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<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/humble.06feb2025.png"><img decoding="async" class="wp-image-23511 alignleft" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/humble.06feb2025.png" alt="" width="145" height="219" /></a>● <a href="https://amzn.to/4jKegdn">The Humble Investor: How to Find a Winning Edge in a Surprising World</a><br/>Daniel Rasmussen<br/><strong><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-10/podcast-the-problem-with-financial-forecasts-is-they-re-usually-wrong">Interview</a> with the author via Bloomberg</strong><br/>Financial forecasting plays a crucial role in both finance and economics. Institutions such as banks rely on these predictions to evaluate the future performance of companies, while governments use them to inform budgeting decisions. However, the accuracy of these forecasts—upon which countless decisions rely—is often disappointing. Daniel Rasmussen, founder of Verdad Advisers and author of *The Humble Investor: How to Find a Winning Edge in a Surprising World*, discussed this topic in a recent episode of Merryn Talks Money.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-08-february-2025/#more-23493" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-08-february-2025/" title="7:37 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-02-08T07:37:35-05:00">February 8, 2025</time></a>
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<p>So far in 2025, the markets are thriving. Major sectors in the US equities market have reported gains year-to-date, with financials and health care leading the charge according to a recent analysis of ETFs up to February 6.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/financials-health-care-sectors-leading-us-stocks-higher-in-2025/#more-23515" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/financials-health-care-sectors-leading-us-stocks-higher-in-2025/" title="7:22 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-02-07T07:22:07-05:00">February 7, 2025</time></a>
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<p><strong>US jobless claims <a href="https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-3d5f43e513f28b510c64a3fcc0a63cd2">increased slightly</a> last week, but remain at a low level.</strong> The recent rise of 11,000 new applications for unemployment benefits during the week ending February 1 reflects a moderate range compared to historical data and is close to a multi-decade low. The latest figures indicate that the labor market will likely continue to grow robustly.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/claims.07feb2025.png"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-23513" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/claims.07feb2025.png" alt="" width="2504" height="1820" /></a></p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-07-february-2025/#more-23512" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-07-february-2025/" title="6:33 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-02-07T06:33:21-05:00">February 7, 2025</time></a>
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<p>Years ago, a TV commercial featured a toy called Weebles, with the tagline “They wobble, but they don’t fall down.” This phrase resonates with recent market movements. Since his return to the White House last month, President Trump has introduced a series of policy changes and statements that have created turbulence in the markets, disrupting economic expectations. However, after recent fluctuations, the upward trend in markets appears to be battered but largely intact.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-on-sentiment-endures-despite-trade-uncertainty/#more-23505" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-on-sentiment-endures-despite-trade-uncertainty/" title="7:13 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-02-06T07:13:43-05:00">February 6, 2025</time></a>
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<p><strong>US companies ramped up hiring in January, according to the ADP Employment Report.</strong> Private payrolls saw an increase of 183,000, indicating a quicker pace for the second consecutive month. “The hiring momentum from the last quarter of 2024 carried into January, though certain sectors like manufacturing showed exceptions,” <a href="https://adpemploymentreport.com/">noted</a> Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist. “We experienced a strong start to 2025, but this masked a disparity within the labor market. Industries catering to consumers drove hiring, while job growth was weaker in business services and production.”</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/adp.06feb2025.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-23502" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/adp.06feb2025.png" alt="" width="587" height="321" /></a></p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-06-february-2025/#more-23501" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-06-february-2025/" title="6:12 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-02-06T06:12:44-05:00">February 6, 2025</time></a>
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<p>President Trump’s remarks and executive orders have unsettled markets and investor sentiment. Nevertheless, the Treasury market remains relatively stable. This situation may change, but for now, key government bond yields are flat or slightly decreasing over recent days.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/treasury-yields-edge-lower-despite-threat-of-trade-war/#more-23497" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/treasury-yields-edge-lower-despite-threat-of-trade-war/" title="7:37 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-02-05T07:37:03-05:00">February 5, 2025</time></a>
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<p><strong>US job openings <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm">declined to a three-month low in December.</a></strong> This reduction highlights a continuing trend in decreasing openings, suggesting a potential slowdown in the expansion of the labor market. According to Nancy Vanden Houten, lead economist at Oxford Economics, this data aligns with the Fed’s assessment that the labor market is healthy enough to adopt a more measured approach to rate reductions, especially amidst uncertainties regarding tariff policies.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/job.openings.-05feb2025.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-23495" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/job.openings.-05feb2025.png" alt="" width="960" height="540" /></a></p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-05-february-2025/#more-23494" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-05-february-2025/" title="6:34 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-02-05T06:34:26-05:00">February 5, 2025</time></a>
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<p>The long-term expected return for the Global Market Index (GMI) remained above 7% for the third consecutive month in January, showing an increase compared to <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/total-return-forecasts-major-asset-classes-03-january-2025/">December’s forecast.</a> This revised projection, based on three models described below, signifies the most optimistic return outlook in recent times for this diversified global benchmark.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/total-return-forecasts-major-asset-classes-04-february-2025/#more-23488" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/total-return-forecasts-major-asset-classes-04-february-2025/" title="7:22 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-02-04T07:22:28-05:00">February 4, 2025</time></a>
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<p><strong>President Trump <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/03/trump-canada-tariffs-trudeau.html">suspended tariffs</a> on Canada and Mexico for 30 days, while China declared its own tariffs on specific US exports.</strong> Additionally, Beijing has placed two American companies on its list of unreliable entities, stating they “violated normal market trading principles,” and is currently investigating Google. “These actions serve as a warning that China is prepared to threaten US interests if necessary while still allowing room for negotiation,” <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/04/china-levies-tariffs-on-select-us-imports-starting-feb-10.html">wrote</a> Julian Evans Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics in a recent note.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/us.trade_.def_.04feb2025.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-23486" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/us.trade_.def_.04feb2025.png" alt="" width="1228" height="998" /></a></p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-04-february-2025/#more-23484" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-04-february-2025/" title="6:55 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-02-04T06:55:16-05:00">February 4, 2025</time></a>
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<p>January proved to be favorable for major asset classes, bouncing back strongly from a <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-december-2024-performance-review/">rough December.</a> Across-the-board gains in January point to an optimistic year ahead for the markets. However, this positive news quickly dimmed after President Trump announced <a href="https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-retaliation-trudeau-sheinbaum-70e067b092a3af72c2eb7ca37d532c91">wide-ranging tariffs</a> on Canada, Mexico, and China, potentially leading to increased inflation and a slowdown in growth that could disrupt the global trading landscape and markets.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-january-2025-performance-review/#more-23481" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-january-2025-performance-review/" title="8:02 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-02-03T08:02:16-05:00">February 3, 2025</time></a>
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