At the dawn of the new millennium, the financial industry witnessed the emergence of mutual funds designed to mimic hedge fund strategies. With over a decade of performance data available, we can now evaluate the success of these publicly traded funds. The outcomes are varied, which is not surprising, considering the mixed results often associated with active management. Let’s explore the categories of alternative investments in mutual funds as classified by Morningstar, beginning with long-short equity strategies. Future articles will delve into other alternative categories.
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The economic landscape is always shrouded in uncertainty, yet one constant remains: the relentless forecasts for impending recessions. Speculating about an upcoming downturn has become a common practice since the last recession concluded. Surprisingly, the history of being consistently wrong over the past seven years hasn’t quelled this tendency. The anticipation of a recession looming around the corner for 2017 is intensifying.
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Recent data indicates a rise in inflation expectations, suggesting that the headline year-over-year price indexes may finally meet the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target in 2017 for the first time in several years.
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The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) remained stable in December, maintaining the highest level seen in over two years. Currently, GMI, an unmanaged market-value weighted amalgamation of major asset classes, is projected to yield an annualized 4.3% return over the long term, unchanged from last month’s estimates.
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Global markets concluded 2016 on a largely optimistic note. With the exception of inflation-indexed Treasuries and foreign developed-market government bonds, all major asset classes recorded gains in December. Overall, every category experienced growth for the year, apart from cash (3-month T-bills). The positive trend in 2016 is a welcome contrast to the year-end results of 2015, where most markets showed losses.
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Thank you for your support over the past year. Wishing you all the best for a successful 2017! Cheers!
In our last installment, we highlighted a curated selection of notable titles featured in The Capital Spectator’s Book Bits column throughout the year. Here is the second part of the 2016 year-end recap of books worthy of another look.
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This week’s year-end analysis of the momentum profile for the major asset classes concludes with a review of REITs/real estate, following evaluations of stocks, bonds, and commodities. This analysis focuses on 50- and 200-day moving averages, along with trailing one-year returns (252 trading days), aiming to enhance our understanding of the near-term outlook across various segments of the global market using proxy ETFs. We focus on price-only data by excluding distributions, utilizing charting resources from StockCharts.com.
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On Tuesday, we discussed stocks, and the following day, we examined bonds. Today, we turn our attention to commodities, continuing our focus on momentum across the major asset classes, as analyzed through a set of proxy ETFs.
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In our previous piece, we analyzed the forecast for stocks using a momentum profile based on major asset classes and proxy ETFs. Today, our focus will shift to exploring bonds worldwide, using price data as of December 27. Our analysis utilizes a two-part approach with 50- and 200-day moving averages, supplemented with one-year trailing returns (252 trading days). The aim is to gain insight into the near-term outlook for various market segments. For this price trend analysis, we will concentrate on price-only data, excluding distributions, with resources from StockCharts.com.
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This selection of articles covers significant topics pertaining to mutual funds, economic forecasts, and market trends from the past few years. While the financial landscape continues to evolve, understanding these elements is key to better navigation of future opportunities.
In summary, the reflections on economic indicators and asset performance offer valuable insights into the ongoing changes in the market. Staying informed will aid investors in making strategic decisions in an ever-shifting financial environment.
