Categories Finance

The Capital Spectator: Investing, Asset Allocation, and Economic Insights

As the Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates today, a renewed wave of optimism is likely to invigorate this year’s robust bond market rally.

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Debate intensifies among Democrats over health care: NY Times
Federal Reserve poised to cut interest rates today—marking its first reduction since 2008: WSJ
US-China trade negotiations conclude in disappointment… yet again: Reuters
North Korea conducts missile tests for the second time within a week: BBC
Political tensions escalate as Congress reviews a $2.7 trillion budget agreement: Politico
Pending Home Sales Index for June shows its first annual increase in 17 months: MW
US Consumer Confidence Index rebounds in July, reaching its highest level this year: CNBC
Case-Shiller index indicates a continued slowdown in US home price growth for May: HW
US consumer spending and income both see moderate growth in June: Reuters
Annual growth rate in private employment expected to decrease to +1.7% according to today’s ADP report:

The Federal Reserve is expected to reduce interest rates tomorrow, driven largely by the anticipated low, and potentially lower, inflation rates in the coming months.

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Capital One, a significant credit card provider, faces a massive data breach: WSJ
Pound drops as Boris Johnson increases the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit: Reuters
US-China trade talks commence with minimal excitement and low expectations: SCMP
Japan’s industrial output fell more sharply than anticipated in June: Bloomberg
Economic sentiment in the Eurozone continues to decline in July: Reuters
German consumer confidence drops for the third month in a row: Reuters
Texas manufacturing shows a slightly stronger gain in July: Dallas Fed
The one-year growth rate for today’s June report on US consumer spending is anticipated to be lower:

Last week, US equities regained their strength, leading among the major asset classes, according to a range of exchange-traded funds.

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US-China trade discussions are set to resume this week: WSJ
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in the upcoming week: Reuters
Former Fed Chair Yellen advocates for a rate cut: CNBC
China cautions that violent protests in Hong Kong will not be tolerated: Bloomberg
China’s economic slowdown continues as of July: Bloomberg
Dan Coats, US Director of National Intelligence, announces his resignation: The Hill
Key indicators to monitor for predicting the next recession: NY Times
Real and nominal one-year GDP growth in the US has reached two-year lows in Q2:

Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation in the Coming Chaos
Interview with author (via Kitco News)
By James Rickards
The economy faces potential turmoil due to several monetary and policy errors committed since the 2008 recession, according to best-selling author Jim Rickards.
His recent book “Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation In The Coming Chaos” outlines how the previous economic crisis never truly ended.
“Technically, the recession concluded in June 2009 and the U.S. economy has been growing since. We are about to enter a decade of expansion, one of the longest in U.S. history, and while growth has been observed, it has also been one of the weakest expansions recorded, averaging around 2.2% over the last decade,” Rickards emphasized in an interview with Kitco News.
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According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the economy expanded at a rate of 2.1% in the second quarter. While this marks a significant slowdown from the 3.1% growth achieved in Q1, the Q2 figure has surpassed expectations.

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Persistently hitting your head against the wall may lead to enlightenment, yet when it comes to investing, the crowd seems to struggle with a recurring case of attention deficit disorder.

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Lower US growth anticipated in today’s Q2 GDP report: Reuters
European Central Bank indicates intentions for further stimulus in response to a weakening economy: WSJ
Record temperatures set across Europe as a heatwave scorches the continent: CBS
Automakers defy Trump administration and establish emissions agreement with California: NY Times
US durable goods orders rebounded in June following two months of decline: WSJ
The US trade deficit narrowed in June: MW
Jobless claims in the US dropped to a three-month low last week, indicating a healthy labor market: MW

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