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<p><strong>Impeachment and Trade Talks</strong></p>
<p>The U.S. House has released an impeachment report stating that President Trump abused his power. For further details, check out this [article](https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/472825-house-intel-democrats-release-ukraine-findings-ahead-of-impeachment) from The Hill.</p>
<p>Trump has hinted that the U.S.-China trade war might extend past the 2020 elections. More insights can be found in this [WSJ piece](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-says-trade-war-could-drag-on-stokes-france-spat-11575374711).</p>
<p>Despite recent tensions, reports suggest that the U.S. and China are edging closer to a trade deal. For the latest updates, refer to this [Bloomberg article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-04/u-s-china-move-closer-to-trade-deal-despite-heated-rhetoric).</p>
<p>As concerns grow about a new round of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods set for December 15, investors remain apprehensive. Additional context is provided in this [CNBC report](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/03/investors-fear-repeat-of-last-decembers-sell-off-if-trump-lets-tariffs-take-effect-dec-15.html).</p>
<p>China’s Composite PMI for November indicates a solid rebound in its economy, as highlighted in an [IHS Markit update](https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/6dc0f3f13acc4d589b0dc645c3c19d67).</p>
<p>In contrast, the Eurozone economy showed near-stagnant growth in November, with more details available in this [IHS Markit release](https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/137b904cd243418fa2f8d7faaa0cce2d).</p>
<p>Finally, the 10-year Treasury yield has sharply decreased to 1.72%, marking the lowest rate since October 31:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/ten.yr_.04dec2019.png"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13253" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/ten.yr_.04dec2019.png" alt="" width="700" height="312" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-4-december-2019/" title="5:43 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2019-12-04T05:43:39-05:00">December 4, 2019</time></a>
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<p>The risk premium outlook for the Global Market Index (GMI) increased for the third consecutive month in November. This adjustment resulted from changing market conditions and raised the GMI's expected long-term return to an annualized 4.9%, not including the “risk-free” rate. This new figure slightly surpasses last month’s forecast of 4.8% and is a modest improvement from last year’s estimate of 4.6%. Notably, the GMI is an unmanaged, market-value-weighted portfolio encompassing all major asset classes, excluding cash.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-premia-forecasts-major-asset-classes-3-december-2019/#more-13248" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-premia-forecasts-major-asset-classes-3-december-2019/" title="6:36 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2019-12-03T06:36:12-05:00">December 3, 2019</time></a>
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<p>Concerns have grown as the U.S threatens to impose new tariffs on French goods in reaction to a digital tax. For more details, visit this [CNBC article](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/03/us-vows-100percent-tariffs-on-french-champagne-cheese-over-digital-tax.html).</p>
<p>In retaliation, France has stated its intention to respond to the American tariff threat, as revealed in this [Bloomberg report](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-02/u-s-proposes-2-4-billion-in-tariffs-on-france-over-digital-tax?srnd=premium).</p>
<p>Furthermore, the Global Manufacturing PMI shows growth in November, marking the first increase in seven months. For further insights, see the [IHS Markit update](https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/9327bfd6ab96442a9c259b5a87f13adc).</p>
<p>Is the global economy's fate intertwined with the strength of U.S. consumers? Explore this perspective in a [Bloomberg opinion piece](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-12-02/u-s-consumer-strength-is-key-for-global-economic-outlook).</p>
<p>U.S. construction spending has decreased in October; however, the one-year trend indicates a return to growth. More details can be found in this [MarketWatch article](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/construction-spending-falls-in-october-missing-forecasts-2019-12-02).</p>
<p>In contrast to ISM data, U.S. Manufacturing PMI has rebounded in November, as reported by [IHS Markit](https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/f3393ea3f8e44ad2b6320c7af89de3e8).</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index is still showing mild contraction within the sector as stated in this [ISM report](https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm?SSO=1).</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/ism.02dec2019.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13247" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/ism.02dec2019.png" alt="" width="497" height="304" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-3-december-2019/" title="5:34 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2019-12-03T05:34:30-05:00">December 3, 2019</time></a>
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<p>The U.S. stock market distinguished itself as the top performer among major asset classes in November. This notable increase in American equity was especially remarkable given that the month generally trended downward.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-november-2019-performance-review/#more-13241" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-november-2019-performance-review/" title="7:04 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2019-12-02T07:04:43-05:00">December 2, 2019</time></a>
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<p>The U.N. Secretary-General emphasizes the need to cease the “war against nature” ahead of upcoming climate talks, as reported by [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-accord-guterres/war-against-nature-must-stop-u-n-chief-says-before-climate-talks-idUSKBN1Y514H).</p>
<p>China has suspended U.S. Navy visits to Hong Kong and imposed sanctions on U.S.-based organizations due to ongoing tensions, detailed in this [Reuters article](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests-china-usa/china-suspends-u-s-military-visits-to-hong-kong-sanctions-u-s-based-ngos-idUSKBN1Y60IQ).</p>
<p>China's manufacturing sector has shown greater-than-expected growth in November, as indicated in this [CNBC piece](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/02/china-economy-caixin-markit-manufacturing-pmi-for-november.html).</p>
<p>Keep an eye on U.S. manufacturing data released today, as detailed in this [CNBC report](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/29/market-outlook-for-monday-manufacturing-december-trading-cyber-monday.html).</p>
<p>In the Euro area, the manufacturing sector continues to contract in November. More on this can be found in this [IHS Markit release](https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/9c664d0a75e844989d68f4a649338e68).</p>
<p>For the UK, manufacturing contracts due to ongoing Brexit uncertainties, as indicated by this [IHS Markit report](https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/ba981e4e5aad44c38c77655144d907d1).</p>
<p>Lastly, global debt is expected to reach a record-breaking $255 trillion in 2019, according to Bloomberg. More details can be found [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-01/the-way-out-for-a-world-economy-hooked-on-debt-yet-more-debt?srnd=premium).</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/debt.02dec2019.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13245" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/debt.02dec2019.png" alt="" width="798" height="468" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-2-december-2019/" title="6:10 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2019-12-02T06:10:28-05:00">December 2, 2019</time></a>
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<p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/147369616X/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=147369616X&linkCode=as2&tag=bookscs-20&linkId=b08fd570c76e94392528ed679c35cde5" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><img decoding="async" class="alignleft" src="https://ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&MarketPlace=US&ASIN=147369616X&ServiceVersion=20070822&ID=AsinImage&WS=1&Format=_SL250_&tag=bookscs-20" border="0"/></a><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" src="https://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=bookscs-20&l=am2&o=1&a=147369616X" alt="" width="1" height="1" border="0"/>● <a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/147369616X/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=147369616X&linkCode=as2&tag=bookscs-20&linkId=76980f6f737163be73c300d9bc059739" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The AI Economy: Work, Wealth and Welfare in the Age of the Robot</a><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" src="https://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=bookscs-20&l=am2&o=1&a=147369616X" alt="" width="1" height="1" border="0"/><br/>By Roger Bootle<br/><strong><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/39d5bd82-0bf5-11ea-bb52-34c8d9dc6d84">Summary</a> via FT</strong><br/>Bootle, chairman of Capital Economics, suggests that the economic implications of artificial intelligence may not differ significantly from those of past technological advancements; that changes may not occur as swiftly as anticipated; and that incremental adjustments in policy, rather than a drastic shift towards universal basic income, would be the appropriate response. His insights are worth exploring.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-30-november-2019/#more-13220" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-30-november-2019/" title="8:39 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2019-11-30T08:39:26-05:00">November 30, 2019</time></a>
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<p>Today marks the start of a new column that will focus on various ETFs that have experienced significant changes recently. We will begin with nearly 100 equity funds, both U.S. and international. For a comprehensive list, refer to a recent edition of [The ETF Portfolio Strategist](https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/etf.strategist.11nov2019.pdf). The objective is to spotlight substantial gains and losses at the fringes of market activity, where the potential for developing slightly more reliable short-term predictions may exist. Keep in mind that all standard disclaimers apply as we proceed carefully.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/off-the-charts-extreme-moves-in-etfs-29-november-2019/#more-13233" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/off-the-charts-extreme-moves-in-etfs-29-november-2019/" title="7:42 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2019-11-29T07:42:54-05:00">November 29, 2019</time></a>
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<p>President Trump has resumed talks with the Taliban during a surprise visit to U.S. troops in Afghanistan. For more on this, see [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/472381-trump-makes-surprise-thanksgiving-visit-to-troops-in-afghanistan).</p>
<p>Meanwhile, North Korea has fired two short-range missiles, emphasizing ongoing tensions, as reported by [AP](https://apnews.com/773e2ffd5e5c461f99993c274181bfee).</p>
<p>The question remains: Could U.S. legislation regarding Hong Kong disrupt trade discussions with China? The answer might not be straightforward; read more in this [NY Times article](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/28/business/china-hong-kong-trump-trade.html).</p>
<p>Is a robust U.S. job market Trump's ticket to re-election? Insights are offered in this [WSJ piece](https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-tight-job-market-insulates-a-slowing-economyand-perhaps-trump-too-11574971449?mod=hp_lead_pos5).</p>
<p>In China, signs of financial strain are becoming more prevalent, as detailed in a [Bloomberg report](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-28/china-s-financial-warning-signs-are-flashing-almost-everywhere).</p>
<p>A recent poll indicates that the UK's Conservatives are poised for a significant victory in the upcoming December elections; additional details are available in this [Reuters report](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-election-poll/uks-conservatives-set-for-biggest-win-since-1987-yougov-model-idUSKBN1Y12KQ).</p>
<p>Germany's retail spending saw a sharp decline in October. More on this can be found in this [Reuters article](https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-economy-salesfigures/german-retail-sales-drop-in-october-idUSKBN1Y30LD).</p>
<p>Japan experienced a significant drop in industrial output in October. For insights, see this [Nikkei Asian Review piece](https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Japan-s-industrial-output-falls-4.2-in-October-on-weak-demand).</p>
<p>This downturn in Japan's retail sales followed a tax hike, as outlined in this [Japan Times article](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/11/28/business/economy-business/japans-retail-sales-down/#.Xd_GSehKhPY).</p>
<p>On a brighter note, the U.S. stock market kicked off the last trading day of November at a record high:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/sp500.29nov2019.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-13232" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/sp500.29nov2019.png" alt="" width="700" height="313" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-29-november-2019/" title="6:05 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2019-11-29T06:05:16-05:00">November 29, 2019</time></a>
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<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/thanksgiving.2019.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="wp-image-13229 alignleft" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/thanksgiving.2019-1024x642.png" alt="" width="346" height="217" /></a>“As we express our gratitude, we must never forget that the highest appreciation is not to utter words, but to live by them.”</p>
<p style="text-align: right;"><em>– John F. Kennedy</em></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/happy-thanksgiving-5/" title="7:28 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2019-11-28T07:28:59-05:00">November 28, 2019</time></a>
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<p>Throughout much of this year, especially leading to early September, interest rates displayed a notable downward bias, driven primarily by economic pessimism. The yield curve between the 10-year and 3-month Treasury notes inverted during the spring and typically remained below zero, symbolizing potential recession forecasts. However, in the past three months, this yield curve has turned positive and interest rates have rebounded. Despite this rebound, current economic data looks no better than the macroeconomic profile from three months ago; in fact, there has been a slight weakening in the economic trend. Does this suggest that interest rates may revert to a downward trajectory as we close out 2019?</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-the-recent-rebound-in-interest-rates-fading/#more-13223" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-the-recent-rebound-in-interest-rates-fading/" title="7:38 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2019-11-27T07:38:56-05:00">November 27, 2019</time></a>
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