In this update, we’ll focus on the latest developments surrounding the ongoing conflict in Yemen, particularly the rising tensions on the Yemen-Saudi front. This overview will cover key events and provide insights from more in-depth analyses.
Recently, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi convened an emergency session of the Egyptian parliament to discuss the possibility of defending Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman’s regime in Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, the UAE has decided to resume funding its mercenary forces in Yemen. In a significant escalation, Ansar Allah has reported successfully downing a Saudi Apache helicopter near Najran and a reconnaissance drone over Hajjah.
The situation has led to heightened alert status in Riyadh, where alarms sounded across the city and explosions were reported. Additionally, the US embassy confirmed the arrest of American citizens for violating Saudi laws against photographing damaged areas. The Saudis also asserted that they had intercepted an Ansar Allah missile destined for Yanbu.
According to a report from The New York Times, multiple high-profile events in Saudi Arabia—including the Urban Cycling World Championships, a global forum hosted by the Misk Foundation (which has been cancelled), and the EU-GCC summit (postponed)—are at risk due to ongoing hostilities. The report notably omits the possibility of high-stakes events such as a boxing match featuring Mexican star Canelo Alvarez on Halloween, along with a WWE pro-wrestling event and an Ultimate Fighting Championship card slated for November, which may also be affected.
As hostilities continue, Saudi airstrikes remain unrelenting, resulting in civilian casualties including women and children, while Ansar Allah forces advance into western Taiz and engage Saudi-aligned forces in Badr, near Aden.
💢NEW: Ansarallah pushes into western Taiz city on multiple fronts and consolidates control over Jabal Han.
Ansar forces have advanced into multiple neighborhoods in western Taiz city, southwestern Yemen, while clashing with the 35th Armored Brigade of the Taiz Military Axis. They are currently pressing down both main roads towards the junction in the strategic transportation hub of Bir Basha. With the current territorial gains, Ansarallah has also established effective control over all of Jabal Han, which overlooks the city from the west.
🔸By contributor @bonzerbarry
— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) October 17, 2026
In a recent meeting of the 52nd Organisation of Islamic Cooperation Council of Foreign Ministers in Baghdad, Iran expressed its support for a “political process” to resolve the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Ansar Allah. Iranian representative Araghchi mentioned that Iran had proposed “a concrete seven-day plan” through Qatar to reopen the Strait and restore normal maritime passage. He emphasized that the next steps depend on the United States.
On a related note, former President Trump stated to Newsmax, “Now, we’re looking at Pickaxe Mountain. We may have to go there. We’ll take a shot at that one. We’ll knock it out fast.” There are unconfirmed reports from IRIB correspondent Morteza Ghoroghi suggesting that the US requested permission from Iran to strike the Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility without retaliation, a request that Iran reportedly denied according to The Hormuz Letter. Ghoroghi further stated, “Trump’s remarks today indicate the likelihood of war within the next 24 hours.” Nevertheless, no US or Iranian officials have confirmed this information, and the anticipated strikes have not materialized.
In further developments, the IRGC Navy reported that two supertankers carrying over two million barrels of crude were struck by mines in the Strait of Hormuz. They announced, “The Strait of Hormuz is closed.” However, a CENTCOM spokesperson told Fox News that the strait “is open.” Additionally, another tanker was reportedly hit by an “unknown projectile” off the Saudi coast.
Strategist Will Schyver analyzed a recent battlefield scenario:
💥 Note that the Yemeni fighter in a suit jacket assumes a well-conceived position, with maximum cover, and fires a belt-fed machine gun into the fortification to suppress their fire. Then it cuts to him firing the RPG overhead to administer the coup de grâce.
This is real war.
— Will Schryver (@imetatronink) October 17, 2026
مقاتل يمني يكسر كل قواعد التدريب العسكري وأعرافه بطريقة استخدامه لسلاح الـRPG! https://t.co/XZdLuaKjbd
— ابو يمن 🇾🇪 (@Dis545a) October 14, 2026
Dr. Shireen Al-Adeimi, a Yemeni-American academic at Michigan State University, offers valuable insights. She spoke with Ryan Grim of Drop Site and Dr. Annelle Sheline from the Quincy Institute:
Here’s another interview where she provides context on Ansar Allah:
Now, let’s turn to conventional analysis. The Associated Press summarizes the increasing strength of the Yemeni rebels:
Over the last decade, various coalitions including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the United States, Britain, and Israel have conducted extensive airstrikes against the rebels, only to witness a strengthening of their position.
Despite having superior U.S.-supplied weaponry, the Saudis have struggled to counter recent assaults. A senior Saudi diplomat stated that Iran is fostering this escalation, indicating that the Houthis rejected a negotiation offer over the summer.
The Houthis control a vast mountainous area that allows them to disperse fighters and military equipment while posing threats to critical infrastructure, such as major oil facilities and key trade routes. They have access to an extensive arsenal of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones—many closely resembling Iranian designs—that are capable of reaching all Gulf states and even Israel. Additionally, they have displayed sophisticated anti-ship missiles and naval drones capable of attacking vessels in the Red Sea, thereby endangering vital trade routes.
A report by U.N. experts in 2024 highlighted significant military connections between the Houthis and Iran, estimating that the Houthis had expanded their ranks to approximately 350,000 fighters by 2024, a notable increase from just 30,000 in 2015 when Saudi Arabia began its intervention in Yemen’s civil war and imposed a naval blockade.
Qatar’s Al Jazeera provides an alternative viewpoint, suggesting that the so-called “Yemen’s government” (aligned with Saudi Arabia) is maintaining its “Dawn of Yemen” offensive against Ansar Allah. However, it’s essential to be cautious of such claims, which may adhere to Betteridge’s Law of Headlines.
Ongoing Houthi missile attacks, combined with the Iranian-backed group’s territorial gains around Taiz in southwestern Yemen, have disrupted key supply routes, endangering roads, ports, and airports necessary for government forces’ logistics.
These challenges threaten the success of the government’s Dawn of Yemen operation, aimed at recapturing territories held by the Houthis, including the capital city of Sanaa, seized back in 2014.
Nevertheless, government officials assert that logistical challenges will not derail their operations, insisting that their forces can navigate these difficulties.
“Despite Houthi efforts to disrupt supply lines, they have failed to stop our supplies. Therefore, military operations against the Houthis will persist,” asserted Colonel Wadah al-Dubaish, spokesperson for the government-aligned Joint Forces on Yemen’s West Coast, in remarks reported by Al Jazeera.
However, the government has suffered significant losses to the Houthis in recent months.
For more context, The New York Times provides a concise summary regarding the war’s origins:
The conflict between the Houthis and the Saudi-supported government began in 2014 when the militia took control of Sanaa. While a truce was achieved in 2022, tensions resurfaced this summer when the Houthis accused Saudi Arabia of bombing Sanaa’s airport. The ceasefire crumbled last month when Houthi forces seized control of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline, imposing a blockade on Saudi shipping.
This portrayal of the Houthis’ accusations against Saudi Arabia demonstrates the narrative control at play, akin to the UN’s condemnation of Iran for its self-defense against attacks earlier this year:
The United Nations Security Council condemned the Houthi assaults on Saudi Arabia, calling for full enforcement of a 2015 resolution that demands the group relinquish its captured territory and weaponry. Saudi officials welcomed the Council’s statement and reinforced what they termed the kingdom’s right to self-defense under international law.
Larry Johnson provides further insights regarding the evolution of Ansar Allah’s missile capabilities, noting that since around 2017, their missiles were often inaccurate. He raises questions about recent improvements that allow them to achieve pinpoint strikes over distances greater than 1,000 kilometers, even against one of the most sophisticated air-defense networks in the region:
Having spent a career focusing on targeting and military planning, I recognize that such precision at long range results from more than just a better rocket motor. A Scud-derived missile, following inertial guidance, accumulates errors throughout its journey. Transitioning from misses of several hundred meters to a mere tens of meters relies on adjustments in trajectory near the end of flight through satellite navigation updates, utilizing maneuverable reentry vehicles, or terminal seekers. Achieving this accuracy also demands highly precise target coordinates, something Ansar Allah cannot generate in the mountains of Saada.
The missile systems in question are of Iranian origin, a fact that is almost universally accepted. However, advances in Iranian precision seem to indicate significant external assistance, potentially from either Russia or China. It has been suggested that Iran’s use of GLONASS, Russia’s satellite navigation system, could enhance their missile accuracy, but this would necessitate transferring encrypted keys from Russia. Alternatively, China’s BeiDou system, which is purportedly integrated into Iran’s military infrastructure, may also be a factor in the observed accuracy improvements.
Prominent anti-war libertarians Scott Horton and Darryl Cooper provide additional perspectives:
To conclude, Trita Parsi offers viewpoints that often fall outside mainstream narratives:
As we navigate this complex geopolitical landscape, it’s crucial to stay informed and engaged with the unfolding situation. Support and follow my work at NatWilsonTurner.com.
