, include:
- Increased Drilling Activity: Firms reported heightened drilling activity, driven by capital investment, which has grown at its fastest pace in four years.
- Profitability Thresholds: Survey participants noted that oil prices need to average $64 per barrel for drilling to be profitable, rising to $85 for substantial increases in drilling. Similarly, natural gas prices must be $3.59 per million Btu for profitability, with a substantial increase requiring $4.70.
- Future Price Expectations: Many firms expect oil prices to stabilize around $85 per barrel in the coming months. In contrast, half anticipate lower prices, while a third expect stability.
- Productivity Factors: Technology and automation improvements were identified by 38% of respondents as the primary enabler for increasing production without hiring additional workers.
- Fuel Price Spread Expectations: Firms predict varying timelines for the gasoline-crude oil spread to return to 2025 levels, with a majority expecting this to take 3-4 quarters.
The Tenth District Energy Survey provides crucial insights into industry health and projections for key economic indicators, influencing broader economic planning and policy. For further details, refer to the full survey report.
