Cox Automotive Raises Full-Year New-Vehicle Sales Forecast
Key Highlights:
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September Sales Outlook: New-vehicle sales are anticipated to end near 16.3 million, showing a decline from August’s pace of 16.8 million and last year’s rate of 16.6 million. However, this represents a 6.5% yearly increase.
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Q3 Sales Volume: Forecasted at 4.12 million, which is lower than the previous quarter and from last year. Despite this, the full-year forecast has been increased to 16.1 million new-vehicle sales, up from 15.8 million, due to sustained demand.
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Market Share Trends: Asian brands are gaining market share, while the Detroit 3 are expected to have their lowest share on record.
Insight from Cox Automotive:
Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist, noted that while inflation and low consumer confidence persist, the market remains robust, largely driven by affluent buyers and strong fleet sales.
Sales Forecast by Vehicle Segment:
- Compact SUV/Crossover: 230,000 units
- Mid-Size SUV/Crossover: 230,000 units
- Full-Size Pickup Truck: 190,000 units
- Subcompact SUV/Crossover: 128,000 units
- Compact Car: 100,000 units
Q3 and Year-to-Date Overview:
- GM remains the top seller, though its market share has declined. Toyota is closing the gap with an expected increase in sales.
- The full-year 2026 forecast reflects resilience against economic challenges, with an upward revision following strong summer performance.
Conclusion: Cox Automotive’s updated outlook emphasizes the resilience of the automotive market amidst economic pressures, highlighting significant market shifts towards Asian brands and sustained consumer demand.
