● US Housing Starts Exceeded Expectations in February | Bloomberg
● US Industrial Production Declined 0.5% in February | WSJ
● Core Inflation in the US Shows Highest 12-Month Growth in Nearly Three Years | LA Times
● Federal Reserve Lowers Rate-Rise Projections Due to Global Uncertainties | Bloomberg
● Atlanta Fed Maintains Q1 GDP Estimate at +1.9% | Atlanta Fed
This morning’s updates from the US on housing construction and industrial output—the final numbers before today’s Federal Reserve monetary announcement—presented mixed signals, though with a slightly positive outlook. The key takeaway is that while industrial production is experiencing a contraction overall, manufacturing is growing at a quicker pace. On the housing side, new residential construction is on a steady upward trajectory. These insights generally support the expectation of moderate economic growth in the near future.
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If there are concerns about rising interest rates, they certainly aren’t reflected in utility stocks. This sector, sensitive to interest rates, is currently leading among US equities, as indicated by various ETF proxies.
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● US Retail Sales in February Raise Concerns About Economic Growth | NY Times
● NY Fed Factory Index Records First Positive Reading in Eight Months | MarketWatch
● US Wholesale Inventories Unexpectedly Increased by 0.3% in January | RTT
● US Home Builder Sentiment Remains Stable in March | CNBC
● US Redbook Year-over-Year Retail Sales Index Shows Little Change in Second Week of March | TE
● China’s Li Guarantees More Reforms, Seeks Growth Reassurance | WaPo
● Fed to Indicate That the Worst Is Over, With Rate Hikes Ahead | Bloomberg
According to forecasts from The Capital Spectator, US industrial production is expected to show no change in the upcoming February report compared to the previous month. This prediction indicates a significant slowdown from last month’s robust growth.
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Housing starts are projected to reach 1.126 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the upcoming February report, reflecting a modest increase from the previous month’s construction activity, as indicated by The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast.
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Retail sales fell by 0.1% in February, with a prior gain for January revised to a 0.4% decline, according to the most recent update from the Census Bureau. While this dip may raise red flags about consumer spending, a look at the year-over-year trend suggests a more promising outlook.
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Investing in stocks for the long term is undoubtedly appealing. Historical trends indicate that by ignoring short-term fluctuations and concentrating on the next decade or two, investors can achieve commendable returns—often significantly better than expected. The primary risk lies in faltering midway through a period of underperformance.
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● Mobius Believes Emerging Markets are at a Turning Point Following Recent Downturn | Bloomberg
● Did China’s Economic Boom Negatively Impact the US Economy? | TheMoneyIllusion
● Europe May Still be Trapped in a Liquidity Crisis | BI
● Blackrock: Markets Face Obstacles from Central Banks | CNBC
● Is the Era of Free Trade Coming to an End? | NY Times
● Eurozone Industrial Production Increased by 2.1% Due to a Surge in Ireland | BBC
● Labor Protests Rise in China as the Economy Slows, Causing Concerns Among Leaders | NY Times
US retail sales are anticipated to show no change in the upcoming February report compared to January, based on predictions from The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast. This forecast reflects a modest decrease from last month’s growth.
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In summary, various economic indicators from the US present a mixed yet cautiously optimistic outlook. While challenges exist, especially in retail and industrial sectors, housing starts are on the rise, suggesting a potential path toward sustainable growth. Investors should remain informed and consider both short-term fluctuations and long-term trends as they navigate the market landscape.
