Tomorrow’s report on US industrial production is anticipated to show a modest increase of 0.1% for March compared to the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s median forecast derived from various econometric models. This estimate aligns with a similar 0.1% increase noted in the previous month. However, recent economist surveys indicate expectations for a significant slowdown, with some consensus forecasts predicting a decline in output for March.
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US retail sales experienced a 0.9% increase in March, marking the first monthly rise since last November, as reported by the Census Bureau reports. This uptick is not only the strongest in a year but also indicates a reversal from three consecutive monthly declines leading up to February. While these figures suggest a possible resurgence in consumer spending, there is still uncertainty until more data becomes available. The year-over-year comparison, although positive, continues to show a downward trend.
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Is the US economy emerging from its first-quarter stagnation? Or do the recent slowdowns indicate deeper issues on the horizon? We’ll gain clearer insights from this week’s economic reports, starting with today’s retail sales update for March. Following that, industrial production figures are due for release tomorrow, along with housing starts and jobless claims on Thursday. Meanwhile, Treasury yields remain low as the market awaits new data to re-evaluate the economic landscape and expectations regarding the Fed’s prospective interest rate adjustments.
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● Eurozone’s February industrial production surpassed expectations | Reuters
● Eurozone banks report increased lending due to QE and low interest rates | WSJ
● UK consumer prices remained unchanged in March | MarketWatch
● UK house price inflation slows for the fifth consecutive month | RTT
● Greece denies accusations of default | BBC
● Oil prices rise above $58 following a report on U.S. shale output and Middle Eastern developments | Reuters
● Forecast: India to grow at 8-10% for the next 15 years | Times of India
● Gazprom warns Europe about rising natural gas prices | NY Times
US retail sales are projected to increase by 0.3% according to tomorrow’s March report, based on the median forecast provided by The Capital Spectator, which is derived from various econometric models. This figure signifies a moderate recovery following the previous month’s 0.6% drop. In contrast, recent economist surveys suggest an expectation of a stronger rebound in retail spending for March.
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Much of the favorable analysis surrounding so-called smart beta ETFs centers on individual funds and how they provide advantages over traditional funds that weight securities based on market capitalization—referred to as classic beta. But what happens when we create portfolios using smart beta products? How do these compare to equivalent classic beta asset allocations? Research in this area is challenging to conduct since the actual performance records for smart beta (SB) are still quite short. However, one group of equity SB funds has been operational for over five years, offering insight into how these innovative ETFs influence portfolio design. As we will examine, the results do not significantly differ from those achieved with conventional beta products.
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● The Fed Can Afford to be Patient Regarding Interest Rate Increases | Alan Blinder (WSJ)
● A $9 Trillion Short Presents Potential for a Stronger Dollar | Bloomberg
● China’s growth anticipated to slow to 6.9% in Q1: AFP survey | CNA
● World Bank Projects Slower Growth For Developing East Asia | RTT
● China’s March exports experience a shocking 15% decline year-over-year | Reuters
● BOJ Governor Kuroda: Japan’s Economy to Maintain Moderate Recovery | MNI
● Oil prices rise above $59 as traders cover short positions | Reuters
● Italy’s February Industrial Output Grew by 0.6% | Istat
● Generation Jobless?: Turning the youth unemployment crisis into opportunity
By Peter Vogel
Summary via publisher (Palgrave Macmillan)
Generation Jobless? uniquely analyzes both the characteristics of today’s youth and the root causes of the youth unemployment crisis. The book adopts a global, multi-stakeholder perspective, highlighting effective solutions to address the crisis. Featuring insights from business leaders, policymakers, educators, entrepreneurs, and the next generation, it offers an optimistic and constructive view of change by encouraging each group to contribute to the solution, particularly urging youth to adopt a proactive stance as job creators rather than mere job seekers.
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A week has elapsed since we discovered a notable downturn in March’s US payroll growth, reflecting a dramatic slowdown in comparison to previous months. While the annual pace remains strong, some commentators have prematurely dubbed this a harbinger of economic doom. However, recent incoming data challenges this narrative. Analyzing key reports since Monday indicates that the weak performance in the labor market for March represents merely a temporary setback, not a concerning precursor of more significant issues. Overall, the prognosis for moderate economic growth remains an attractive forecast until the data suggests otherwise.
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In early April, the outlook for the US economy showed signs of improvement, indicating continued growth in the near term. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed at slightly above +8.0% yesterday (April 9), marking the highest level since late February. These moderately positive indexes suggest that the risk associated with the business cycle remains low. A reading below 0% on the MMRI would signal heightened recession risk while readings exceeding 0% imply forthcoming economic expansion.
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This rewrite maintains the original structure while enhancing readability and coherence. Each section delivers clear insights into the current economic conditions in the US and offers concise, informative updates.
