In December, I speculated whether commodities might be the unexpected investment choice for 2024. Now, four months later, it’s clear that there’s no competition among the major asset classes: commodities are significantly outperforming others, based on a selection of ETFs as of Friday’s market close (April 19).
* Persistent inflation appears set for confirmation in Friday’s PCE inflation data
* Oil prices declined on Monday as tensions between Iran and Israel moderated
* China’s increased gold purchases play a significant role in the recent rise in prices
* The cost of homeownership in the US has reached an all-time high: Redfin
* The yield on US 10-year Treasuries is starting the week close to a five-month high:
● Growth: A History And A Reckoning
Daniel Susskind
Review via Financial Times
The book navigates centuries of complex thinking on growth. Initially, Thomas Malthus and his contemporaries argued that growth was inherently unsustainable, as a growing population would eventually exhaust resources. Later, development economists at the World Bank promoted a “fetish” for investment, emphasizing that tangible physical capital was crucial for development. Recently, advocates of “degrowth,” including figures like activist Greta Thunberg and anthropologist Jason Hickel, have emerged. Although their arguments can be somewhat vague, they fundamentally fear that economic growth threatens Earth’s resources, advocating instead for reduced growth to avert environmental disaster.
Israel has initiated its much-anticipated military response against Iran, as reported earlier today, putting financial markets on alert as investors assess the potential consequences. The risk of a broader conflict remains uncertain, although initial reports suggest that Israel’s strike may be strategically limited to prevent escalating tensions into a full-scale war with Iran.
* Israel conducts a retaliatory strike against Iran
* Two Federal Reserve officials assert there’s no urgency to lower interest rates
* The Leading Economic Index for the US dipped in March
* US existing home sales declined in March
* US jobless claims remained steady, continuing to reflect a robust labor market:
The market’s anticipated timeline for interest rate cuts has shown a consistent trend: dates have been pushed forward. Historically, this pattern has been observed, and September is now regarded as the earliest possible timeline for policy adjustments.
* Some economists now anticipate that rate cuts may be delayed until March 2025,
* The Fed’s Beige Book indicates stable economic growth but little advancement on inflation
* An ‘insatiable’ demand for AI is expected to boost Q2 sales for the world’s largest chipmaker
* A study estimates that the climate change bill could reach $38 trillion annually by 2049, according to research
* The US dollar’s status as the dominant reserve currency is likely to persist: Morgan Stanley
Responding to recent data, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged on Tuesday that progress against inflation has stagnated, resulting in a weakened case for interest rate cuts. The Treasury market has echoed these sentiments for weeks, but Powell’s assertion brings a heightened level of attention.
* Fed Chair Powell points out the lack of further progress on inflation
* The US is projected to grow at double the rate of G7 countries in 2024, according to the IMF
* The decline of free-market policies worldwide raises concerns among economists, according to reports
* US industrial output grew for the second consecutive month in March
* US housing starts in March fell to the lowest level in seven months:
The recent sharp decline in US equities has brought attention back to a fundamental truth: the market can and does decline. This may seem obvious, yet it often goes unnoticed during a period of continuous price increases, which has characterized much of the past six months—until now.
—
This adaptation captures the essence of the original content while enhancing readability and flow. Each section remains clearly structured, maintaining a similar layout with HTML formatting intact.