As we approach the end of 2016, it’s that time of year again for reflections and forecasts. This annual ritual, though often laden with skepticism, sparks intrigue as we speculate about the possibilities that 2017 may hold. Everyone seems to have their own predictions about the upcoming year. While some of these forecasts may turn out to be accurate, historical trends indicate that most might miss the mark. The challenge lies in identifying which forecasts are likely to be correct and which are not. With this context, let’s add another layer to our analysis by examining Mr. Market’s implied estimates for short-term price movements through the lens of momentum.
Continue reading
In the week leading up to the Christmas holiday, global markets saw notable gains, with emerging-market bonds leading the way among the major asset classes, as indicated by several proxy ETFs. The generally positive performance through December 23 helped to recover some of the losses incurred during the December 12-16 downturn that affected nearly all sectors.
Continue reading
Wishing everyone joy, hope, and a Merry Christmas!
This year has seen an exceptional array of new releases in finance and economics. Before 2016 concludes, let’s take a moment to revisit some notable titles featured in The Capital Spectator’s weekly Book Bits column over the past year. Below are five selections from our archives that deserve another look. Stay tuned for another five titles in Part II next week.
Continue reading
It seemed like a certainty—an unshakeable prediction that the UK would plunge into recession following the June vote to leave the European Union. Yet, this forecast has proven to be another misguided prediction. However, this miscalculation offers valuable insights for reassessing best practices in business cycle analysis.
Continue reading
The often criticized practice of forecasting has its fair share of skepticism, and rightfully so. While caution is advisable when engaging in predictions, some form of forecasting remains essential. Among the various methods, combination forecasting stands out as particularly effective, supported by decades of research. Let’s test this methodology to see if it delivers consistent results.
Continue reading
Current projections for US growth in the fourth quarter remain subdued compared to the robust pace of Q3. Following a strong 3.2% increase in Q3, expectations indicate a slowdown to approximately 2%, with a slight improvement anticipated as we move into the new year.
Continue reading
A slight upward economic trend has kept the risk of a US recession low through November. While the latest updates do reveal some unexpected setbacks in areas such as retail sales and industrial production, the overall macroeconomic profile still indicates a growth-oriented momentum that is likely to persist for the near future.
Continue reading
Last week’s trading session was unforgiving, resulting in declines across all major asset classes after five consecutive days through December 16, according to various proxy ETFs. This widespread decline marks the first instance since March where no sector went unscathed in the weekly evaluation.
Continue reading
● The Activist Director: Lessons from the Boardroom and the Future of the Corporation
By Ira M. Millstein
Summary via publisher (Columbia University Press)
The corporate disasters of the last sixty years can often be traced back to passive directors who opted for operational shortcuts rather than sustainable growth strategies. Targeting short-term stock price increases to satisfy institutional and selective investors, these inattentive board members may risk the long-term prosperity of their companies. Such decisions, driven by a desire for immediate gains rather than future stability, can jeopardize any organization.
Continue reading
