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The Capital Spectator: Investing, Asset Allocation, and Economics Insights

Biden critiques Warren and Sanders regarding the costs of their healthcare plans:
Reuters

The ECB introduces a new stimulus strategy to combat Europe’s economic downturn:
CNBC

China broadens tariff exemptions for certain US goods:
Bloomberg

Trump hints at a possible interim trade agreement with China:
CNBC

US budget deficit exceeds $1 trillion for the first time in seven years:
WSJ

Is the US on the brink of recession or experiencing slow growth?
NY Times

US jobless claims fell to their lowest level in five months last week:
MW

The annual rate of US core consumer inflation surged to an 11-year high in August:
CNBC


Over the past decade, risk management has become paramount for investors, significantly shaped by the financial crisis and recession of 2008-2009. This event sparked a widespread reevaluation of strategies to mitigate risk without sacrificing potential returns. A key question that arises is whether simplicity can play a competitive role in this context. To explore this, consider a straightforward strategy that alternates between two BlackRock asset allocation ETFs.

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Trump postpones tariffs on China as trade negotiations unfold:
BBC

Supreme Court approves new asylum regulations:
CNN

European Central Bank expected to initiate a fresh stimulus package:
CNBC

Potential for a new refugee crisis in Europe looms:
NY Times

US surpasses Saudi Arabia in oil exports for June:
Bloomberg

Wholesale inflation in the US slightly increased to a subdued 1.8% in August:
MW

Eurozone industrial output declined more than anticipated in July:
FT


While economic growth has slowed, current indicators do not suggest a significant downturn is imminent. The economy remains on a steady path, albeit at a slower rate.

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Trump unexpectedly dismisses Bolton, the national security advisor:
The Hill

Stagnation in median US household income reported for 2018:
WSJ

China lifts tariffs on certain US products:
Axios

Some US companies are canceling investments in China at an increasing rate:
CNBC

California enacts legislation requiring contractors to be classified as employees:
NY Times

Despite a positive outlook, US small business optimism faces challenges as of August:
NFIB

Job openings in the US are still high but have shown a downward trend in July:
CNBC


Globally, the economy seems to be slowing, with some experts signaling that the risk of recession is increasing. However, as evidenced by the year-to-date performance of equities in key economic regions, traders do not appear overly concerned.

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UK Parliament suspends activities as Brexit reaches a critical stage:
CNBC

Prime Minister Johnson insists on avoiding further delays to Brexit:
Reuters

North Korea launches projectiles despite offering new discussions with the US:
Time

Germany’s 30-year bond yield briefly surpasses 0%:
Reuters

Multiple states intensify their inquiries into Google and Facebook:
Wired

US consumer borrowing in July saw the largest increase since 2017:
CNBC

Perceptions of US debt levels appear far worse than generally acknowledged:
CNBC

While the risk of a US recession seems low, contraction may still arrive soon:
MW

Deflation in Chinese manufacturing suggests a deepening slowdown:
Bloomberg


Emerging markets have witnessed a significant rebound over the past week, achieving the highest performance among major asset classes based on a variety of exchange-traded funds—a notable success during a trading week where nearly all global markets experienced gains.

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A typhoon strikes Japan, plunging nearly a million households into darkness:
CNN

About 1,500 deaths in France are linked to the summer heat:
BBC

US job growth lagged expectations in August:
CNBC

The UK economy grew more robustly than anticipated in July:
Reuters

Is China’s economic slowdown more severe than reported?
WSJ

China’s gold reserves increased by 5% in August:
FXStreet

Could a manufacturing recession hinder Trump’s re-election?
Bloomberg

The ‘Volfefe index’ measures the impact of Trump’s tweets on the bond market:
CNBC

The VIX Index, known as the “fear gauge” for US stocks, fell to its lowest level since July last Friday:






The Economists’ Hour: False Prophets, Free Markets, and the Fracture of Society


By Binyamin Appelbaum
Review via Reuters
What accounts for the rallying cry of “free markets”? This term invokes strong feelings in certain circles. In “The Economists’ Hour: False Prophets, Free Markets, and the Fracture of Society”, Binyamin Appelbaum recounts the outcomes when these ideological proponents were empowered to implement their ideas. This narrative is far from pleasant.
Like many misguided beliefs about society, the notion of free markets appears to be straightforward, alluring, yet fundamentally incorrect. It’s comforting to think that if governments refrain from intervening, markets will naturally self-regulate. This outlook is appealing: it alleviates the need for oversight or assessment if price signals from a self-sustaining market could perform the economic function. However, it is erroneous: human behavior and the contemporary economy do not conform to these economists’ assumptions. Appelbaum’s account offers considerable evidence supporting this view.
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