ATLANTA, Sept. 24, 2026
September new-vehicle sales are anticipated to conclude slightly below August levels, but they will still reflect a strong performance overall this year. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) is projected to be approximately 16.3 million, compared to last September’s 16.6 million and August’s robust 16.8 million.
Sales volume for September is expected to rise 6.5% year-over-year, though it could drop by 2.7% from August. Monthly comparisons are complicated by seasonal factors; September has 25 selling days — one more than last year but one fewer than August. Additionally, the timing of Labor Day, which fell in September this year rather than August, further affects these comparisons.
Market Insights
Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, commented, “September new-vehicle sales should hold the course we’ve seen since March, maintaining a low-mid 16 million pace. Strong fleet sales, wealthier consumers, and better access to credit contribute to the market’s resilience even amidst high inflation and low consumer confidence. Affluent vehicle buyers are less affected by inflation, which keeps demand steady.”
September 2026 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast
Q3 and Year-to-Date 2026 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast
General Motors is expected to lead sales in both Q3 and year-to-date despite a decline in market share compared to last year. Toyota is projected to show growth in Q3, narrowing the gap with GM, aided by increased market share amid ongoing supply chain challenges. Hyundai Motor Group is also expected to have a strong quarter, outpacing Ford.
Q3 2026 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast
Chesbrough noted, “The market narrative increasingly leans towards Asian automakers, who are expected to command over half of U.S. new-vehicle sales for the second consecutive quarter, nearing record market share. In contrast, the traditional Detroit 3 are projected to slip to just above 36% market share, the lowest on record, as consumers gravitate towards hybrids and passenger cars where Asian manufacturers excel.”
Full-Year 2026 Sales Forecasts
Cox Automotive has upgraded its full-year 2026 new-vehicle sales forecast to 16.1 million units from 15.8 million. This adjustment reflects the market’s resilience in the face of higher fuel costs, rising interest rates, and an uncertain economic climate. Strong summer sales and better credit access prompted this revision.
The retail sales estimate has been raised to 13.1 million units, while fleet sales are expected to hit 3 million units. Despite pressure on leasing from the end of the federal EV tax credit, lease volume is forecasted at 3 million units, with lease penetration lowered to 23%.
In the used-vehicle sector, Cox Automotive anticipates 20.5 million used retail sales and 38.5 million total used-vehicle sales for 2026, with pre-owned sales at 2.6 million units. While the forecast has been raised, total used-vehicle sales are still expected to finish slightly below 2025 levels.
Jeremy Robb, chief economist at Cox Automotive, emphasized, “The most significant takeaway is our increased confidence in demand. The market has consistently exceeded expectations despite challenges, leading to an improved sales forecast.”
Media Contacts
Mark Schirmer
734 883 6346
mark.schirmer@coxautoinc.com
Dara Hailes
470 658 0656
dara.hailes@coxautoinc.com
