After an impressive run, the upward trend in global markets faced an unexpected halt in February. For over a year, most major asset classes experienced continuous monthly increases. However, last month marked a significant shift, with every leading asset class registering losses, with the exception of cash as represented by the S&P US T-Bill 0-3 Month Index, which saw a slight rise in February.
Continue reading
Trump urges legislators to pass new gun control measures: LA Times
Anticipating today’s announcements, Trump is set to implement tariffs on steel and aluminum imports: Bloomberg
Concerns rise over the future of Trump’s infrastructure plan: Fiscal Times
US Q4 2017 GDP growth has been slightly downgraded to 2.5%: The Hill
Pending Home Sales Index in the US declined by 4.7% in January: Reuters
Chicago PMI falls to a six-month low in February: MarketWatch
Could a debt crisis be looming for the US? The Grumpy Economist
Larry Summers warns that the forthcoming recession could extend beyond the downturn of 2008-09: Bloomberg
February saw the end of the US stock market’s ten-month winning streak, the longest since 1959: CNBC
The yield curve continues to flatten following the Fed Chair’s positive economic outlook: Reuters
In his inaugural address as the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell stated that “a recession is always a possibility, but I don’t currently deem it a significant concern.” Powell emphasized to the House Financial Services Committee that he anticipates “the next two years to be positive for the economy.”
Continue reading
United Nations report: North Korea ‘supplying materials’ for Syria’s chemical weapons: BBC
Fed Chair Powell indicates possible rate hikes beyond three for this year: CNBC
Global equity markets continue to struggle following Powell’s remarks: Bloomberg
Is the low unemployment rate in the US sustainable? The future is uncertain: NY Times
US durable goods orders decreased by 3.7% in January alongside another decline in business investment: MW
The US trade deficit widened in January, indicating more pressure on Q1 GDP: MW
GDPNow now predicts US GDP growth of 2.6% in Q1: Atlanta Fed
Wholesale inventories in January rose by 0.4% in the US: CNBC
US home prices continue to rise, though indications of a slower pace are starting to appear: HousingWire
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index reaches the second highest level ever recorded: Bond Buyer
Did low-volatility strategies succeed during the recent market downturn? Wealth Mgt
Treasury yields increased following the testimony of the Fed Chair in the House: Reuters
The median prediction for US GDP growth in the first quarter suggests a slight acceleration, according to multiple forecasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. If accurate, this would indicate improved output compared to the 2.6% increase observed in the fourth quarter of the previous year.
Continue reading
International Energy Agency: The US will surpass Russia as the top oil producer in 2019: Reuters
Efforts toward gun control are facing challenges in the Senate: Politico
What to expect during Fed Chair Powell’s testimony today: MarketWatch
Global stock markets are rallying to three-week highs ahead of the Fed chair’s congressional debut: Reuters
St. Louis Fed President expresses concern that rate hikes could occur too rapidly: Reuters
Fed’s Quarles expresses optimism about the current state of the economy: CNBC
The US economy showed slight expansion in January, though at a softer pace: Chicago Fed
IRS demands that Coinbase, a cryptocurrency broker, provide its records: Digital Trends
Dallas Fed reports that manufacturing activity is at its highest since 2005: San Antonio Exp News
US new home sales dropped to a five-month low in December: CNBC
Last week, broadly defined commodities excelled among the major asset classes, according to various exchange-traded products. This performance surge follows a renewed expectation of rising inflation both in the US and globally.
Continue reading
China moves to enable Xi Jinping to remain president indefinitely: WaPo
Mexico’s president cancels a White House visit following a conversation with Trump: LA Times
Treasury yields have dipped ahead of the Fed Chair’s first congressional testimony: MW
Peter Navarro, known for his skepticism about trade, has received a promotion in the White House: NY Times
Warren Buffett emphasizes the need for patience in a market characterized by high valuations: Bloomberg
A rise in transportation costs may signal another inflationary concern: Reuters
Data breaches reached unprecedented levels in 2017: Thales
The United States is facing its worst flu season since 2009-2010: FiveThirtyEight
Is factor-based allocation more effective than traditional asset allocation? Alpha Architect
Positive performance in junk bonds might bode well for stocks: FMD Capital
Bridgewater’s short position on European equities intensifies: Barron’s
The US financial stress level decreases for the first time in five weeks: St. Louis Fed
By Gregg Easterbrook
Summary via publisher (Public Affairs)
Is civilization teetering on the brink? Or are we actually reaching new heights? Many who consume news would argue that 2017 has been one of the bleakest years in recent times. Society grapples with various pressing issues: extremism, terrorism, environmental degradation, and deepening social and economic divides. Yet, this narrative overlooks a significant reality: by nearly every relevant measure, today’s world is improving. In the US, we see ongoing declines in disease, crime, and pollution, while life expectancy and educational attainment are on the rise, alongside unprecedented economic indicators. Globally, the numbers of those suffering from malnutrition and extreme poverty are at historic lows, and the likelihood of death due to conflict or violence has never been lower. This discordance arises from the distorting effects of social media, political rhetoric, and inherent biases.
Continue reading
The recent spike in market volatility affected various sectors, yet technology continues to demonstrate resilience, as indicated by a range of sector ETFs. While a technology-focused fund is currently trading below its recent peaks, the sector has generally rebounded from the early February decline and maintains a strong performance year-over-year compared to other sectors.
Continue reading
