In August, private payrolls experienced an increase of 96,000, falling slightly short of expectations, as reported in today’s update from the Labor Department. This modest growth has reignited concerns that the ongoing economic slowdown could lead to a recession in the near future. While the one-year trend remains indicative of healthy growth, there are emerging signs that should cause some concern.
U.S. stocks have seen significant fluctuations this year. However, if we look beyond the recent volatility, we can see that all major equity factors are achieving healthy returns, based on several exchange-traded funds. Among these, the top performers are experiencing remarkable gains, significantly outperforming the relative underachievers.
Hurricane Dorian is currently battering North Carolina: CNN
The U.S. and China are scheduled to meet in October for trade talks: CNBC
A slowdown in U.S. job growth is expected in the Labor Department’s latest update: Reuters
Global growth decelerated in August, reaching a near three-year low: IHS Markit
Germany’s industrial output continued to decline in July: Bloomberg
U.S. factory orders increased for the second consecutive month in July: MW
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index accelerated to a moderately strong pace in August: Bloomberg
The U.S. Services PMI grew at a sluggish rate in August: IHS Markit
Jobless claims in the U.S. remained near half-century lows last week: Private payrolls in the U.S. rose by 195k in August, marking the best pace in four months: ADP
Yesterday’s Beige Book report from the Federal Reserve reveals an optimistic view, indicating that the economy “expanded at a modest pace through the end of August.” However, there are emerging challenges suggesting that the remainder of the year may pose difficulties, raising questions about how the central bank will respond to a slowing economic landscape.
Hurricane Dorian poses a threat to the Carolinas: CNN
China and the U.S. have scheduled trade discussions for early October: WSJ
New recession warnings emerge for Germany as factory orders fell in July: Bloomberg
The UK Parliament has blocked a no-deal Brexit: Vox
Will Hong Kong’s leader’s concession be sufficient to end protests? Vox
The Fed’s Beige Book presents a positive outlook for the U.S. economy: MW
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed slightly in July: Reuters
The GDPNow model has revised U.S. GDP growth for Q3 down to a sluggish +1.5%: Atlanta Fed
Today’s ADP estimate of U.S. payrolls for August is expected to show a 1.7% annual gain.
The risk premium for the Global Market Index fell to an annualized 4.6% in this revised outlook, based on data compiled through August. This marks a modest decline from last month’s analysis. The GMI is an unmanaged market-value-weighted portfolio that includes all the major asset classes (excluding cash). This forecast represents the expected premium over the anticipated “risk-free” rate for the long term.
After striking the Bahamas, Hurricane Dorian is now hitting Florida’s coast: Reuters
The Hong Kong leader plans to withdraw the controversial bill that sparked protests: WSJ
The UK’s Brexit situation is nearing a crisis point following a parliamentary vote: CNBC
Gold prices are anticipated to continue rising as the Fed plans rate cuts: Bloomberg
Global manufacturing PMI reflects a mild contraction in August: IHS Markit
Eurozone PMI shows stabilization at a slow growth rate in August: IHS Markit
U.S. construction spending rose in July, but the year-on-year trend remains negative: Reuters
The U.S. PMI Manufacturing Index was virtually flat in August: IHS Markit
The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index indicated contraction in August, marking the first decline in three years: Bloomberg
In August, U.S. real estate investment trusts (REITs) and investment-grade bonds experienced a surge, as risk-averse sentiments dominated trading globally. Meanwhile, equities and commodities faced declines as investors gravitated towards safer assets.
Following its impact on the Bahamas, Hurricane Dorian is now heading toward the U.S.: CNN
The U.S. is moving closer to withdrawing troops from Afghanistan: Fox
The U.S.-China trade war is negatively affecting the global economy: WSJ
Goldman Sachs reports that inflation outside the U.S. is accelerating: Bloomberg
Consumer spending in the U.S. surged in August: MW
However, trade concerns weighed on U.S. consumer sentiment in August: Bloomberg
Manufacturing activity in the UK experienced its most significant decline in seven years during August: Reuters
China’s manufacturing sector contracted for the fourth consecutive month in August: NBS
The Eurozone manufacturing sector also continued to contract in August: IHS Markit
Today, we celebrate Labor Day in the USA!
