Overview of Mexican Merchandise Exports to Canada
Growth Metrics
- In the first half of 2026, Mexican merchandise exports to Canada increased by 20.2%, reaching US$12.258 billion, up from US$10.200 billion in the same timeframe of 2025.
- Economic shifts due to a trade conflict between the U.S. and Canada have disrupted traditional purchasing patterns, providing opportunities for Mexican suppliers.
Comparative Growth with the U.S.
- While the U.S. remains Canada’s main supplier, its growth has stagnated, with exports rising only 1.9% from US$172.617 billion to US$175.826 billion in the same period.
- Despite U.S. sales to Canada being over 14 times larger than Mexico’s, Mexican exports grew at a rate over ten times faster.
Factors Influencing Export Growth
Trade Relations
- Ongoing diplomatic tensions, particularly since the return of President Trump, have affected U.S.-Canada trade relations.
- Canada responded to U.S. tariff policies with retaliatory tariffs on various U.S. goods while excluding Mexican products, allowing Mexican exports to gain traction.
Shifts in Procurement
- Canadian imports from the U.S. fell by 3%, while imports from Mexico rose by 19.6% in 2025.
Bilateral Trade Dynamics
Tariff Measures
- Under Prime Minister Mark Carney, Canada introduced further tariffs on U.S. goods in July 2026, escalating trade tensions.
- Retaliatory tariffs of 15% to 50% on US imports are to take effect in September 2026, benefiting Mexican manufacturers who face no similar tariffs.
Long-Term Export Trends
Steady Growth Before Pandemic
- Exports from Mexico to Canada grew consistently from US$14.080 billion in 2018 to a pre-pandemic peak of US$18.906 billion in 2024.
- The automotive sector showed substantial growth, now accounting for 57% of total exports to Canada.
Sector-Specific Insights for H1 2026
| Category/Product Group | H1 2026 Exports (US$) | YoY Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Vehicles, Tractors & Auto Parts | US$6.9828 billion | +41.9% |
| Electrical Machinery & Equipment | US$1.0340 billion | +16.3% |
| Precious Metals & Stones | US$434.0 million | +37.9% |
| Furniture | US$312.0 million | +13.6% |
| Plastics & Plastic Articles | US$109.0 million | +44.5% |
Noteworthy Declines:
- Mechanical Machinery: -31.9%
- Pharmaceutical Products: -53.9%
- Optical & Medical Instruments: -70.4%
Challenges for Mexican Manufacturers
Despite growth in Canada, Mexican automotive manufacturers face challenges due to U.S. tariffs on vehicles. The pressure from these tariffs has affected overall exports to the U.S., even as Canadian demand rises.
Broader Context
The OECD reports good performance in North American trade relative to the G20 economies. While Canadian imports slowed, exports grew, indicating a shifting trade environment. The ongoing trade conflict continues to provide Mexico with unique opportunities to capture market shares in Canada.
