Categories Finance

Iran War Update and Links – 10/3/2026

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Dear Valued Readers,

In Nat’s recent post on the Iran War, numerous commenters shared their thoughts, with some expressing concerns about a perceived decline in comment quality.

During this fundraising period, I delegated comment moderation to Nat with the intention of dedicating more time to personally thank our generous donors. Unfortunately, unforeseen complications with my health insurer, Cigna, have consumed much of my time and energy. Additionally, we are currently falling short of the pace needed to meet our ambitious 2027 goals. If you have not yet had the chance to contribute, please visit the Tip Jar and give generously!

Comment Quality Concerns

Reader Expat2Uruguay noted a decline in the quality of comments, feeling that they have become less informative. Indeed, our discussions may not match the insightful level we achieved earlier in the Iran conflict. This shift is likely fueled by fatigue surrounding the ongoing war, coupled with some commenters stepping back due to personal commitments, such as travel. Notably, we seem to have lost engagement from contributor Raspberry Jam; her email is now inactive.

Covering the Iran War has grown increasingly challenging, particularly as US propaganda has escalated, and reliable information from the Iranian side has diminished. Furthermore, Trump’s influence on the paper oil markets has misled prominent energy analysts, with their frustration skewing their commentary. His ongoing gaslighting and aggressive stance have created a situation reminiscent of a Groundhog Day loop, effectively overshadowing critical analysis.

Compounding the issue, many commentators who lean towards pro-Iran positions—often grounded in anti-genocide, anti-imperialism, or anti-Trump sentiments—have expressed confusion over some of Iran’s puzzling responses, such as their restraint in attacking US naval vessels. This frustration has led to attempts to force-fit evidence to align with existing beliefs or, worse, resort to ad hominem attacks against dissenting sources. Regarding oil transit, Trita Parsi’s conversation with Mario Nawfal touched on this subject. Parsi, who has established connections on the Iranian side, noted that more oil is being allowed to pass. However, discrepancies arise as the US often inflates numbers based on peak days while downplaying lower volumes on others, an operation that comes at significant costs to the US and can’t be sustained indefinitely.

Logistics Over Narratives in Warfare

It’s important to remember that wars are won not by narratives but by logistics, armament, discipline, and geographical advantages—traits that Iran possesses that make it tough to conquer. Yet, narratives can prolong the engagement of a losing side, increasing the costs for both them and their adversaries.

Recent evidence suggests that the depletion of US resources may be worsening, despite optimistic claims from the Administration. Brandon Weichert’s discussion with Karen Kwiatkowski and others indicated that the deployment of another aircraft carrier and additional ground forces may simply be a routine rotation rather than a reinforcement. Furthermore, Trump has not acted on his threats to destroy tankers one-for-one.

From an energy perspective, Iran’s measured approach may result from significant shifts in other energy sectors. For instance, Putin has announced a halt to diesel exports until sanctions are lifted, while China has ceased its energy exports—as its refiners remain the last significant global spare capacity. US refiners are entering scheduled maintenance periods, indicating a decline in output, barring unforeseen events such as hurricanes. The US pressure on the EU to use its diesel reserves resembles a temporary fix rather than a long-term solution.

Looking Beyond Iran

Some readers argue we should focus more on financial matters than the Iran situation. However, we are not witnessing a pre-crisis environment similar to the anxiety surrounding subprime mortgages, nor does the current scenario resemble the crises in Cyprus or Greece, where valuable insights could be gleaned from negotiation dynamics and regulatory matters. Presently, activity is concentrated in private debt, and even journalists who have been active in this area report minimal progress. Notably, it took Ed Zitron considerable time to draw conclusions about the economic factors shaping major AI players.

Reader Expat2Uruguay pointed out that an article discussing de-dollarization received little engagement, leading to questions about the audience’s willingness to absorb insights that challenge emotionally appealing narratives. When I previously offered an unpopular opinion during the Greek bailout crisis—asserting that the Greeks would not prevail—I encountered considerable pushback. The current silence suggests that our audience has limited interest in analysis, especially regarding finance topics or other viewpoints that conflict with entrenched but erroneous beliefs.

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In Summary

As the fundraising week continues, we appreciate the discussions that emerge around pressing global issues, despite the challenges faced. This dialogue is essential as we navigate an ever-complex landscape in both financial and geopolitical arenas. Thank you for your ongoing support and engagement.


Antidote

And a bonus:

A second bonus:

For more insights, check out yesterday’s links and Antidote du Jour here.

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