Summary of September 2026 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast
Key Insights:
- Sales Pace: September’s new-vehicle sales are expected to end near 16.3 million, slightly down from 16.6 million last year and 16.8 million in August.
- Q3 Trends: Q3 sales volume projected at 4.12 million, a decline from Q2 and last year; however, the full-year forecast has been raised to 16.1 million, indicating strong demand despite challenges.
- Market Dynamics: Asian brands are gaining market share, while the Detroit 3 are expected to record their lowest share ever at just over 36%.
Sales Volume Comparisons:
- September sales volume is anticipated to increase by 6.5% year-over-year but decrease by 2.7% from August. Key factors include seasonal selling days and the timing of Labor Day.
Analyst Comment:
Charlie Chesbrough, a senior economist at Cox Automotive, noted continued strength in sales driven by robust fleet demand and affluent buyers, even amidst high inflation and low consumer confidence.
Detailed Sales Forecast for September 2026
| Segment | Sept-26 | Sept-25 | Aug-26 | YOY% | MOM% | Market Share Sept-26 | Market Share Aug-26 | MOM Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compact SUV/Crossover | 230,000 | 233,351 | 234,842 | -1.4% | -2.1% | 17.0% | 16.9% | 0.1% |
| Full-Size Pickup Truck | 190,000 | 177,007 | 197,226 | 7.3% | -3.7% | 14.1% | 14.2% | -0.1% |
| Grand Total | 1,350,000 | 1,268,094 | 1,387,221 | 6.5% | -2.7% |
Q3 2026 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast per OEM
| OEM | Q3 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2025 | QOQ% | YOY% | YTD 2026 | YTD 2025 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM | 671,706 | 711,175 | 708,360 | -5.5% | -5.2% | 2,007,180 | 2,140,876 | -6.2% |
| Toyota | 642,707 | 673,971 | 629,135 | -4.6% | 2.2% | 1,886,096 | 1,865,872 | 1.1% |
| Ford | 504,172 | 545,978 | 542,983 | -7.7% | -7.1% | 1,505,134 | 1,650,623 | -8.8% |
Full-Year 2026 Sales Forecast:
- Full-year new-vehicle sales forecast increased to 16.1 million from 15.8 million.
- Retail sales expected at 13.1 million units, fleet at 3 million units.
Summary
Despite economic challenges, the auto market shows resilience with strong demand and shifting market shares, particularly toward Asian brands. The outlook for the remainder of the year remains cautiously optimistic with anticipated growth in both retail and fleet sales.
