This year has offered little respite for US equity beta strategies, revealing a significant variance in losses across different risk factors, as demonstrated by selected exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Factors that have experienced the least damage to date include large-cap growth, momentum, and low-volatility funds. In stark contrast, small-cap strategies and mid-cap value have endured the most significant setbacks.
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is currently in intensive care due to COVID-19: CNBC
House Speaker Pelosi announces the next economic stimulus package could reach $1 trillion: Bloomberg
There are signs of cautious optimism as Europe’s coronavirus outbreak appears to be slowing: CNBC
For the first time, no COVID-19 deaths have been reported in China: BBC
Japan is set to implement a nearly $1 trillion stimulus package to address the crisis: Reuters
The Federal Reserve and Treasury are developing a new policy for small-business payroll loans: WSJ
The 2-year Treasury yield has rebounded from a seven-year low:
After weeks of decline, broadly defined commodities experienced a significant rebound last week (up until April 3), marking the largest gain among major asset classes based on a selection of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This marks the first increase in six weeks for raw materials, and while it may be short-lived, the future looks brighter for this sector within the markets.
The US is bracing for a challenging week in its efforts to combat the coronavirus: Reuters
Shutdowns have left at least a quarter of the US economy inactive: WSJ
Emerging economies are facing increasing challenges due to rising default risks: FT
Bankrupt hospitals are finding renewed demand during the current crisis: WSJ
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been hospitalized due to COVID-19: Slate
The OPEC meeting concerning production cuts has been postponed amidst a saturated oil market: NY Times
Without a deal on output cuts, oil prices could plummet: CNBC
German factory orders fell in February, prior to the fallout from the pandemic: Reuters
US payrolls saw a decline of 701,000 in March: CNBC
Bloomberg tracks a global recession that began in March: Bloomberg
On a global scale, reported cases of COVID-19 continue to exceed initial forecasts, based on an 8-model combination estimate from CapitalSpectator.com. This suggests that achieving a peak worldwide may still be some time away. Conversely, if new cases consistently fall below median predictions, it would bolster hopes that a durable peak is imminent or has already been reached. Unfortunately, we are not observing such a turning point in global figures at present.
By Joseph Parnes
Summary via publisher (Wiley)
“Short Selling for the Long Term” delineates the strategies employed by Joseph Parnes, President of Technomart, to achieve consistent returns in the stock market. While many investors struggle to exceed returns indicated by the Standard and Poor’s Stock Index, Parnes frequently succeeds through his investment philosophy. This book lays out his approach for stock evaluation, offering a clear methodology. When the methodology prompts a purchase recommendation on a stock, there is a considerable likelihood it will increase in value. Conversely, if the recommendation suggests shorting a stock, the text illustrates how its price is likely to decline.
In a previous post, I simulated S&P 500 drawdowns to gain insight into the potentialities of the ongoing market correction. This analysis will be enriched by visually contrasting the current peak-to-market decline with the ten most significant drawdowns observed since 1950.
Today’s US jobs report for March is anticipated to reveal the onset of an unprecedented decline: WSJ
Americans are being urged to wear masks to combat the spread of COVID-19: Reuters
Eurozone PMI survey results for March indicate the most significant GDP contraction on record: Markit
The Caixin China Composite Output Index records its second-lowest figure ever: Markit
The US jobless rate could be as high as 13%, marking the highest level since the Great Depression: NY Times
Jobless claims in the US continued their historic surge last week: CNBC
The anticipated risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) has dipped below 4% in response to market disruptions caused by the global spread of COVID-19. The index’s long-term annual return expectation over the “risk-free” rate has now fallen to 3.8% annualized, down from a previous estimate of 4.5% last month, and from 4.7% a year earlier: source.
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Testing for a potential COVID-19 vaccine is reportedly progressing on schedule, although it is still anticipated to take 12 to 18 months: CNBC
The government may revisit the 2017 tax overhaul as additional stimulus is considered: BBG
President Trump is optimistic about an impending Russia-Saudi oil deal that could benefit the struggling industry: Reuters
US and global factory output contracted in March: WSJ
US auto sales took a considerable hit in March as a consequence of COVID-19: CNN
There are expectations for another substantial update on US jobless claims today: CNBC
President Bolsonaro of Brazil remains defiant concerning the gravity of COVID-19: NY Times
Gun sales in the US surged in March as the virus spread: NY Times
The manufacturing slowdown continued globally in March: IHS Markit
US private employment fell in March, marking the first decline in nearly three years: ADP
In a rapidly changing landscape, various markets have faced intense scrutiny and volatility. This article provides a snapshot of recent developments across multiple sectors, including equity strategies, government economic responses, commodity recoveries, and forecasts regarding the ongoing pandemic. Each section presents critical insights into the current state of affairs, emphasizing the challenges and emerging trends.
As we navigate through these transformative times, it’s essential to stay informed about the shifting dynamics in the markets and globally. Understanding the interplay of various economic factors will empower investors and individuals alike to make more informed decisions as the situation continues to evolve.
