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<p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B08JM7KZD6/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=B08JM7KZD6&linkCode=as2&tag=thecapitalspe-20&linkId=466a55310b6b76c7406067550a09c6cd" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img decoding="async" class="alignleft" src="https://ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&MarketPlace=US&ASIN=B08JM7KZD6&ServiceVersion=20070822&ID=AsinImage&WS=1&Format=_SL250_&tag=thecapitalspe-20" border="0"/></a>● <a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B08JM7KZD6/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=B08JM7KZD6&linkCode=as2&tag=thecapitalspe-20&linkId=e239828f3f6d7ebfe6e50e87250e119a" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Day the Markets Roared: How a 1982 Forecast Sparked a Global Bull Market</a><br/>Henry Kaufman<br/><strong><a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-money/2021/04/13/crypto-goes-to-washington-794628">Interview</a> with author via Politico</strong><br/><em>Henry Kaufman, often referred to as Dr. Doom during his 26-year tenure at Salomon Brothers, offers a new perspective in his latest book, ‘The Day the Markets Roared: How a 1982 Forecast Sparked a Global Bull Market.’ He emphasizes the growing dominance of central banks, suggesting that this could pose significant risks to the financial system.</em><br/><em>‘We're transitioning into an environment I describe as statism, where the federal government and the Federal Reserve wield extensive control over the economic and financial landscape—a scenario historically seen during wartime, not in peacetime,’ Kaufman stated in an interview.</em></p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-17-april-2021/#more-15863" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-17-april-2021/" title="7:43 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-04-17T07:43:53-04:00">April 17, 2021</time></a>
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<p>In this issue:</p>
<ul>
<li><em>Market rallies extend across various asset classes this week</em></li>
<li><em>Portfolio strategy benchmarks yield another week of robust gains</em></li>
</ul>
<p><a href="https://etfps.substack.com/p/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-16-april">Continue reading at The ETF Portfolio Strategist</a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-16-april-2021/" title="6:41 pm" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-04-16T18:41:39-04:00">April 16, 2021</time></a>
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<p>The U.S. economic outlook continues to show positive trends in preparation for the first-quarter estimate of gross domestic product (GDP). Based on current projections, the Q1 report, scheduled for release on April 29 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, is expected to reflect a significantly stronger growth rate compared to last quarter’s considerable rise.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-q1-gdp-estimate-revised-up-after-upbeat-economic-reports/#more-15880" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-q1-gdp-estimate-revised-up-after-upbeat-economic-reports/" title="7:27 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-04-16T07:27:00-04:00">April 16, 2021</time></a>
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<p>* China's GDP <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/16/china-economy-q1-gdp.html">surged</a> year-over-year in Q1<br/>* Pfizer's CEO indicates that the public will likely require a <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/pfizer-ceo-says-third-covid-vaccine-dose-likely-needed-within-12-months.html">third COVID-19 shot</a> within the next year<br/>* The Japanese Prime Minister will be the first foreign leader to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/biden-welcome-japans-suga-first-guest-key-ally-china-strategy-2021-04-16/">visit</a> Biden's White House<br/>* Biden has <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/15/business/joe-biden-banks-russian-debt/index.html">prohibited</a> U.S. banks from engaging in Russian debt sales<br/>* Economist Nouriel Roubini highlights that stagflation is an increasing economic threat, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/apr/15/why-stagflation-is-a-growing-threat-to-the-global-economy">predicting</a> significant challenges<br/>* Jobless claims in the U.S. have <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/weekly-jobless-claims-coronavirus-04-15-2021-11618433294">dropped</a> to their lowest level during the pandemic<br/>* Two regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/empire-state-philly-fed-factory-indexes-jump-in-april-11618490855">indicate</a> stronger growth in April<br/>* U.S. industrial production <a href="https://apnews.com/article/united-states-c1f8487c0c707d0b0b039b08dff8a0fd">rebounded</a> in March, driven by a surge in manufacturing<br/>* U.S. retail sales <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/us-retail-sales-march-2021.html">spiked</a> in March due to stimulus checks:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/retail.16apr2021.png"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-15879" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/retail.16apr2021.png" alt="" width="1910" height="1097" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-16-april-2021/" title="6:09 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-04-16T06:09:33-04:00">April 16, 2021</time></a>
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<p>In a <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/asset-allocation-is-a-strategy-to-capture-average-performance/">recent post</a>, I explored how asset allocation can be a valuable approach for achieving average to above-average returns while maintaining a similar risk profile amid a specific opportunity set. Let's broaden this concept with a practical analysis of three additional market segments: U.S. fixed income, U.S. equity sectors, and U.S. equity risk factors.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/capturing-average-returns-with-asset-allocation-part-ii/#more-15874" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/capturing-average-returns-with-asset-allocation-part-ii/" title="7:40 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-04-15T07:40:51-04:00">April 15, 2021</time></a>
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<p>* The U.S. plans to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/14/us/politics/biden-russia-sanctions.html">implement</a> deeper sanctions against Russia<br/>* The intended U.S. military withdrawal raises concerns about an <a href="https://apnews.com/article/world-news-afghanistan-troop-withdrawals-islamabad-015703a459088547531a755819897040">uncertain future</a> for Afghanistan<br/>* Over 100 companies have <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-georgia-voting-companies/more-than-100-companies-sign-letter-opposing-u-s-state-voting-restrictions-idUSKBN2C12JR">signed a letter</a> opposing state voting restrictions in the U.S.<br/>* Wall Street banks <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/14/business/wall-street-banks-earnings.html">report</a> growth in earnings and anticipate strong economic recovery<br/>* Hedge funds <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/41228729-2351-46e0-8d67-8003f7fffc0d">achieve</a> their best year-to-date returns in over a decade<br/>* Concerns arise about the potential consequences when U.S. economic stimulus fades away, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/14/policy-and-fiscal-risk-could-hamper-a-long-term-economic-recovery.html">analysts warn</a><br/>* Fed Chairman Powell states the central bank plans to taper bond purchases ‘well before’ increasing interest rates, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/central-bank-will-begin-reducing-bond-purchases-well-before-raising-interest-rates-powell-says-11618421656?mod=hp_lista_pos4">confirming</a> this<br/>* The Fed's Beige Book reveals that U.S. economic activity <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202104.htm">has accelerated</a> since February<br/>* The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury has remained consistent for two consecutive days, hovering near a three-week low:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ten.yr_.15apr2021.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-15873" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/ten.yr_.15apr2021.png" alt="" width="700" height="530" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-15-april-2021/" title="5:45 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-04-15T05:45:56-04:00">April 15, 2021</time></a>
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<p>In this issue:</p>
<ul>
<li><em>Has the bond market slump come to an end?</em></li>
<li><em>Are European equities on the verge of a resurgence?</em></li>
</ul>
<p><a href="https://etfps.substack.com/p/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-14-april"><em>Continue reading at The ETF Portfolio Strategist</em></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-14-april-2021/" title="6:49 pm" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-04-14T18:49:44-04:00">April 14, 2021</time></a>
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<p>The headline inflation rate saw a significant increase in March, but the bond market reacted with indifference.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-consumer-inflation-rises-but-unclear-if-its-sustainable/#more-15867" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-consumer-inflation-rises-but-unclear-if-its-sustainable/" title="7:21 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-04-14T07:21:00-04:00">April 14, 2021</time></a>
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<p>* Today Biden will <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/13/politics/biden-afghanistan-withdrawal/index.html">announce</a> the withdrawal of U.S. military troops from Afghanistan by September 11<br/>* The U.S. and NATO <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/13/world/europe/us-military-germany.html">express</a> strong support for Ukraine amidst a Russian troop build-up<br/>* China <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-taiwan-china/as-bidens-emissaries-go-to-taiwan-china-terms-exercises-combat-drills-idUSKBN2C109Y">conducts</a> military exercises near Taiwan as U.S. officials plan a visit to Taipei<br/>* The IRS chief states that $1 trillion in taxes may go <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/irs-chief-says-1-trillion-in-taxes-may-go-uncollectedeach-year-11618337765">uncollected</a> annually<br/>* Global reliance on fossil fuels <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/14/climate-global-fossil-fuel-use-accelerating-and-set-to-get-even-worse.html">is expected</a> to increase significantly in the coming years<br/>* The sentiment among small businesses in the U.S. has slightly improved in March but remains modest, <a href="https://www.nfib.com/surveys/small-business-economic-trends/">according to reports</a><br/>* Money managers are <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-14/-make-or-break-call-on-inflation-is-stumping-global-investors?srnd=premium">evaluating</a> a critical inflation outlook<br/>* The U.S. headline 1-year consumer inflation <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/13/us-consumer-price-index-march-2021.html">increased</a> sharply in March:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/cpi.14apr2021.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-15865" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/cpi.14apr2021.png" alt="" width="650" height="450" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-14-april-2021/" title="6:10 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-04-14T06:10:17-04:00">April 14, 2021</time></a>
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<p>Every investment strategy presents its own unique advantages and disadvantages. Are you aware of how your strategy measures up? As a benchmark, consider an unmanaged, market-weighted asset allocation strategy.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/asset-allocation-is-a-strategy-to-capture-average-performance/#more-15861" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/asset-allocation-is-a-strategy-to-capture-average-performance/" title="7:38 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-04-13T07:38:55-04:00">April 13, 2021</time></a>
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