While geopolitical risk is on the rise, current economic indicators in the US do not yet reflect this concerning trend. With most of the data for July now available, the macroeconomic landscape remains optimistic, and forecasts suggest that this positive momentum will likely continue.
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US Treasury Secretary: Turkey faces more sanctions without the release of a pastor: Bloomberg
China’s weakening currency will be a topic of discussion in trade talks with the US: CNBC
US Attorney General issues directive to hasten deportations: Reuters
China “training for strikes” on US targets, warns Pentagon report: BBC
Walmart reports its highest sales growth in a decade: CNN
Is US economic growth nearing its peak? MarketWatch
US housing starts rose slightly in July, but are down from the previous year: MW
Jobless claims fell last week and are close to post-recession lows: WSJ
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index declines in August, reaching its lowest level in 21 months: MW
Despite recent turbulence in emerging markets, analysts and Fed funds futures indicate that the Federal Reserve is set to increase interest rates in the upcoming monetary policy meeting. This outlook is consistent with recent trends in inflation-adjusted base money supply.
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Senior Chinese officials will engage in trade discussions in the US: Politico
Trump has revoked former CIA Director Brennan’s security clearance: The Hill
US retail spending increased more than anticipated in July: LA Times
Growth in US industrial output sharply slowed in July: CNBC
The NY Fed Manufacturing Index showed solid gains for August: NY Fed
Business inflation expectations have held steady at 2.1% for August: Atlanta Fed
Confidence among US builders in August dropped to its lowest level in 2018: HousingWire
US productivity surged to its highest level in over three years in Q2: MW
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is trending lower, reaching a one-month low:
A recent Forbes article cautioned that traditional asset allocation methods are facing significant challenges. Rob Isbitts, founder and chief investment officer of Sungarden Investment Research, argues that anyone who has adopted a typical asset allocation strategy since mid-2012 is likely to experience declining returns. Using a selection of BlackRock asset allocation ETFs as a basis, he asserts that conventional asset allocation strategies have “lost their effectiveness.”
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Various results emerged from the primaries for both Democrats and Republicans on Tuesday: Politico
Turkey has raised tariffs on US imports while banking authorities support the lira: Reuters
The US warns of further tariffs on Turkey if the pastor is not released: Reuters
Both Democrats and Republicans are distancing themselves from capitalism: Yahoo Finance
Are US tariffs on China part of a broader strategic agenda? SCMP
Be cautious about relying on a single indicator for factor analysis: ETF.com
The US stock market is nearing the longest bull market in history: LPL
Small business optimism in the US climbed in July to its second-highest level in 45 years: NFIB
Reports of the demise of active management have been greatly exaggerated: Barry Ritholtz
US year-on-year import prices have surged to a 6.5-year high in July: MarketWatch
Although the first official report on US GDP for the third quarter is still more than two months away, preliminary estimates suggest a modestly slower yet still robust growth rate. This analysis, based on several forecasts compiled by The Capital Spectator, raises the question of whether the escalating tensions of the trade war and Turkey’s financial crisis will negatively impact these otherwise positive projections.
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The Fed is anticipated to raise interest rates despite the economic instability stemming from Turkey: Bloomberg
European banks are under increasing strain due to Turkey’s currency crisis: Reuters
Strategists outline four potential resolutions to Turkey’s financial crisis: MarketWatch
Slower credit growth in China raises economic concerns: Bloomberg
A recent US law strengthens the government’s control over foreign business transactions: BBC
West Virginia lawmakers have voted to impeach four justices on the state’s highest court: The Hill
The Congressional Budget Office has reduced its forecast for US economic growth: CBO
The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) is approaching a one-year low as Turkey’s crisis deepens:
Last week, US investment-grade bonds managed to avoid losses, amidst a broader trend of declines across major asset classes, according to various exchange-traded products.
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### Introduction
This compilation of recent economic news reflects on various market indicators, geopolitical tensions, and updates within the financial landscape. The insights provided here serve to illuminate current trends affecting investment and policy decisions.
### Conclusion
As global markets continue to navigate through uncertainties, understanding these economic indicators is crucial for informed decisions. Keeping abreast of developments can help investors and policymakers better prepare for potential shifts in the economic landscape.
