The unemployment rate in the U.S. held steady at 4.2% in April, with nonfarm payrolls experiencing a seasonally adjusted increase of 177,000 this past month. “Recession fears can be set aside for now. Job numbers are robust, demonstrating notable resilience in the economy prior to any potential tariff impacts,” stated Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. “While the economy may face challenges in the upcoming months, the existing momentum gives the U.S. a fair chance to steer clear of recession if it can effectively manage the tariff situation.”
● The Singularity Paradox: Bridging the Gap Between Humanity and AI
Anders Indset and Florian Neukart
Summary via publisher (Wiley)
The Singularity Paradox explores how the convergence of biology, neuroscience, and artificial intelligence can result in the emergence of Artificial Human Intelligence (AHI). This evolution represents a conscious response to the unconscious rise of superintelligence. The book addresses the delicate balance between the vast potential of technological innovation and the looming risk of losing human agency, control, and significance. AHI could prove crucial in navigating this singularity and countering its possible adverse effects. By examining the merging of humanity and technology, it sheds light on the ethical, social, and scientific ramifications of this transition from a novel standpoint.
The projected long-term total return for the Global Market Index (GMI) rose slightly in April, increasing to an annualized 7.0%, compared to the previous month’s figure of 6.9%. This assessment is derived from three models (described below) for GMI, a global benchmark reflecting a market-value weighted compilation of the key asset classes—excluding cash—around the world.
The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the second consecutive month in April, as indicated by the ISM Manufacturing Index, which surveys the industry. This disappointing data suggests that the short-lived recovery observed after a 26-month period of decline has dissipated. “Demand and production weakened while input costs continued to rise—this is not a favorable sign for economic growth,” noted Timothy Fiore, chair of the Institute for Supply Management, in a recent press release.
International markets continued their upward momentum in March, leading the returns for major asset classes and maintaining a bullish trend for foreign assets in 2025, as reflected by a range of ETFs. Conversely, U.S. stocks, junk bonds, and real estate shares continued to decline. Commodities, in particular, experienced a significant downturn in March.
The U.S. economy experienced a contraction in the first quarter, as per the preliminary government GDP estimates for January through March. A major contributor to the 0.3% decline was a spike in imports, which detracts from GDP growth. Imports affected the overall growth rate by nearly five percentage points, marking the largest negative impact for this category since 1947. “Some of this downturn may stem from businesses rushing to import goods before the tariffs escalate, but there’s no way to downplay this data. Growth has effectively disappeared,” commented Chris Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds.
International diversification has proven to be a successful strategy for equities this year. Trends across all primary regions globally continue to outperform U.S. shares, which are still reflecting losses thus far in 2025, as demonstrated by various ETFs through Tuesday’s close (April 29).
The number of job openings in the U.S. dropped in March, reaching the lowest level since September. Although openings remain above pre-pandemic figures, this latest decline is part of a trend that has persisted since peaking in March 2022.
The forecast for U.S. economic growth suggests a notably weaker performance in the initial estimate of first-quarter GDP, based on the average projections compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
On Monday, Treasury Secretary Bessent remarked that it is up to China to resolve the ongoing trade disagreements with the U.S. “It is China’s responsibility to de-escalate, given that they export to us five times more than we export to them. These 120% to 145% tariffs are simply not tenable,” she stated.
