September Used Vehicle Market Overview
In September, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index fell to 205.9, marking a 0.6% decrease from the previous year and a 1.1% decline from August, adjusting for vehicle mix, mileage, and seasonality. Non-adjusted wholesale prices also dropped, declining 1.2% year-over-year and 1.3% month-over-month.
Adjusted Year-End Forecasts
Cox Automotive revised its year-end forecast for the index, now expecting a modest growth of 0.2% year-over-year for 2026, compared to an earlier projection of 2%. Chief economist Jeremy Robb highlighted that September saw steeper depreciation than usual for this season.
Factors Affecting Vehicle Values
- Fuel Costs and Interest Rates: After a strong appreciation period in early 2026, third-quarter values weakened due to rising fuel prices and interest rates.
- Inventory Trends: Diesel-powered vehicles made up over 3% of wholesale inventory, with supply days increasing by 27% year-over-year due to high diesel prices.
- Demand Shifts: Large pickups and SUVs faced declining values, while older, economical vehicles proved to be more resilient against depreciation.
Electric Vehicle (EV) Market Performance
In contrast to traditional vehicles, the Manheim EV Index rose 4.3% year-over-year and 0.6% from August. Wholesale EV sales surged by 22% from the second quarter and 45% from the previous year, representing a record 4.9% of transactions.
Future Market Expectations
- Off-Lease Supply: EVs are anticipated to represent about 16% of off-lease supply in the second half of 2026, increasing potentially to 19% by mid-2027. The overall off-lease vehicle supply is recovering, with monthly volumes projected to rise from 190,000 to 220,000 units.
- Wholesale Volume Growth: Cox Automotive predicts a 3% growth in wholesale volume for 2027 due to increased off-lease supply.
Updated Used-Vehicle Sales Forecast
Cox Automotive slightly increased its total used-vehicle sales forecast for 2026 to 38.5 million units. Retail sales are expected to reach 20.5 million units, with certified pre-owned sales at 2.6 million units.
Overall, fluctuations in wholesale prices reflect ongoing pressures from external factors, including rising interest rates and fuel costs, while the recovering fleet demand and aging vehicle population may offer some market support.
For further analysis, refer to the Q3 2026 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Report.
