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The Capital Spectator: Investing, Asset Allocation, and Economic Insights

How to Make a Killing: Blood, Death and Dollars in American Medicine
Tom Mueller
Review via Kirkus Reviews
This disheartening examination reveals how the Hippocratic oath has been overshadowed by financial incentives, specifically within the kidney dialysis industry. Through interviews with numerous stakeholders in the “dialysis community,” journalist Tom Mueller—author of *Extra Virginity* and *Crisis of Conscience*—uncovers a healthcare sector that appears to prioritize profit over patient welfare. Most dialysis procedures occur in clinics where speedy patient turnover is paramount, often resulting in blood being withdrawn and reintroduced more quickly than is safe. This practice can inadvertently shorten patients’ lives by causing rapid fluid loss that triggers dangerous drops in blood pressure, potentially leading to serious health complications such as strokes and cardiac arrest. Complaints can often lead to denial of care, and alarmingly, many nephrologists seem unmotivated to advocate for their patients’ rights. One nephrologist shared a troubling account of a colleague who claimed to have “developed techniques for provoking undesirable patients into acting out, making it easier to remove them from his facility.”

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Investors can utilize three fundamental methods to evaluate an investment strategy. Each method comes with its own set of advantages and disadvantages, yet only one stands out as practical.

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* Global economic growth slowed in July, marking the weakest pace since January
* Saudi Arabia will extend oil production cuts through September
* ISM Services Index declined in July, indicating modest sector growth
* US jobless claims rose slightly but remain close to the lowest levels of 2023
* US factory orders increased in June, rising for the fourth consecutive month:

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Despite rising interest rates this year, bonds have staged a resurgence in 2023, at least in terms of total returns. The notable exception is long-dated US Treasuries. In general, various segments of the US fixed-income market have posted year-to-date gains through the market’s close on August 2, considering both price changes and distributions.

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* Will the downgrade of US debt change spending habits in Washington? Don’t bet on it
* Treasury Secretary Yellen described the US credit downgrade as “puzzling” and “unwarranted”
* China’s service sector activity has shown solid growth in July according to PMI data
* Eurozone economy contracted in July, reaching an 8-month low, as indicated by PMI data
* Foreign buyers reduced US home purchases to their lowest level in 14 years
* Hiring in the US private-sector slowed in July, yet levels remained strong according to ADP data:

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In July, the gap between the anticipated return for the Global Market Index (GMI) and its trailing 10-year performance narrowed. The latest long-run forecast for the GMI, a global, multi-asset class benchmark, has slightly increased to an annualized 6.5% from the previous month’s estimate, while its trailing 10-year return has edged down to 6.7%. This forecast is informed by the average predictions from three models (defined below).

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* US credit rating has been downgraded from AAA to AA+ by Fitch Ratings
* The global manufacturing slowdown intensified in July at a quicker rate
* A robust US economy suggests that stocks can continue to rise, as a strategist advises
* Job openings in the US fell to a two-year low in June
* US construction spending increased sharply in June
* The US ISM Manufacturing Index continues to signal recession in the sector:

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Many major asset classes experienced a rally in July, particularly commodities, according to a variety of ETFs. In contrast, US bonds have remained an outlier, registering losses for the third consecutive month.

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* The effectiveness of Bidenomics appears evident in the US economy, according to reports
* Could disappointing earnings forecasts threaten the ongoing stock market rally?
* America’s first new nuclear reactor in decades has begun operation
* China’s manufacturing sector contracted in July, impacting factories across Asia
* China’s recent metals export restrictions are expected to affect the global chip industry
* The prices for eurozone goods fell at the fastest rate since 2009
* Chicago PMI rose less than expected in July, continuing to signal a contraction
* Texas manufacturing activity remained in a contraction phase in July
* US banks are tightening lending standards in the latter half of 2023

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Commodities have joined the positive trend, following last week’s rally that boosted a wide range of commodities. As a result, all the major asset classes are now on track for gains this year, based on a collection of ETFs, closing on July 28.

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