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<p>* The Federal Reserve is bracing for an <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/03/business/Biden-Federal-Reserve-economic-challenges.html">autumn filled with uncertainty</a>, driven by the Delta variant of the coronavirus.<br />* Asia's economic recovery has become increasingly susceptible to the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/delta-variant-stalls-asias-economic-recovery-after-early-rebound-11627922736">impact of the Delta variant</a>.<br />* The chairman of the SEC is contemplating <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-03/will-government-regulate-crypto-sec-chair-gary-gensler-on-bitcoin-and-oversight?srnd=premium">stricter regulations</a> for cryptocurrency investments.<br />* The global chip shortage that has plagued the automotive industry is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/when-chips-are-down-global-shortage-keep-crimping-carmakers-2021-08-03/">expected to persist</a>.<br />* The Global Manufacturing PMI <a href="https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/f412be3b367347ffb3f63f2d0c8ca69c">declined</a> in July but still signals solid growth.<br />* Manufacturing growth in the US <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-manufacturing-sector-growth-slowing-ism-2021-08-02/">slowed</a> for the second consecutive month according to ISM survey data.<br />* Construction spending in the US <a href="https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/pdf/release.pdf">inched up</a> in June, though the trend remains stagnant.<br />* The yield on the US 10-Year Treasury fell to 1.20% on Monday, hovering just above a six-month low:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ten.yr_.03aug2021.png"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-16454" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/ten.yr_.03aug2021.png" alt="" width="700" height="530" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-3-august-2021/" title="6:20 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-08-03T06:20:35-04:00">August 3, 2021</time></a>
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<p>Most major asset classes experienced positive momentum in July, with US real estate investment trusts (REITs) leading the charge. However, stocks in emerging markets were the only ones to report losses last month.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-july-2021-performance-review/#more-16450" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-july-2021-performance-review/" title="7:32 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-08-02T07:32:44-04:00">August 2, 2021</time></a>
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<p>* A bipartisan group in the Senate has <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/01/politics/infrastructure-bill-senate-bipartisan/index.html">finalized the infrastructure bill</a> text.<br />* Democrats are urging the White House to <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/08/01/1023581861/pelosi-democrats-call-on-biden-to-extend-eviction-ban">extend the eviction ban</a>.<br />* The US and UK <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-58048007">hold Iran accountable</a> for a deadly tanker attack off the coast of Oman.<br />* The pandemic has led to a drop in interest rates that has <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/491a245d-4af7-4cad-b860-6ba51b86b45f">triggered a global surge in housing prices</a>.<br />* The world's largest pension fund <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-01/world-s-biggest-pension-fund-cuts-u-s-bond-weighting-by-record">has sharply reduced its US bond weighting</a> to 35%.<br />* Millions of unemployed individuals in the US may <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/01/an-unemployment-cliff-is-coming-more-than-7point5-million-may-fall-off.html">face the cessation of support within a month</a>.<br />* The Federal Reserve may reassess its monetary policy in light of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/31/business/economy/home-prices-interest-rates-fed.html">soaring housing prices</a>.<br />* The revised Eurozone Manufacturing Index for July <a href="https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/e8db275755144aeaa6fdaab039e1dfad">shows a ‘resilient’ output figure</a>.<br />* The Indian Manufacturing Index <a href="https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/39c2f20ade324af098b99822352364b8">returned to growth</a> in July after a brief contraction.<br />* The US 10-year and 3-month Treasury yield curve continues to flatten:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/yld.curve_.02aug2021.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-16449" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/yld.curve_.02aug2021.png" alt="" width="700" height="530" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-2-august-2021/" title="6:00 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-08-02T06:00:10-04:00">August 2, 2021</time></a>
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<p>While economic and financial news circulated last week, the overall result was a minimal shift marked by a slight downward bias for our proprietary strategies. The calm appearance in strategy activity obscured significant <a href="https://etfps.substack.com/p/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-30-july">turbulence affecting some sectors within the underlying 16-fund opportunity set.</a></p>
<p><em><a href="https://etfps.substack.com/p/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-1-august">Continue reading at The ETF Portfolio Strategist</a></em></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-1-august-2021/" title="3:51 pm" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-08-01T15:51:07-04:00">August 1, 2021</time></a>
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<p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0190086351/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0190086351&linkCode=as2&tag=thecapitalspe-20&linkId=6d61a4d0d3ac0eaf28ca6df7bc6d94b3" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img decoding="async" class="alignleft" src="https://ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&MarketPlace=US&ASIN=0190086351&ServiceVersion=20070822&ID=AsinImage&WS=1&Format=_SL250_&tag=thecapitalspe-20" border="0" /></a>● <a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0190086351/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0190086351&linkCode=as2&tag=thecapitalspe-20&linkId=b19ee24b8d067ffeb005bbb2b958240d" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Populism and Trade: The Challenge to the Global Trading System</a><br />Kent Jones<br /><strong><a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/populism-and-trade-9780190086350?cc=us&lang=en">Summary</a> via publisher (Oxford U. Press)</strong><br />Populism globally has harnessed anxieties surrounding globalization and various forms of social, cultural, and economic change. Numerous populist leaders have conflated concerns regarding trade with worries about immigration, launching compelling campaigns aimed at dismantling current trade agreements and the multilateral collaboration they represent. In the United States, the protectionist stance of Donald Trump sought not only to increase tariffs but also to destabilize the global trading framework underpinned by the World Trade Organization. In the UK, the Brexit referendum marked a significant shift, culminating in the country's exit from the European Union and the termination of its commitment to trade integration with the continent.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-31-july-2021/#more-16422" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-31-july-2021/" title="7:46 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-07-31T07:46:23-04:00">July 31, 2021</time></a>
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<ul>
<li><em>US small-cap stocks are showing signs of recovery, yet the outlook remains mixed</em></li>
<li><em>US bonds continue their upward trend as interest rates decline further</em></li>
<li><em>Equal-weight global asset allocation leads our strategy benchmarks both this week and this year!</em></li>
</ul>
<p>Small caps are experiencing a resurgence: For the second consecutive week, small-cap shares rebounded. The iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) increased by 1.7% during the week ending July 30, marking the strongest gain across our global opportunity set.</p>
<p><em><a href="https://etfps.substack.com/p/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-30-july">Continue reading at The ETF Portfolio Strategist</a></em></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-30-july-2021/" title="6:57 pm" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-07-30T18:57:01-04:00">July 30, 2021</time></a>
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<p>Economists expect another decline in the upcoming June report regarding US personal income. This trend raises concerns since personal income has lagged behind the remarkable rebounds seen in employment, consumer spending, and industrial production—often referred to as the Big Four indicators of US macroeconomic activity.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/personal-incomes-weak-rebound-clouds-us-economic-outlook/#more-16437" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/personal-incomes-weak-rebound-clouds-us-economic-outlook/" title="7:43 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-07-30T07:43:55-04:00">July 30, 2021</time></a>
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<p>* The Delta variant poses a <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-gdp-economic-growth-first-quarter-2021-11627508180">challenge</a> to the US economic outlook.<br />* The Eurozone economy <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/30/euro-zone-gdp-q2-2021.html">rebounded</a> in the second quarter after a recession.<br />* Western countries <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/subsidies-chips-china-state-aid-biden-11627565906?mod=hp_lead_pos5">adopt industrial policies</a> to counter competition from China.<br />* The CRB Commodities Index <a href="https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui">rose</a> to a six-year high in Thursday's trading session.<br />* Amazon <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/29/amazon-amzn-earnings-q2-2021.html">reported</a> revenue growth, although it was below expectations.<br />* US jobless claims <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-29/u-s-jobless-claims-declined-last-week-near-pandemic-low">declined</a> last week, nearing pandemic lows.<br />* US GDP <a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-us-gdp-51627510263">grew</a> less than predicted in Q2 but still surpassed Q1's growth (just slightly):</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/gdp.30jul2021.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-16436" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/gdp.30jul2021.png" alt="" width="808" height="508" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-30-july-2021/" title="5:55 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-07-30T05:55:57-04:00">July 30, 2021</time></a>
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<p>The decline in Chinese equities has accelerated recently due to an intensifying regulatory crackdown by Beijing on domestic companies. The market showed some recovery in trading on Thursday, July 29, after a sharp decline earlier in the week. However, year-to-date performance remains deeply negative for China's stock market.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/political-risk-continues-to-weigh-on-china-stocks/#more-16431" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/political-risk-continues-to-weigh-on-china-stocks/" title="7:16 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-07-29T07:16:59-04:00">July 29, 2021</time></a>
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<p>* The Senate has <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/28/infrastructure-vote-senate-advances-bipartisan-bill.html">advanced</a> the infrastructure bill with the backing of 17 Republicans.<br />* The Federal Reserve reports that the economic recovery is <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-57979270">"continuing to make progress."</a> <br />* China is attempting to <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/d3d30930-b098-40f0-a628-448c0b532b6d">reassure Wall Street</a> after its regulatory actions.<br />* Economic confidence in the Eurozone <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-29/euro-area-reopening-boom-lifts-confidence-to-all-time-high?srnd=economics-vp">surged</a> to an all-time high in July.<br />* Inflation has emerged as a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/28/business/inflation-republicans-biden-spending.html">political tool</a> within Washington.<br />* US gasoline prices have ticked up, nearing seven-year highs:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/gasoline.29jul2021.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-16429" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/gasoline.29jul2021.png" alt="" width="700" height="530" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-29-july-2021/" title="6:13 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-07-29T06:13:05-04:00">July 29, 2021</time></a>
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