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March witnessed another positive shift for assets in emerging markets, with both stocks and bonds showing strong performance for two consecutive months. Leading the charge, equities outperformed in the closing stretch of the first quarter, as the MSCI Emerging Markets Index surged by 3.1% last month. Following closely were government bonds in emerging markets, which climbed by 2.8%, according to the Citigroup ESBI. In contrast, developed market stocks experienced a decline of 0.6% in March, as indicated by the MSCI EAFE Index.
<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-mar-2014-performance-review/#more-3410" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-mar-2014-performance-review/" title="10:28 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2014-04-01T10:28:12-04:00">April 1, 2014</time></a>
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The ISM Manufacturing Index is anticipated to hold steady at 53.2 in tomorrow's March update, consistent with The Capital Spectator’s median econometric forecast. However, this forecast is slightly below the estimates from three consensus surveys among economists.
<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/ism-manufacturing-index-mar-2014-preview/#more-3408" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/ism-manufacturing-index-mar-2014-preview/" title="2:09 pm" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2014-03-31T14:09:44-04:00">March 31, 2014</time></a>
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Supply and demand remain central to predicting price trajectories, although geopolitical factors frequently come into play, particularly in the oil market. Nonetheless, the fundamental principles of economics ultimately prevail—even when it comes to one of the world's most valuable commodities.
<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-rising-oil-output-bring-down-prices/#more-3404" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-rising-oil-output-bring-down-prices/" title="4:35 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2014-03-31T04:35:04-04:00">March 31, 2014</time></a>
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● <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/067443000X/ref=as_li_tf_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=067443000X&linkCode=as2&tag=thecapitalspe-20">Capital in the Twenty-First Century</a><img decoding="async" src="http://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=thecapitalspe-20&l=as2&o=1&a=067443000X" width="1" height="1" border="0" alt="" style="border:none !important; margin:0px !important;"/><br/>
By Thomas Piketty<br/><a href="http://www.newyorker.com/arts/critics/books/2014/03/31/140331crbo_books_cassidy"><strong>Review</strong></a> via The New Yorker<br/>
In the world of academic publishing, it is rare for a book to receive such heightened anticipation that a publisher chooses to expedite its release. This was the case for “Capital in the Twenty-first Century,” an expansive exploration of increasing inequality by French economist Thomas Piketty. Internationally recognized economist Branko Milanovic deemed the French edition, released last year, as “one of the watershed books in economic thinking.” The Economist even suggested that this book might alter our understanding of two centuries of economic history. Few economics books have garnered this kind of attention in recent years.
<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-3-29-14-2/#more-3387" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-3-29-14-2/" title="4:14 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2014-03-29T04:14:33-04:00">March 29, 2014</time></a>
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Recent data on personal income and spending in February has brought some optimism, according to today’s <a href="http://bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm">release</a>. <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/personal-consumption-expenditures-feb-2014-preview/#more-3388">As expected,</a> modest growth was evident as Americans increased their spending slightly compared to January. This marks the second consecutive monthly increase. The 0.3% gains for both disposable personal income (DPI) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) may not seem particularly significant, but considering the challenges posed by harsh winter conditions, these figures are encouraging. More importantly, year-over-year figures remain solidly above zero, suggesting that fears regarding the business cycle's trajectory may have been overstated.
<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/more-modest-gains-for-personal-income-spending/#more-3401" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/more-modest-gains-for-personal-income-spending/" title="2:23 pm" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2014-03-28T14:23:53-04:00">March 28, 2014</time></a>
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Tomorrow's report on US personal consumption spending for February is expected to reveal a gain of 0.3% compared to the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s median econometric forecast. This figure is slightly below January's 0.4% increase. The median forecast for February aligns with the consensus estimates from three economist surveys.
<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/personal-consumption-expenditures-feb-2014-preview/#more-3388" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/personal-consumption-expenditures-feb-2014-preview/" title="1:10 pm" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2014-03-27T13:10:30-04:00">March 27, 2014</time></a>
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Selection bias is rampant in financial journalism, for understandable reasons (obvious to those in publishing). The average reader isn’t keen on engaging with rigorous analyses of investment performance—such discussions can be quite dry. Instead, there is a preference for sensational stories that profile individuals who have overcome challenges to achieve remarkable returns. A recent example caught my eye, showcasing the familiar narrative: the path to exceptional returns often lies in adopting extreme strategies. Specifically, this narrative emphasized a “concentrated” value portfolio that minimizes the number of holdings, zeroing in on a tightly curated selection of securities with the highest expected returns. This approach dismisses indexing and widespread asset diversification, promising readers that success is just around the corner.
<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/discovering-the-genius-du-jour/#more-3385" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/discovering-the-genius-du-jour/" title="11:22 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2014-03-26T11:22:59-04:00">March 26, 2014</time></a>
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The outlook for the US economy may deteriorate further before it improves. The GDP is projected to grow at a rate of 2.0% (real seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2014, based on The Capital Spectator’s median nowcast. This revised estimate is down from the earlier 2.4% nowcast published on February 25.
<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/q12014-us-gdp-nowcast-2-0-3-25-2014/#more-3380" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/q12014-us-gdp-nowcast-2-0-3-25-2014/" title="4:43 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2014-03-25T04:43:03-04:00">March 25, 2014</time></a>
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After discussing asset allocation and rebalancing, the next crucial step is determining the weights for each asset in the portfolio. Once reasonable asset classes have been selected and strategies for rebalancing established, the focus shifts to asset weights. However, determining weightings can be more complex than asset allocation or rebalancing decisions. In practice, some intelligent guidelines can assist in crafting a portfolio that is close to the long-term optimal allocation—maximizing expected returns for a given level of risk. Conversely, determining weights demands a deeper analytical approach for achieving a favorable outcome.
<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/weight-management-with-minimum-volatility-portfolios/#more-3378" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/weight-management-with-minimum-volatility-portfolios/" title="12:48 pm" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2014-03-24T12:48:13-04:00">March 24, 2014</time></a>
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● <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0745333281/ref=as_li_tf_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0745333281&linkCode=as2&tag=thecapitalspe-20">Against Austerity: How We Can Fix the Crisis They Made</a><img decoding="async" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" alt="" src="http://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=thecapitalspe-20&l=as2&o=1&a=0745333281" width="1" height="1" border="0"/><br/>
By Richard Seymour<br/><strong><a href="http://www.plutobooks.com/display.asp?K=9780745333281">Summary</a> by publisher, Pluto Press</strong><br/>
Five years into capitalism’s most profound crisis, which has brought austerity and economic hardship worldwide, *Against Austerity* delves into the puzzling question of why the wealthy continue to prosper. Why are protests transient? Why does the left seem disconnected from the political landscape? In a thought-provoking analysis that challenges the notions of capitalism, class, and ideology, Richard Seymour argues that ‘austerity’ is merely a component of a broader elite agenda to drastically reshape society and daily life to benefit profit, consumerism, and speculative finance.
<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-3-22-14/#more-3373" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-3-22-14/" title="4:36 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2014-03-22T04:36:29-04:00">March 22, 2014</time></a>
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