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<p><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">House passes tax bill–focus now turns to Senate:</span></strong> <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-tax/tax-overhaul-drama-moves-to-u-s-senate-as-house-approves-its-bill-idUSKBN1DG1G3?il=0">Reuters</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">World’s largest sovereign wealth fund considers selling oil stocks:</span></strong> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-17/norway-idea-to-exit-oil-stocks-is-shot-heard-around-the-world">Bloomberg</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">US industrial output surges in October after hurricane disruptions fade:</span></strong> <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-unemployment/u-s-industrial-output-surges-as-hurricane-related-disruptions-fade-idUSKBN1DG1WA">Reuters</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">US jobless claims rise to 6-week high:</span></strong> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-16/u-s-jobless-claims-at-six-week-high-amid-holiday-volatility">Bloomberg</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">Confidence among US home builders rises to 7-month high in November:</span></strong> <a href="https://www.housingwire.com/articles/41834-builder-confidence-climbs-to-highest-level-in-months">Housing Wire</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">Philly Fed manufacturing index falls in November but still signaling growth:</span></strong> <a href="http://www.rttnews.com/2836998/philly-fed-index-indicates-slower-regional-manufacturing-growth-in-november.aspx?type=useco">RTT</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">NASA tool predicts which coastal cities will be flooded due to global warming:</span></strong> <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/16/world/nasa-sea-level-rise-forecast/index.html">CNN</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">Yale’s David Swensen says low stock market volatility is “profoundly troubling”:</span></strong> <a href="https://www.cfr.org/event/conversation-david-swensen">CFR</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">Does AI’s use in financial markets raise systemic risk?</span></strong> <a href="http://voxeu.org/article/artificial-intelligence-and-stability-markets">VoxEU</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">2-Year Treasury yield hits a nine-year high — 1.72%:</span></strong> <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-bonds/treasuries-u-s-two-year-yield-hit-9-year-peak-curve-flattest-in-10-years-idUSL1N1NM1ZD">Reuters</a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/2yr.treas_.17nov2017.png"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-9526" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/2yr.treas_.17nov2017.png" alt="" width="700" height="312" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-17-november-2017/" title="5:18 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2017-11-17T05:18:08-05:00">November 17, 2017</time></a>
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<p>The Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to increase interest rates at next month’s FOMC meeting. According to the futures market for Fed funds, another tightening is almost certain. However, the recent rebound in the inflation-adjusted monetary base indicates there may still be room for discussion.<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/real-m0-money-supplys-annual-trend-is-positive-for-third-month/#more-9521" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/real-m0-money-supplys-annual-trend-is-positive-for-third-month/" title="6:55 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2017-11-16T06:55:42-05:00">November 16, 2017</time></a>
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<p><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">Johnson is the first GOP senator to oppose tax-reform bill:</span></strong> <a href="http://thehill.com/policy/finance/360601-johnson-says-he-will-not-support-tax-reform-bill">Politico</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">US retail sales increased by a moderate 4.6% year-over-year through October:</span></strong> <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2017/11/15/u-s-retail-sales-rose-second-month-led-cars-clothes/865626001/">USA Today</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">US core inflation rose 1.8% year-over-year in October, marking the first acceleration since January:</span></strong> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-15/u-s-core-inflation-gauge-picks-up-for-first-time-since-january">Bloomberg</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">NY Fed Manufacturing Index fell, yet still indicates healthy growth:</span></strong> <a href="http://www.rttnews.com/2836536/new-york-manufacturing-index-drops-more-than-expected.aspx?type=useco">RTT</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">Year-ahead business inflation expectations rose slightly to 2.0%:</span></strong> <a href="https://www.frbatlanta.org/research/inflationproject/bie/">Atlanta Fed</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">US business inventories remained unchanged in September:</span></strong> <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-inventories/u-s-business-inventories-unchanged-in-september-idUSKBN1DF26C?il=0">Reuters</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">A recent handshake suggests warming relations between China and Japan:</span></strong> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/16/world/asia/seeing-us-in-retreat-under-trump-japan-and-china-move-to-mend-ties.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fworld&action=click&contentCollection=world&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=5&pgtype=sectionfront">NY Times</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">Will global economic growth keep the bull market thriving?</span></strong> <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-investors-are-shrugging-off-high-valuations-in-stocks-2017-11-14">MarketWatch</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">S&P 500 drops to a three-week low:</span></strong> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-14/u-s-equity-declines-to-spread-to-asia-oil-drops-markets-wrap">Bloomberg</a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/spx.16nov2017.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-9520" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/spx.16nov2017.png" alt="" width="700" height="312" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-16-november-2017/" title="5:23 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2017-11-16T05:23:38-05:00">November 16, 2017</time></a>
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<p>This year, the US stock market has defied expectations by showing remarkable strength while maintaining a calm demeanor, as evidenced by various risk metrics. It remains uncertain whether this is due to a failure of these risk assessments, a case of irrational exuberance, or a combination of both.<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-risk-of-estimating-risk/#more-9511" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-risk-of-estimating-risk/" title="7:20 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2017-11-15T07:20:38-05:00">November 15, 2017</time></a>
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<p><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">Zimbabwe’s military appears to have taken control of the government:</span></strong> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/14/world/africa/zimbabwe-mugabe-mnangagwa-chiwenga.html">NY Times</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">China to send an envoy to North Korea:</span></strong> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-15/china-sending-envoy-to-north-korea-after-trump-s-beijing-visit">Bloomberg</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">Report reveals that the wealthiest 1% own half of the world's wealth:</span></strong> <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/11/14/richest-1-now-owns-half-worlds-wealth/862916001/">USA Today</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">India is projected to lead global energy demand growth through 2040:</span></strong> <a href="http://www.iea.org/weo2017/">IEA</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">Senate committee reviews Trump's authority to use nuclear weapons:</span></strong> <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/US/senate-considers-trumps-authority-launch-nuclear-weapons/story?id=51139646">ABC</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">US wholesale inflation for October posts its largest increase in over five years:</span></strong> <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-inflation/services-boost-u-s-producer-prices-underlying-inflation-firming-idUSKBN1DE1TJ">Reuters</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">US small business optimism is near record highs in October:</span></strong> <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/08/a-year-later-small-businesses-report-optimism-mixed-reviews-on-trump.html">CNBC</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">Japan’s Q3 GDP grows by 0.3%—the longest period of growth since 2001:</span></strong> <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Economy/Japan-s-GDP-growth-hits-1.4-on-July-Sept-performance">Nikkei</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">The US labor force participation rate has been declining for 17 years:</span></strong> <a href="https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/publications/economic-insights">Philly Fed</a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/labor.force_.15nov2017.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-9510" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/labor.force_.15nov2017.png" alt="" width="643" height="664" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-15-november-2017/" title="5:31 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2017-11-15T05:31:11-05:00">November 15, 2017</time></a>
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<p>The Federal Reserve has made efforts to boost the inflation trend over the past few years but has had limited success. Key indicators of price trends continue to fall below the central bank's 2.0% target, and recent data suggests that this situation may not change in the near future. However, there are signs that inflation may be stabilizing, possibly preparing to rise gradually in the coming year.<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/willl-us-inflation-tick-higher-in-2018/#more-9505" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/willl-us-inflation-tick-higher-in-2018/" title="6:58 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2017-11-14T06:58:59-05:00">November 14, 2017</time></a>
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<p><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">Republicans are mobilizing to prevent Moore from becoming a Senator:</span></strong> <a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/360216-gop-mobilizes-against-moore">The Hill</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">Trump claims progress in altering rules to reduce the US trade deficit:</span></strong> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-14/trump-declares-trade-rules-have-changed-as-asia-trip-concludes">Bloomberg</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">Lebanon’s political crisis threatens to exacerbate regional tensions:</span></strong> <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/11/14/lebanons-crisis-sets-the-stage-for-a-middle-east-calamity/?utm_term=.6c0decc78644">WaPo</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">Economists express optimism about US growth outlook in the latest Philly Fed survey:</span></strong> <a href="https://mninews.marketnews.com/content/repeat-phil-fed-survey-economists-more-optimistic-growth">MNI</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">China’s industrial output and retail sales growth have slowed in October:</span></strong> <a href="http://www.rttnews.com/2835685/china-s-industrial-output-retail-sales-growth-slows.aspx?type=aeco">RTT</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">China leads the world with the fastest supercomputers:</span></strong> <a href="https://www.cnet.com/news/china-surpasses-us-in-supercomputer-usage-on-top-500-list/">CNET</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">Low stock-market volatility might be normal after all:</span></strong> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-13/maybe-strangely-low-stock-volatility-isn-t-so-strange-after-all">Bloomberg</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">US economy is nearly at full employment, suggesting more rate hikes:</span></strong> <a href="http://economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/2017/11/taking-stock.html">Fed Watch</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">US inflation outlook for the coming year has ticked up to 2.6%, a six-month high:</span></strong> <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2017/an171113">NY Fed</a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/inflation.14oct2017.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-9504" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/inflation.14oct2017.png" alt="" width="745" height="545" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-14-november-2017/" title="5:30 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2017-11-14T05:30:09-05:00">November 14, 2017</time></a>
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<p><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">Real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the US surged last week, marking the strongest gain among major asset classes:</span></strong> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-october-2017-performance-review/">Capital Spectator</a>, based on a set of exchange-traded products. This rise signifies the second consecutive weekly increase for securitized real estate.<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-reits-rise-for-a-second-week/#more-9499" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-reits-rise-for-a-second-week/" title="6:23 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2017-11-13T06:23:56-05:00">November 13, 2017</time></a>
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<p><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">Iran-Iraq earthquake claims hundreds of lives:</span></strong> <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2017/11/12/magnitude-7-2-earthquake-jolts-iran-iraq-border-area/856705001/">USA Today</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">Trump meets with Philippine president, describes their relationship as “great”:</span></strong> <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41964930">BBC</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">GOP leaders anticipate that the House will pass the tax-reform bill this week:</span></strong> <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/12/republicans-tax-bill-house-244821">Politico</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">US Consumer Sentiment retreats in November after reaching a 13-year high:</span></strong> <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/10/consumer-sentiment-hits-97-point-8-in-november-vs-100-point-9-estimate.html">CNBC</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">What is causing the flattening of the US Treasury yield curve?</span></strong> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-13/the-u-s-yield-curve-is-flattening-and-here-s-why-it-matters">Bloomberg</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">Director of research at SF Fed: wage growth is above trend and accelerating:</span></strong> <a href="https://mninews.marketnews.com/content/repeatmni-interviewfed-econ-wage-growth-already-above-trend">MNI</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">Eurozone is on track for strong growth and low inflation:</span></strong> <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-13/from-lost-decade-to-golden-years-euro-economy-picks-up-the-pace">Bloomberg</a><br/><strong><span style="color: #0000ff;">US Q4 GDP nowcast remains strong at +3.85%:</span></strong> <a href="https://now-casting.com/home">Now-casting.com</a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/gdp.13nov2017.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-9498" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/gdp.13nov2017.png" alt="" width="1200" height="800" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-13-november-2017/" title="5:28 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2017-11-13T05:28:47-05:00">November 13, 2017</time></a>
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<p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/006265120X/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=006265120X&linkCode=as2&tag=thecapitalspe-20&linkId=e5689b26fdee0e6a34186d1503cde6b1" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img decoding="async" class="alignleft" src="https://ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&MarketPlace=US&ASIN=006265120X&ServiceVersion=20070822&ID=AsinImage&WS=1&Format=_SL250_&tag=thecapitalspe-20" border="0"/></a><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" src="https://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=thecapitalspe-20&l=am2&o=1&a=006265120X" alt="" width="1" height="1" border="0"/>● <a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/006265120X/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=006265120X&linkCode=as2&tag=thecapitalspe-20&linkId=3882f3641d6d6629825536c3e3d8a912" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dollars and Sense: How We Misthink Money and How to Spend Smarter</a><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" src="https://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=thecapitalspe-20&l=am2&o=1&a=006265120X" alt="" width="1" height="1" border="0"/><br/>By Dan Ariely and Jeff Kreisler<br/><strong><a href="https://www.harpercollins.com/9780062651204/dollars-and-sense">Summary</a> via publisher (HarperCollins)</strong><br/>We often perceive money merely in terms of numbers and values. However, our emotional responses play a significant role in our financial decisions, frequently leading us to make poor choices when trying to save and spend responsibly. In **Dollars and Sense**, acclaimed author and behavioral economist Dan Ariely collaborates with financial humorist Jeff Kreisler to challenge fundamental beliefs about our relationship with money, providing insights on how to overcome detrimental instincts for making better financial choices.<br/><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-11-november-2017/#more-9495" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-11-november-2017/" title="6:44 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2017-11-11T06:44:26-05:00">November 11, 2017</time></a>
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