Introduction: The expansive growth of online sports gambling has raised significant concerns about its social and economic ramifications, particularly following the success of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. As we delve into the statistics and trends surrounding betting in the US, it’s essential to grasp the implications of this phenomenon.
Note to readers: This subject has piqued my interest since the latter stages of the FIFA World Cup, primarily due to a compelling 30-minute YouTube video by the Spanish-language independent media outlet El Mercurio Ahora o Nunca. However, each time I attempted to write about it, more urgent topics emerged, such as the recent influx of “migrants” to Ceuta or the escalating internal disputes within FIFA, which continue to intensify…
The 2026 World Cup shattered records, emerging as the most lucrative sports event in history with approximately $15 billion in revenue. It also became the largest betting event globally, with over $50 billion (£37.4 billion) wagered, as reported by the BBC.
In the United States, the 2026 World Cup generated a 30% increase in the number of bets and a slight rise in total betting volume compared to the combined figures of the men’s and women’s NCAA basketball tournaments, according to Caesars Sportsbook’s insights shared with ESPN.
This year’s World Cup triggered an extraordinary surge in betting activity across the US. DraftKings noted a staggering 650% increase in wagers, while BetMGM reported a 211% rise compared to four years prior.
Much of this growth can be attributed to timing and accessibility, as highlighted by Inc.com:
Matt Bresler, co-founder and CEO of Odditt, emphasized that the previous World Cup was held when mobile betting in the US was available in only a few states and was still considered niche. “This was the first World Cup played in a market where legal mobile sports betting was accessible to a large portion of the population,” he noted. “Such a scenario has never existed before.”
Since the Supreme Court overturned the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act in 2018, which allowed states to legalize sports gambling, numerous states have jumped on board. Motivated by the allure of increased tax income, 30 states and Washington, DC, have adopted online and mobile sports betting regulations, while another nine states permit betting in physical venues like casinos and tribal sites.
The response from bettors has surpassed the expectations of gambling companies. In 2025, legal sportsbooks in the US saw $165 billion in wagers, with bettors losing an eye-watering $16 billion. As reported by Fortune, “gambling has solidified its status as America’s preferred pastime, surpassing spending on movies, arts, museums, and music combined.”
In 2025, Americans wagered approximately $166 billion on sporting events—exceeding the entire revenue generated by the US movie, music, publishing, and museum industries combined.*
The North American box office reported a total of $8.87 billion for 2025, which remains 22% lower than pre-pandemic figures. Recorded music revenue hit a recorded $11.5 billion. Live entertainment, including concerts and festivals generated an impressive $18.51 billion. Meanwhile, book publishing figures from the Association of American Publishers reported $14.6 billion in revenue for the year. The US museum sector generated around $16.4 billion. Put together, these figures total roughly $70 billion, which is less than half of what Americans spent on sports betting.
“It fills that void and will certainly overshadow other forms of entertainment and hospitality,” stated Martin “Marty” Conway, who teaches sports management at Georgetown University. With sports betting becoming increasingly commonplace, it is increasingly perceived as a legitimate form of entertainment. “They’ve transformed the basic question of who will win into an engaging experience that goes beyond traditional betting,” he remarked.
Research indicates that this influx of funds often detracts from more productive investments. A study by Baker and colleagues, which analyzed consumer transactions from about 230,000 Americans between 2018 and 2023, found that betting behaviors often “crowd out” investments typically used for long-term savings.
The staggering amount being spent on sports gambling in the US raises alarms, particularly given the sharp growth in recent years. As depicted in the graphic below, legal sports betting expenditure was merely $6.6 billion just eight years ago (the extent of illegal gambling prior to 2018 remains unquantifiable). This figure has surged more than twentyfold since then. Although the rate of growth has tempered somewhat, it continues at a rate exceeding 10% annually.
This increase is compounded by a rising influx of funds into prediction markets, where sports-related bets are also popular, particularly in states where online gambling remains prohibited. This trend is further exacerbated by the money lost during recent cryptocurrency ventures.
A Pew Research Center analysis reveals that global monthly trading volumes on prediction market platforms have surged from below $5 billion in September 2025 to approximately $24 billion by April 2026.
It’s estimated that with current growth trajectories, US-based activity on offshore prediction markets could reach $133 billion annually by 2030, assuming a stable market share between regulated and offshore entities, according to a recent report by Crane Zeng, a consulting firm specializing in analytics and political strategy.
Companies like Polymarket and Kalshi argue they are not gambling operators but providers of “event derivatives,” which are overseen federally by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This categorization allows prediction markets to operate in most states, including Utah and Hawaii, where traditional gambling has long been prohibited, although this interpretation has led to numerous legal challenges.
The prediction market sector enjoys explicit backing from the Trump administration. President Trump, whose son, Donald Trump Jr., is closely linked with the top two prediction market firms, has underscored the importance of ensuring the CFTC maintains exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets rather than allowing state oversight. “It is a major industry, and we must protect it,” he emphasized.
Collateral Damage
Amid the rapid expansion of online sports gambling, the social and economic repercussions are growing overwhelmingly alarming, paralleling the soaring revenues and profits of involved companies. This occurs as the US grapples with an escalating cost-of-living crisis, where over 70% of middle-income Americans report their earnings are inadequate to meet inflationary pressures according to a recent poll.
As economic conditions worsen for many, an increasing number of individuals are resorting to sports betting as a potential escape. Meanwhile, sportsbooks are complicating winning odds, making parlays—the practice of linking multiple bets— the standard product offered to customers. Aakash Gupta noted that while the betting products have become less favorable for customers, wager amounts continue to rise.
An article in the Financial Times titled “The cost of America’s sports betting habit” reveals that the varying pace of legalization across states has created a natural experiment to assess the economic consequences of this trend, with states that have not legalized betting serving as control groups:
One clear consequence has been the swift adoption of sports betting among residents in states where it has been legalized, according to a preliminary study. “People’s betting activity quadruples after legalization in these states,” stated Wayne Taylor, a marketing professor at Southern Methodist University in Dallas, Texas.
Taylor and his research team examined credit and debit card transactions from 1.2 million Americans from 2019 to 2023. They discovered that spending increased from under $1 to nearly $5 per person monthly in states that implemented online sports betting. Along with this, there was a noteworthy fourfold increase in “irresponsible gambling,” defined by expenditures equating to 1% or more of personal income.
These shifts were rapid and lasting. “That’s the most notable change from six years ago,” Taylor remarked. “Gambling has seamlessly integrated into the American lifestyle.”
A second study highlighted by the FT established a correlation between each dollar deposited into online sports betting and a reduction in savings or investments, with greater evidence of increasing credit card debt and account overdraft occurrences. Credit scores have similarly suffered:
A third study conducted by Hollenbeck from UCLA alongside co-authors utilized a proprietary consumer credit database featuring over 4 million Americans from 2016 to 2023, revealing concerning financial trends post-legalization.
The average credit score plummeted nearly 1%, the likelihood of bankruptcy increased by 25% to 30%, and the figure for debt in collections rose by 8%.
“While these effects may be minor, they are widespread, indicating that the financial burden is likely significant for those heavily involved in gambling,” Hollenbeck remarked.
According to a recent study by NPR and the New York Fed, sports betting is associated with declining credit scores in over 30 states where the practice is legal, as well as in bordering regions where it hasn’t been legalized:
Credit delinquency rates—mainly resulting from missed credit card and auto loan payments—rose by about 0.3% overall in states with legal sports betting, even though these bettors comprise only 3% of the population. However, in the 3% of individuals who began gambling after their states legalized it, credit delinquencies surged by more than 10% among gamblers.
Not everyone engaged in online gambling faces severe losses. Many gamblers maintain healthy betting habits. So, one might wonder why we wouldn’t allow what seems to be harmless fun for the majority, risking its underground resurgence?
The answer lies in the ease of access and ubiquity of online betting platforms. Never before has it been so effortless to gamble on sporting events, thanks to our smartphones, which have turned into 24/7 virtual casinos ready to accept bets at any moment, including on credit—until banks eventually intervene.
Recent research indicates that more than 25% of American adults have accounts with online betting services like DraftKings or FanDuel. Of these, around 11% are classified as problem gamblers, with a troubling correlation to lower-income households, based on an analysis of financial transactions from 184,000 households.
Paradoxically, it is these financially vulnerable households that are effectively subsidizing state budgets through taxes on gambling revenues. Warren Buffett encapsulated this dilemma during his first televised interview post-Berkshire Hathaway role, calling legalized online gambling an indirect tax break for the wealthy:
Warren Buffett, in his first post-CEO interview, offered a poignant critique of legalized gambling as a regressive tax policy benefitting the wealthy. The numbers indeed confirm his assessment.
In 2025, Americans wagered $165 billion at legal sportsbooks… pic.twitter.com/edLe9hAO2Z
— Aakash Gupta (@aakashgupta) April 26, 2026
Buffett’s notable line:
“Wealthy individuals benefit from this system because they are distanced from the financial pain that a dollar represents for others. Governments raising funds from those less affluent indirectly eases the financial burden on the wealthy. I dislike systems that exploit the vulnerable… It isn’t the role of government to take advantage of its citizens.”
This pattern of systemic exploitation has persisted for decades in the US. The 2008-09 financial crisis recovery, from which Buffett reaped considerable rewards, exemplifies this harsh reality. Similarly, the direct connections of the Trump family to the ascent of prediction markets are no surprise, given their history of exploiting their own supporters via various ventures.
As Yves has consistently noted, the decline of the US parallels certain aspects of Russia’s post-Soviet collapse, with signs of profound internal disintegration becoming increasingly evident. As this trend continues, we can expect further appropriation by the elite, reminiscent of Russia’s tumultuous past.
Several readers of the FT have similarly observed this increasingly problematic trend, as one commentator noted:
The convergence of legalized gambling, prediction markets, relaxed societal norms, lack of law enforcement, and the thriving economy for adult entertainment all suggest a deliberate strategy aimed at dissipating the remnants of the American system.
Beyond the financial implications, the emotional toll of gambling addiction cannot be overlooked. Many experience profound distress, including depression, shame, chronic stress for family members, and breakdowns in relationships. It also bears one of the highest suicide rates of any addiction.
It’s essential to recognize that the US is not isolated in grappling with an escalating online gambling crisis. A recent op-ed in The New York Times highlighted that “sports betting and prediction markets are now unavoidably entrenched in the global landscape”:
The prevalence of gambling in sports has escalated to the extent that a recent analysis by the Washington Post found that an average of one gambling-related reference, promotion, or advertisement appeared every four minutes during 50 hours of televised sports content, spanning professional and college matches.
In my home country of the UK, where sports betting has been legal for decades, approximately 1.4 million individuals—or about 3% of the population—struggle with gambling addiction, according to the Gambling Commission’s 2025 survey. This issue is predicted to worsen in the coming years. A comprehensive UK study found that nearly one-third of adolescents aged 12-15 in Bradford have engaged in gambling at least once.
In Brazil, following the legalization of online gambling, $68 billion was wagered through the country’s payment system, Pix, last year. This figure excludes credit card transactions and bets placed on unregulated sites. Patricia Marins estimates that the true expenditure on online gambling might approach $100 billion, despite the lack of full regulation until 2024:
[T]here is no need to deduct the winnings, since the prize money often cycles back into the market. We are essentially discussing a “drug” heavily marketed throughout Brazil.
President Lula of Brazil is now attempting to counterbalance some of this damage by signing a decree aimed at freezing assets of companies operating illegal gambling platforms. He has also mentioned imposing a national ban on all online gambling sites.
“If it were up to me, we would shut them down,” Lula stated in an interview with ICL Noticias. “I am genuinely concerned about the indebtedness faced by the Brazilian populace. If these platforms are harmful, why don’t we put an end to them? We are treating this matter seriously.”
However, reversing these trends may prove challenging as gambling companies and prediction markets amass ever-growing wealth and influence. In the US, they have already escalated their lobbying efforts at both state and national levels. Simultaneously, states are becoming increasingly reliant on the tax revenues derived from sports betting.
Jason Kotter from the Marriott School of Business at Brigham Young University, a co-author of one US study examining online gambling, aptly summarized the situation:
“In retrospect, we might look back and wonder how we naively opened the floodgates.”
* As noted by NC reader John Wight in the comments, the $166 billion wagered on sports doesn’t accurately reflect the reality since much of that was redistributed to other players winning bets. Making a comparison between the overall spending on various cultural activities and the $16 billion net losses from sports betting might provide a clearer picture; however, this does not encompass losses from prediction markets.
