Trump threatens new tariffs on Mexico over illegal immigration: Reuters
Will the revised NAFTA trade deal withstand new US tariffs on Mexico? CNBC
China’s manufacturing activity contracts more than anticipated in May: CNBC
N. Korea reportedly executed an envoy over the failed Trump-Kim summit: BBG
US pending home sales in April reflect a 16th consecutive month of annual decline: MW
The Fed will consider an interest rate cut if inflation subsides and global risks escalate: NY Times
US Q1 GDP growth has been slightly revised down to a robust +3.1%: CNBC
The 10-year-3-month Treasury yield curve continues to decline into negative territory:
This month has seen a resurgence of a risk-averse mindset in global markets, benefiting long-term bonds. While various sectors of the US fixed-income market have seen growth this year, the recent rise in long-term bonds is particularly notable, as highlighted by several exchange-traded funds.
China has halted US soybean imports: Bloomberg
Mueller states that charging Trump with a crime was not an option: The Hill
The US suspects Russia of conducting low-level nuclear tests: Reuters
Acting US Defense Secretary asserts Trump ‘doesn’t want a war with Iran’: CNBC
Norway reports progress in Venezuelan negotiations: Fox
The US-China trade conflict complicates Fed’s policy plans: WSJ
Considering the warnings from the bond market about the global economy: NY Times
The 10yr-3mo US yield curve continues to decline: CNBC
Current projections indicate that US economic growth will significantly slow in the second quarter compared to Q1. Although estimates suggest that the economy is likely to avoid an imminent recession, output from April to June appears to be at risk of decelerating to its weakest level in over two years.
China is preparing to use rare earths as leverage in the US-China trade dispute: Bloomberg
US National Security Adviser states Iran likely attacked tankers in the Gulf: Reuters
The ECB warns of potential asset price declines if trade tensions escalate: CNBC
Global government bond yields approach multi-year lows: WSJ
The 10yr-3mo Treasury yield-curve inversion continues: Bloomberg
US home prices experience the slowest annual growth in seven years: MW
Texas manufacturing activity showed signs of weakness in May: Houston Chronicle
US consumer expectations index rises to a six-month high in May: Bloomberg
Year-to-date performance for major asset classes has been largely favorable, with all segments of the global market reporting gains as of May 24. However, signs of pressure are beginning to emerge in the overall market rally.
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China harshly criticizes US relations with Taiwan: CNN
Trump states Japan’s military will strengthen US forces in Asia: Reuters
The political center in Europe weakens following the EU election: First Things
Iran dismisses negotiations with the US as not feasible: Reuters
The US’s 5G telecom growth faces threats from the trade war with China: WSJ
Speculation rises over who will succeed ECB chief Mario Draghi: WSJ
Senate GOP pledges to dismiss any impeachment proceedings against Trump: The Hill
The GDPNow forecast estimates US Q2 GDP growth at a sluggish 1.3%: Atlanta Fed
US core durable goods orders in April reflect the smallest annual gain in over two years:
Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it.
Mark Twain
By Richard Vague
Summary via publisher (University of Pennsylvania Press)
Financial crises recur repeatedly in post-industrial economies and have damaging effects. Drawing from extensive experience in the banking sector and a wealth of data, Richard Vague argues that these crises follow predictable patterns, making them both forecastable and avoidable.
In “A Brief History of Doom,” Vague examines significant crises over the last 200 years in the United States, Great Britain, Germany, France, Japan, and China, including the Great Depression and the economic collapse of 2008. He demonstrates that excessive private debt serves as a key indicator for predicting financial crises. Through compelling chapters, he illustrates how rapid loan growth leads to widespread overcapacity, resulting in bad loans and bank failures. This cyclical pattern is at the heart of financial crises and reveals the predictable nature of such events.
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The outlook for the Treasury market has turned bleak, as indicated by the recently inverted yield curve. This cautious perspective is further emphasized by yesterday’s notable decline in expected inflation rates, based on yield spreads between nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury rates.
