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The Capital Spectator: Investing, Asset Allocation, and Economics Insights

Upcoming Meeting of Korean Leaders at the North-South Border on Friday: BBC
Chinese Geologists Indicate North Korea’s Primary Nuclear Test Site May Have Collapsed: WaPo
Chinese Air Force Conducts Military Flights Near Taiwan to Intimidate: Reuters
Conservative Supreme Court Justices Seem to Support Trump’s Travel Ban: The Hill
French President Expects Withdrawal from the Iranian Nuclear Deal: BBC
Increasing Interest Rates Create Uncertainty for Wall Street: CBS
Investors to Monitor Various Inflation Metrics in The Coming Days: Bloomberg
Examining the Rise of the 10-Year Treasury Yield to 3%: Calafia Beach Pundit
T. Rowe Price Surpasses $1 Trillion in Assets Under Management, Signaling Active Management Growth: P&I
Global Trade Volume Decreased by 0.4% in February, Marking the First Monthly Decline Since October: CPB

The 10-year Treasury rate reached 3.0% on April 24, marking the first time it has hit this milestone since 2014, according to daily statistics from Treasury.gov. While it may appear as just another statistic, this milestone is widely interpreted as a signal that the long-standing bull market in bonds may have come to an end.
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Western Allies Urge Trump to Preserve the Nuclear Agreement with Iran: Reuters
US Intelligence Keeps an Eye on Iranian Cargo Shipments Heading to Syria: CNN
A Trade War Poses Significant Risks for China’s Debt-Heavy Economy: CNBC
Federal Judge Rules that the Government Must Accept New DACA Immigration Applications: WaPo
Unification of the Koreas Remains a Distant Hope as Leaders Prepare to Meet: Reuters
US Consumer Confidence Index Shows Recovery in April Following a Decline in March: CB
New Home Sales in the US Hit a Four-Month High in March: MarketWatch
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Turns Negative for the First Time Since 2016: Bond Buyer
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index Saw a Year-Over-Year Increase of 6.3% in February: CNBC
Federal Housing Finance Agency Reports Continued Rise in US Home Prices for February: HW
Corporate Bonds with the Lowest Investment-Grade Ratings Appear Vulnerable: Bloomberg
10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 3.0% for the First Time Since 2014: CNN Money

The US economy is projected to show a reduction in growth in the forthcoming “advance” GDP report for the first quarter, scheduled for release at the end of this week (Apr. 27), based on estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. This forecast suggests a continuation of a slowdown in quarterly growth for the third consecutive year.
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Iran Issues Warning as French President Macron Visits Trump: WaPo
Senate Committee Endorses Pompeo for Secretary of State: The Hill
Will a 3% Yield on the 10-Year Treasury Change the Investment Landscape? Bloomberg
Brent Oil Surpasses $75 for the First Time Since 2014: MarketWatch
US Existing Home Sales Exceed Expectations in March: AP
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Indicates US Growth Moderated in March: Chicago Fed
Eurozone PMI Shows Business Activity Continued to Increase at a Steady Pace in April: IHS Markit
Survey Data Indicates Solid Private Sector Output in April: IHS Markit

Commodities broadly defined had the most significant growth last week among major asset classes, as indicated by a range of exchange-traded products. This gain marks the second consecutive week in which raw materials prices have led performance.
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Korean Peace Talks Present New Challenges for the Trump Administration: The Hill
Trump Incorrectly Claimed North Korea Would Denuclearize: CNBC
Russia and Ukraine Dominate the Agenda at the G7 Meeting of Foreign Ministers: Reuters
Will China be Excluded from Upcoming US-Korea Discussions? NY Times
Supreme Court to Review Challenge to Trump’s Travel Ban This Week: Reuters
Senator Booker Proposes Legislation for Government Jobs for All Who Seek Them: Vox
Rising Income Inequality in the US Linked to Gains in the Top 20% of Income Distribution: VoxEU
Approximately 80% of S&P 500 Firms Anticipate Q1 Earnings Exceeding Expectations: Reuters
Will Major Tech Companies Continue to Propel the US Equity Market? MarketWatch
Are Warning Signs Emerging in Financial Markets? The Economist
How Will the SEC’s New “Best-Interest” Standard Impact the Financial Sector? Bloomberg
Wealthy Individuals Expect and Are Prepared to Pay for a Longer Life: Bloomberg

Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence
By Ajay Agrawal and others.
Essay by the authors via Harvard Business Review
There is no shortage of opinions regarding the profound influence that artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to have on businesses in the near future. However, considerably less discourse exists on how organizations can effectively initiate their journey into AI. Our research and book simplify AI to its core economics and propose a method to embark on that initial step.
Our premise begins with a clear observation: Recent innovations in AI focus on reducing the cost of prediction. AI enhances the accuracy, speed, and affordability of predictions. You can effortlessly forecast the future (e.g., What will the weather be next week?) and even make prescient analyses of present situations (e.g., What is the English translation of this Spanish website?). Prediction is fundamentally about utilizing available information to uncover insights that are currently unknown. In domains where vast amounts of information exist and need to be processed, prediction shines—and now machines can excel at it.
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The looming threat of a global trade war poses significant risks to the world economic outlook, warned the managing director of the International Monetary Fund recently. Following the implementation of tariffs on Chinese imports by President Trump, despite China’s reciprocation, there has been minimal change in hard economic data regarding the US macroeconomic trend.
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Trump’s Trade Policies Strain US Economic Optimism: Bloomberg
North Korea Abandons Demand for US Troop Withdrawal Ahead of Talks: Time
Cuba’s Newly Appointed President Promises to Uphold Communism: DW
IMF Cautions Against Potential Trade War Impact on Global Economy: The Hill
US Will Penalize Wells Fargo $1 Billion for Various Infractions: NY Times
US Leading Economic Index for March Indicates “Robust Economic Growth”: WSJ
Jobless Claims in the US Slightly Decrease Last Week, Approaching a 45-Year Low: MarketWatch
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Shows Continued Expansion Amid Rising Costs: Bond Buyer
Most Wealthy Investors Anticipate a US Recession Within Two Years: CNBC
Hedge Fund Assets Reach Record High: Institutional Investor
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Approaching 3.0% Again This Year: Bloomberg

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