Trump’s Desperation Grows as Bessent Moves to Block Iran Airline Flights Before UN Visits; Updates on Strait of Hormuz Fuel Transits

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[This update on the Iran conflict commenced before completion as frequently occurs. Please revisit or refresh this page at 8:00 AM EDT for the final version. Further update: we finished by 7:00 AM!]

<p>Questions lingered about whether Trump or Mohammed bin Salman would extricate themselves from the mess they created by instigating disastrous and costly conflicts. Trump has just made a significant misstep.</p>

<p>While we'll eventually discuss the conflict, notable calm persists on the battlefield, likely due to Trump’s imminent summit with President Xi on Thursday, as indicated by <a href="https://www.presstv.co.uk" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Press TV</a>:</p>

<p><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" src="https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot-2026-09-22-at-3.19.52 PM.png" alt="" width="600" height="434" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-316772"  /></p>

<p>Similarly, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Al Jazeera</a> emphasizes messaging taking precedence over military operations:</p>

<p><img decoding="async" src="https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Screenshot-2026-09-22-at-4.56.05 PM.png" alt="" width="450" height="175" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-316773"/></p>

<p>Though Trump has made notable missteps, the Iran war trap remains intact. His exclusion of CNN, Politico, and MS Now from the press pool sparked a unified protest from the remaining outlets, which opted to forsake coverage of the White House. This is a more severe blow to Trump’s ego than it may initially appear; he frequently relies on press interactions for opportunities to project dominance during casual chats with political and business figures. </p>

<p>However, the latest footage provides a stark contrast:</p>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
    <p lang="en" dir="ltr">Talk about backfire.</p>
    <p>Here’s Trump‘s event right now at the White House. Newsmax is covering it, but they can’t hear what he’s saying because the entire press pool boycotted him for banning CNN, Politico, and MS Now.</p>
    <p>Trump is silenced by the very people he tried to silence.…</p>
    <p>— Brian Krassenstein (@krassenstein) <a href="https://x.com/krassenstein/status/2102098487068242103?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">September 21, 2026</a></p>
</blockquote>

<p>Trump has now deprived himself of a vital channel for connecting with Americans leading up to the midterm elections, likely to the relief of many Republicans.</p>

<p>As for the summit with Xi, it’s improbable that Xi would tolerate an unscripted conversation in a casual setting. Trump likely had planned some formal proceedings at the White House, which Xi’s team would be keenly aware of. Will this lead Trump to reconsider his stance? If not, it could imply that he expects to maintain his grip on the narrative amidst brewing tensions. Here's a recent example:</p>

<p>It’s worth noting that the very courts Trump often criticizes may provide a reprieve for him. The networks he barred are pursuing legal action against the White House, claiming First Amendment violations. This appears to be a straightforward case, and Trump has already voiced grievances regarding the assigned judge. Given Trump's nature, a retreat prior to the Xi meeting seems unlikely; he seems to believe that such a move would undermine his image.</p>

<p><iframe src="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/117310724294153031/embed" class="truthsocial-embed" style="max-width: 100%; border: 0" width="600" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></p>

<p>Even prior to his recent miscalculation, Trump displayed a pattern of indecisiveness regarding a potential military strike — indicative of someone trapped. His inability to appear out of control is apparent. Recent reports reveal Trump’s erratic decision-making concerning military involvement, marked by an extraordinary speed of reversal that could incite whiplash. According to the <a href="https://archive.li/vmQRz#selection-8139.0-8139.66" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">New York Times</a>:</p>

<blockquote>
    <p>For two weeks, the question of whether to yield to pleas from Saudi Arabia to order military action against Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen has plagued President Trump…</p>
    <p>Trump had oscillated between agreeing to Saudi requests and rejecting them until Thursday, when Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman urged him to intervene.</p>
    <p>Though Trump had met with advisers just a day earlier expressing opposition to strikes, after speaking with the crown prince, he instructed the Pentagon to prepare for potential airstrikes. However, by midday Sunday, Trump seemed to have reversed course again, stating there would be no U.S. airstrikes against the Houthis for the time being.</p>
    <p>Despite the president's pivot, many of his advisors harbored skepticism about engaging in military actions, particularly given the ongoing challenges the U.S. military faces due to the situation in Iran.</p>
    <p>Trump's decision to retrench or delay came as preparations for potential strikes were already underway, illustrating the convoluted situation in which he finds himself: on one hand, he acknowledges that the Houthis have not targeted U.S. interests directly, while on the other, their continued aggression towards Saudi Arabia poses a dilemma.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>Moreover, it appears that part of the equation involves Trump's belief that MBS has hindered U.S. operations by restricting the use of Saudi airspace for military escorts.</p>

<p>Ultimately, even when considering Trump's erratic mindset, this situation becomes increasingly complex. His pattern of reactions indicates a desperation to maintain control over the narrative. Various commentators have pointed out that inconsistent military decisions can hinder readiness.</p>

<p>Press TV has not acknowledged the recent U.S. measures against Iran, aimed at using sanctions to curb the operations of Iranian air carriers. Notably, this move won't prevent non-Iranian airlines from flying to Iran. The sanctions will enact on Wednesday, thus their impact will be revealed shortly.</p>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
    <p lang="en" dir="ltr">Bessent on Iran:</p>
    <p>On September 23, all Iranian airlines will be grounded worldwide.</p>
    <p>How do we do that? If they land, you cannot provide them fuel, landing services, or tickets, or you will be excluded from the dollar… <a href="https://t.co/pX5wfEobV3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">pic.twitter.com/pX5wfEobV3</a></p>
    <p>— Clash Report (@clashreport) <a href="https://x.com/clashreport/status/2102026164990611686?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">September 21, 2026</a></p>
</blockquote>

<p>Several countries have stated their intent to comply:</p>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
    <p lang="en" dir="ltr">⚡️BREAKING: Scott Bessent says he will shut down all Iranian airlines globally starting September 23</p>
    <p>“Airports that provide services to Iranian airlines will be cut off from the dollar system”</p>
    <p>Turkey has announced it won’t accept Iranian airlines anymore <a href="https://t.co/y6c9HJHb97" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">pic.twitter.com/y6c9HJHb97</a></p>
    <p>— Iran Observer (@IranObserver0) <a href="https://x.com/IranObserver0/status/2102043777175044352?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">September 21, 2026</a></p>
</blockquote>

<p>Conversely, Iran asserts that flights will maintain their regular schedules. According to <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/9/22/iran-war-live-irgc-says-us-israel-must-accept-withdrawal-from-region" target="_blank">Al Jazeera’s coverage</a>:</p>

<blockquote>
    <p><strong>Iran's Civil Aviation Organization vows that international flights operated by Iranian carriers will proceed as normal from October, despite U.S. threats.</strong></p>
    <p>A representative stated that no flights have been canceled and all operations continue as scheduled. They reassured passengers regarding timely updates on any potential changes.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>However, Bessent’s action, coinciding with President Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Araghchi’s UN visit, complicates matters, especially since the officials will need U.S. assistance for fuel at some stage. Yet, Iranian officials are reportedly departing from Qatar, suggesting that disruption may only occur during the last leg from Qatar back to Iran.</p>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
    <p lang="en" dir="ltr">This is HILARIOUS</p>
    <p>Trump is mandated by the UN to allow Iran to address the UN General Assembly.</p>
    <p>We’ve issued visas for the Iranian President to speak, only to undermine their flight to New York. </p>
    <p>— Matt Tardio (@angertab) <a href="https://x.com/angertab/status/2102046195128365402?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">September 21, 2026</a></p>
</blockquote>

<p>Further insights from former JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre can be found in a discussion with Brandon Weichert:</p>

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/AHpIvr1SOss?si=GVvPtceSOFpnsivj" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>

<p>Referring back to the headline, resilc comments: “Trump will ground every airline everywhere due to a lack of jet fuel.”</p>

<p>It’s essential to remember Eyre’s critical view of Iran as authoritarian and indifferent to public welfare, contrasting with perceptions from former ambassador Chas Freeman, who suggests Iran operates as a directed democracy like the U.S., whereby certain topics remain politically sensitive. From a refined <a href="https://youtubetotranscript.com/transcript?v=AHpIvr1SOss" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">transcript</a>:</p>

<blockquote>
    <p>Weichert: Scott Bessant aims to dismantle Iran's air industry. What consequences will that bring?</p>
    <p>Eyre: Certainly detrimental. Although it can induce pain, it’s vital to recognize the international laws prohibiting collective punishment, which might not be taken seriously but have tangible implications. For example, shortages in medication could become catastrophic.</p>
    <p>Nevertheless, this action will likely not prompt the ruling Iranian elite to capitulate to U.S. demands; in fact, it may escalate the situation further.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>It’s important to note that Iran is already grappling with medication shortages, despite domestic production exceeding 90%. The remaining percentage, both finished drugs and raw materials, are obtained from abroad. Sanctions significantly hinder the payment processes. As covered by CNN recently, Iran continues facing dire circumstances:</p>

<blockquote>
    <p>When 35-year-old Sima walked into a pharmacy in Tehran, she desperately sought medication crucial for her kidney health. After multiple pharmacies, she finally found it, but the cost had once again risen, forcing her to consider underdosing.</p>
    <p>As sanctions compress the economy, individuals with chronic conditions are finding it increasingly challenging to maintain access to life-saving medications. Reports indicate a crisis, with nearly 800 medications, including essentials like antidepressants and insulin, facing shortages or unaffordable prices.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>In terms of energy discussions, contradictions arise regarding claims of oil and LPG transits in Oman not aligning with Iran's assertion of control over the Strait of Hormuz. While various commentators contend the U.S. figures may be exaggerated, some credible sources indicate increased activity resembling pre-sanction norms. Nevertheless, such levels remain unsustainable long-term.</p>

<p>Moreover, some military analysts have suggested there could be a far-reaching implication of allowed oil transits, potentially involving Iran’s strategic decisions designed to avert an economic crisis in the Gulf. Reports suggest increased exports from Dubai and Saudi Arabia, highlighting a nuanced state of affairs.</p>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
    <p lang="en" dir="ltr">As it appears, Iran might be accepting compensation from Arab nations to facilitate transit. For instance, Emirati oil exports have risen significantly over the month.</p>
    <p>— Policy Tensor (@policytensor) <a href="https://x.com/policytensor/status/2102217402633039996?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">September 22, 2026</a></p>
</blockquote>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
    <p lang="en" dir="ltr">On top of the 7 VLCC that Saudi Arabia was loading on Sunday inside the Persian Gulf, the kingdom was also loading 1 VLCC at Yanbu in the Red Sea. <a href="https://t.co/EZ8UGpgxap" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://t.co/EZ8UGpgxap</a></p>
    <p>— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) <a href="https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2102093633096667443?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">September 21, 2026</a></p>
</blockquote>

<p>Notably, predictions indicate that Saudi Arabia’s export positions might be more stable than previously assumed.</p>

<p>Bloomberg also reported that Saudi Aramco is approaching several Asian refiners, encouraging them to prepare for oil shipments from the Red Sea port of Yanbu:</p>

<blockquote>
    <p>Traders have been informed informally about impending loadings from executives at the state-run company, suggesting a revival in export activity.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>Despite this, there seems to be no immediate shift in MBS’s approach, maintaining the pressure on Ansar Allah, as evidenced by ongoing Saudi military strikes:</p>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
    <p lang="en" dir="ltr">⭕️ Yemen's Ansar Allah: "In a major escalation, the criminal Saudi enemy targeted the provinces of Al-Jawf, Taiz, Saada, and Marib with 157 airstrikes, carried out by its F-15 and Typhoon Fighter Jets…" <a href="https://t.co/XMbzFqzKXt" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://t.co/XMbzFqzKXt</a> <a href="https://t.co/oU8h1gZJ7A" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">pic.twitter.com/oU8h1gZJ7A</a></p>
    <p>— MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) <a href="https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/2102076767741608260?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">September 21, 2026</a></p>
</blockquote>

<p>Conveying their stance on Saudi Arabia, Ansar Allah has asserted its commitment to the preservation of Islamic sites, taking a critical view of the Saudi administration:</p>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
    <p lang="en" dir="ltr">HOUTHI LEADER: “MECCA AND THE KAABA ARE UNDER SAUDI OCCUPATION”</p>
    <p>Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi described these sites as belonging to all Muslims, insisting the Houthis uphold greater loyalty to the holy sites than the current Saudi regime.</p>
    <p>— Subodh Kumar (@kumarsubodh_) <a href="https://x.com/kumarsubodh_/status/2102322723636793666?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">September 22, 2026</a></p>
</blockquote>

<p>And some final notes:</p>

<p>Expect further developments if Tyson’s analysis proves correct:</p>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
    <p lang="en" dir="ltr">The missile used by the IRGC ‘over’ the USN carrier was likely an Electro Magnetic Pulse designed to disable radars and sophisticated electronics without damaging the ship physically. Iranians have led EMP research since the 1960s. <a href="https://t.co/SIQhkGlOhE" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">https://t.co/SIQhkGlOhE</a></p>
    <p>— Kathleen Tyson (@Kathleen_Tyson_) <a href="https://x.com/Kathleen_Tyson_/status/2102296583853547788?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">September 22, 2026</a></p>
</blockquote>

<p>From <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/9/22/iran-war-live-irgc-says-us-israel-must-accept-withdrawal-from-region" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Al Jazeera’s live feed</a>, the latest updates indicate:</p>

<blockquote>
    <p><strong>IRGC announces plans to reverse-engineer recently captured U.S. underwater drones.</strong></p>
    <p>Statements from the IRGC emphasize that the naval capture demonstrates Iran's control over advanced technologies previously dominated by the U.S.</p>
</blockquote>

<p>That wraps up today’s update. Nat will take over coverage on Iran tomorrow if any significant news arises.</p>

<p>___</p>

<p><sup>1</sup> One of many tweets echoing similar concerns:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
    <p lang="en" dir="ltr">NEW | There are multiple indications that fighting between the U.S. and Iran & its partners may expand imminently.</p>
    <p>A CNN analyst reported Trump deliberated and reviewed strike options against the Houthis in a meeting at Camp David yesterday. Trump notably returned to…” <a href="https://t.co/iZV2K2BsoZ" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">pic.twitter.com/iZV2K2BsoZ</a></p>
    <p>— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) <a href="https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2101721490429202745?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">September 20, 2026</a></p>
</blockquote>