An unexpected win for Democrats in Alabama’s Senate race: The Hill
Federal Reserve poised to increase interest rates today: Reuters
Vote on the final GOP tax bill anticipated next week: LA Times
US Secretary of State proposes direct talks with North Korea, without preconditions: Reuters
UK seeing job losses at the fastest rate in two years: Bloomberg
Italy experiencing a resurgence in industrial output: Bloomberg
Pension liabilities for US states are on the rise: Fitch Ratings
US producer prices surged in November, indicating an uptick in inflation: Reuters
If Trump dismisses Mueller, a constitutional crisis may ensue: American Prospect
Nearly half of small businesses in the US expect an improved economy in November: Haver
As the year draws to a close, we find ourselves immersed in a wave of new investment outlooks for 2018. While the typical caveats apply, there’s also a wealth of valuable insights available. Here’s a selection from recent publications that have captured our attention:
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Today’s Senate election in Alabama is under close scrutiny: AP
Putin’s tour of the Middle East highlights Russia’s regional influence: NY Times
Addressing gaps in the GOP tax plan remains a challenge: Politico
US job openings dipped in October as hiring accelerates: USA Today
US Q4 GDP growth projections show potential for acceleration: Now-casting.com
Global markets exhibited mixed performances over the week leading up to last Friday’s close. On the upside, US stocks continued their rally, posting the strongest weekly returns among the major asset classes as tracked via a selection of ETFs. Conversely, broadly defined commodities faced the largest weekly losses.
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Joint US-Japan-South Korea military exercises aim to counter North Korean threats: NY Times
Wildfires in Southern California cause extensive damage: CNN
China’s inflation rate decreased slightly in November: MNI
Bitcoin futures launch and see a steep rise: Reuters
Economists predict widespread interest rate hikes from central banks in 2018: Bloomberg
US payrolls increased by 228,000 in November, exceeding expectations: Bloomberg
US wage growth remains significantly lower than pre-2008 crisis levels: Paul Krugman
Investor sentiment is exceptionally optimistic: Heisenberg Report
By Vanessa Neumann
Review via Kirkus Reviews
This alarming survey explores how consumer spending can inadvertently support terrorist organizations and criminal enterprises, particularly drug cartels. Neumann, the president of Asymmetrica, a consulting group advising governments and businesses on dealing with illicit trade, provides insights from her own life, her consulting work, and research studies. She highlights how both leftist and rightist governments may become entrenched in corruption. The book warns of the collaborations between terrorist groups and drug cartels, emphasizing that these partnerships often exploit governmental corruption.
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In November, private payrolls in the US grew at a vigorous rate of 221,000, as reported by the US Labor Department reports. This marks the second consecutive month of over 200,000 job gains. A slight year-over-year increase indicates that the labor market may be stabilizing after a year of fluctuations.
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Implementing Momentum: What Have We Learned?
Adrienne Ross (AQR Capital Management), et al.
December 2017
This publication discusses the wealth of academic evidence and rationale behind momentum investing, while noting the lack of practical studies on managing momentum portfolios. Previous concerns about the high turnover associated with such strategies have led many to dismiss momentum investing as impractical. The authors analyze seven years of live data, demonstrating that real-world momentum portfolios can capture the momentum premium effectively, even when accounting for costs and market frictions.
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UK and EU announce a breakthrough in Brexit negotiations: Reuters
Congress approves a bill for Trump to prevent a government shutdown: Bloomberg
China’s export growth surpasses expectations in November: RTT
IMF warns that rising bank debt presents “large risks” to the Chinese economy: BBC
Jobless claims in the US decline for the third consecutive week: Reuters
Job cuts in the US increased by 30% compared to the previous year in November: CG&C
US consumer credit rose in October by the largest amount in 11 months: MarketWatch
Wildfires continue to spread across Southern California: Bloomberg
While it may not rival Bitcoin in popularity, momentum is undeniably thriving among US equity factor strategies, especially those tracked by ETFs. Stocks that demonstrate consistent and robust performance have outperformed significantly throughout the year, with the gap increasing in recent weeks.
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