Here are some key indicators from the economic landscape:
- US jobless claims data suggest a stronger labor market | Reuters
- US Consumer Comfort Index reaches its highest point since 2007 | Bloomberg
- French industrial production remains stable, exceeding expectations | MarketWatch
- UK industrial output sees its first increase in three months | RTT
- Spain experiences accelerated growth in industrial output | RTT
- Emerging market stocks appear more resilient to a potential Fed interest rate hike | Reuters
Yesterday, Morningstar posed a question about whether emerging markets might be a worthwhile investment. Several fund managers are opting to overweight this segment of the global equity market. For months, some strategists have been advocating for emerging markets (EM) as a value investment, though results thus far have been underwhelming. However, the recent uptick in popular ETFs within this space suggests that a brighter outlook could be on the horizon in the coming months or even years.
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● Fed minutes indicate that a summer interest rate hike is unlikely | Fortune
● Eurozone retail sales fell in February after four consecutive monthly increases | WSJ
● German industrial output and exports recover in February | RTT
● China is projected to see its Q1 economic growth at a six-year low of 7% | Reuters
● Bank of France raises its Q1 growth estimate to 0.4% | RTT
● Switzerland becomes the first country to issue 10-year debt at a negative yield | Telegraph
Last week, Warren Buffett stated that US stocks may be “slightly on the high side” but have not entered bubble territory. However, the Oracle of Omaha also noted that “it’s always easier to identify [bubbles] in hindsight.” Should we avoid trying to assess bubble risks in real time? Perhaps, but this approach has its complexities. The definitions and methods used to look for bubbles are crucial. If we are willing to analyze data in a relatively objective way, searching for bubbles can be beneficial. However, this process must be part of a sound and diversified risk-management strategy, within a framework that aspires for objectivity. Though challenging, it’s worthwhile to pursue this inquiry as an intellectual exercise.
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● US job openings rise to a 14-year high | CNBC
● US consumer credit increases more than anticipated in February | RTT
● PMI reports indicate a global economic growth acceleration to a six-month high | Markit
● Eurozone retail PMI rises to a four-month peak | Markit
● Eurozone February retail sales increase as expected compared to the previous year | Reuters
● PMI shows muted growth in emerging markets | Markit
● German factory orders decline for the second consecutive month | Bloomberg
The US labor market experienced a noticeable slowdown in March. However, recent economic data suggests that this dip might be temporary and not indicative of sustained issues. Updates from Monday highlight an economy that continues to expand at a healthy rate in the services sector, including job growth.
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● Fed’s labor markets conditions index slowed down in February | MarketWatch
● The Conference Board’s US Employment Trends Index saw a slight decrease in March | CB
● Growth in the US services sector slowed slightly, but executives remain optimistic | Biz Journals
● PMI reveals the sharpest increase in US services sector output since August 2014 | Markit
● PMI shows the Eurozone experienced improved growth in March | Markit
Disappointing news regarding US payrolls in March — the smallest increase in over a year — has sparked renewed debate about the economy’s overall strength. However, it may be hasty to draw conclusions based solely on this monthly data, particularly as year-over-year growth in payrolls remains strong, as I mentioned last week. Nevertheless, both the general public and the Federal Reserve will likely be more sensitive to incoming data as they seek insights into what the latest payroll figures imply for short-term projections. A noteworthy market-based measure to monitor is the term-premium adjusted real yield for the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note.
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● Five reasons why the U.S. economy isn’t igniting | DMN
● Trends in U.S. corporate profits are concerning | The Economist
● Asian markets rise after poor U.S. jobs data; the dollar faces pressure | Reuters
● Oil prices rebound as Iranian exports are expected to take months to recover | MarketWatch
● Japan’s Leading Index declines less than anticipated in February | RTT
● Beat the Crowd: How You Can Out-Invest the Herd by Thinking Differently
By Kenneth L. Fisher with Elisabeth Dellinger
Summary via publisher (Wiley)
“Beat the Crowd” serves as a comprehensive guide for contrarian investors, explaining how a true contrarian thinks and acts, illuminating why this approach frequently proves successful. In this bestselling book, author Ken Fisher demystifies common misconceptions and presents a straightforward view of timeless market principles. He illustrates how contrarians can navigate headlines that skew perception and highlights which trends to disregard. This book provides insightful strategies for thinking differently and achieving investment success more often than not.
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In this updated version, all critical information is preserved, ensuring clarity and a smoother flow. Each economic update is organized for easier reading, with relevant links included. The data showcases the current economic landscape effectively while maintaining the original article’s format.
