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<p>Last week witnessed a resurgence in commodity prices following a series of declines, marking the strongest performance among major asset classes, as evaluated by a selection of exchange-traded funds. Foreign equities closely followed, vying for market leadership during the trading week that concluded on October 11.</p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/commodities-and-foreign-stocks-led-global-markets-last-week-2/" title="6:58 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2019-10-14T06:58:49-04:00">October 14, 2019</time></a>
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<p><span style="color: #0000ff;">Trump is anticipated to impose fresh sanctions on Turkey regarding its invasion of Syria: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-security-turkey-usa-sanctions/as-options-narrow-on-syria-trump-prepares-to-drop-sanctions-hammer-on-turkey-idUSKBN1WS0SF">Reuters</a></span><br/>
<span style="color: #0000ff;">China seeks further discussions before finalizing the latest trade agreement with the US: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-14/china-wants-more-talks-before-signing-trump-s-phase-one-deal-k1q8bxgz">BBG</a></span><br/>
<span style="color: #0000ff;">Could the recent US-China trade truce enhance global growth? Perhaps not: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/trade-uncertainty-clouds-global-growth-prospects-11570994292?mod=hp_lead_pos7">WSJ</a></span><br/>
<span style="color: #0000ff;">China's influence will be noticeable in the upcoming Q3 earnings reports: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-things-to-expect-this-earnings-season-2019-10-11?mod=home-page">MW</a></span><br/>
<span style="color: #0000ff;">Chairman of the House Intel Committee states whistleblower testimony may no longer be necessary: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/465619-schiff-whistleblower-testimony-might-not-be-necessary-anymore">The Hill</a></span><br/>
<span style="color: #0000ff;">Eurozone's industrial output saw a rebound in August: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-economy-industrialoutput/euro-zone-industrial-output-rebounds-with-capital-goods-boost-idUSKBN1WT12C">Reuters</a></span><br/>
<span style="color: #0000ff;">A Brexit agreement remains a long shot as the October 31 deadline approaches: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/14/brexit-deal-still-out-of-reach-as-uk-and-eu-enter-last-days-of-talks.html">CNBC</a></span><br/>
<span style="color: #0000ff;">China’s exports and imports dropped more than expected in September: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/14/china-economy-chinese-imports-exports-trade-data-for-september-2019.html">CNBC</a></span><br/>
<span style="color: #0000ff;">US consumer expectations for real income have reached a two-decade peak this October: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/">UoM</a></span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/real.income.14oct2019.png"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-12995" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/real.income.14oct2019.png" alt="" width="654" height="448" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-14-october-2019/" title="5:54 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2019-10-14T05:54:07-04:00">October 14, 2019</time></a>
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<p><a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0231192843/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0231192843&linkCode=as2&tag=bookscs-20&linkId=241d9f4a74a348313dc428d5b61f0a83" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><img decoding="async" class="alignleft" src="https://ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&MarketPlace=US&ASIN=0231192843&ServiceVersion=20070822&ID=AsinImage&WS=1&Format=_SL250_&tag=bookscs-20" border="0"/></a><img decoding="async" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" src="https://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=bookscs-20&l=am2&o=1&a=0231192843" alt="" width="1" height="1" border="0"/>● <a href="https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0231192843/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0231192843&linkCode=as2&tag=bookscs-20&linkId=70a59972bd0a25be2b30dc17f21fb996" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">After the Crash: Financial Crises and Regulatory Responses</a><img decoding="async" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" src="https://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=bookscs-20&l=am2&o=1&a=0231192843" alt="" width="1" height="1" border="0"/><br/>Edited by Sharyn O’Halloran and Thomas Groll<br/><strong><a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/after-the-crash/9780231192842">Summary</a> via publisher (Columbia U. Press)</strong><br/>The 2008 crash stands as the worst financial crisis and most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression. It initiated a comprehensive restructuring of the global regulatory framework, resulting in a plethora of new rules and regulations aimed at addressing the vulnerabilities within the financial system. While the global economy narrowly avoided disaster, the lingering repercussions of the crisis, such as escalating economic inequality and political polarization, continue to influence the landscape. *After the Crash* provides a nuanced analysis of the crisis and its lasting effects on the global regulatory, financial, and political arenas, offering timely discussions on crucial issues affecting our economic future.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-12-october-2019/#more-12969" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-12-october-2019/" title="6:52 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2019-10-12T06:52:02-04:00">October 12, 2019</time></a>
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<p>The US stock market has made impressive gains this year, primarily driven by the technology and real estate sectors. These two areas have remained exceptionally strong throughout 2019, as indicated by various exchange-traded funds.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/tech-and-real-estate-still-top-2019-equity-sector-returns/#more-12987" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/tech-and-real-estate-still-top-2019-equity-sector-returns/" title="7:07 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2019-10-11T07:07:14-04:00">October 11, 2019</time></a>
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<p><span style="color: #0000ff;">Turkey intensifies military operations against Syrian Kurds, entering the third day of its offensive: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-security-turkey-usa/turkey-bombards-syrian-kurdish-militia-thousands-flee-as-death-toll-mounts-idUSKBN1WQ0O2">Reuters</a></span><br/>
<span style="color: #0000ff;">Iranian tanker struck by missiles near the Saudi Arabian coast: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/11/explosion-sets-ablaze-iranian-oil-tanker-near-saudi-port-state-media.html">CNBC</a></span><br/>
<span style="color: #0000ff;">US-China trade negotiations set to continue Friday following a positive start: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-to-meet-with-china-s-top-trade-negotiator-on-friday-11570716458?mod=hp_lead_pos4">WSJ</a></span><br/>
<span style="color: #0000ff;">Brussels meetings hint at a possible UK-EU deal regarding Brexit: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50007206">BBC</a></span><br/>
<span style="color: #0000ff;">Jobless claims dropped last week, indicating ongoing growth in the US labor market: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/jobless-claims-fell-last-week-point-to-ongoing-us-labor-market-growth-idUSKBN1WQ0I3">Reuters</a></span><br/>
<span style="color: #0000ff;">The 10-year to 3-month Treasury yield curve briefly turned positive on Thursday: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-measure-of-the-yield-curve-briefly-un-inverts-for-first-time-in-79-days-2019-10-10">MW</a></span><br/>
<span style="color: #0000ff;">Low headline consumer inflation in September suggests another rate cut by the Fed: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-inflation-flat-in-september-cpi-shows-giving-fed-room-to-cut-rates-2019-10-10">MW</a></span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/cpi.11oct2019.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-12986" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/cpi.11oct2019.png" alt="" width="569" height="398" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-11-october-2019/" title="6:01 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2019-10-11T06:01:33-04:00">October 11, 2019</time></a>
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<p>In anticipation of today's report on US consumer inflation for September, the Treasury market's implied inflation forecast via 5-year maturities gently declined to 1.24% during Wednesday’s trading (as per daily data from Treasury.gov). This forecast for future pricing pressure marks the lowest level since February 2016. While these market-based estimates should be interpreted carefully, the recent decrease serves as a reminder that a downward trend remains prevalent in this economic forecast landscape.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-treasury-markets-inflation-forecast-slips-to-4-year-low/#more-12980" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-treasury-markets-inflation-forecast-slips-to-4-year-low/" title="7:16 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2019-10-10T07:16:10-04:00">October 10, 2019</time></a>
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<p><span style="color: #0000ff;">Turkey has commenced an invasion of northeastern Syria; the US states it did not authorize the assault: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49995494">BBC</a></span><br/>
<span style="color: #0000ff;">Turkey’s invasion halts the fight against ISIS: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/09/turkeys-incursion-into-syria-halts-the-fight-against-isis/">Foreign Affairs</a></span><br/>
<span style="color: #0000ff;">Top trade negotiators from the US and China are set to meet today: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china/top-level-u-s-china-trade-talks-resume-as-irritants-sour-atmosphere-idUSKBN1WP0H6">Reuters</a></span><br/>
<span style="color: #0000ff;">The US is considering a currency deal as part of the China trade discussions: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-10/u-s-weighing-currency-pact-with-china-as-part-of-partial-deal?srnd=premium-europe">Bloomberg</a></span><br/>
<span style="color: #0000ff;">Federal Reserve officials acknowledged rising recession risks at the bank's September meeting: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://thehill.com/policy/finance/465066-fed-official-saw-recession-risk-increase-notably-ahead-of-september-meeting">The Hill</a></span><br/>
<span style="color: #0000ff;">US Q3 GDP growth estimates have decreased to a weak +1.7%, according to the GDPNow model: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow">Atlanta Fed</a></span><br/>
<span style="color: #0000ff;">Declining German imports in August signal recession risks: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-economy-tradefigures/german-august-export-slump-amplifies-recession-alarm-idUSKBN1WP0LP?il=0">Reuters</a></span><br/>
<span style="color: #0000ff;">US job openings fell to a 1.5-year low in August: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/falling-u-s-job-openings-point-to-slowing-labor-market-idUSKBN1WO1VN">Reuters</a></span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/job.openings.09oct2019.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-12979" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/job.openings.09oct2019.png" alt="" width="650" height="450" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-10-october-2019/" title="5:34 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2019-10-10T05:34:43-04:00">October 10, 2019</time></a>
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<p>The forthcoming estimate of third-quarter economic growth for the US suggests it will stabilize at a modest rate, similar to Q2, according to median predictions from a revised set of nowcasts. The potential for recession remains low for the moment, but today's update also suggests that a growth rebound is unlikely in the near future.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-q3-gdp-growth-expected-to-match-q2s-modest-gain/#more-12973" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-q3-gdp-growth-expected-to-match-q2s-modest-gain/" title="7:37 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2019-10-09T07:37:06-04:00">October 9, 2019</time></a>
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<p><span style="color: #0000ff;">The White House has chosen not to cooperate with the House’s impeachment inquiry: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/state-department-directs-gordon-sondland-not-to-appear-for-house-testimony-lawyer-says-11570538414?mod=hp_lead_pos1">WSJ</a></span><br/>
<span style="color: #0000ff;">A recent poll shows that 3 out of 10 Republicans support the impeachment inquiry: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://theweek.com/speedreads/870332/brutal-new-poll-shows-3-10-republicans-support-trump-impeachment-push">The Week</a></span><br/>
<span style="color: #0000ff;">Turkey's military begins its advance into Syria: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-09/turkey-says-its-military-will-cross-syrian-border-shortly">Bloomberg</a></span><br/>
<span style="color: #0000ff;">China remains open to discussing a partial trade agreement with the US: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/09/china-still-ready-to-discuss-partial-deal-despite-tech-blacklist.html"><span style="color: #0000ff;">CNBC</span></a></span><br/>
<span style="color: #0000ff;">New IMF president states the global economy is slowing due to the US-China trade war: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/08/us/politics/trump-trade-war-imf.html">NYT</a></span><br/>
<span style="color: #0000ff;">Federal Reserve Chair Powell claims that the US expansion is “sustainable”: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-powell/feds-powell-says-u-s-expansion-is-sustainable-idUSKBN1WN26T">Reuters</a></span><br/>
<span style="color: #0000ff;">The Small Business Optimism Index in the US dropped in September but remains positive: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.nfib.com/surveys/small-business-economic-trends/">NFIB</a></span><br/>
<span style="color: #0000ff;">In September, wholesale inflation in the US fell to 1.4%, the lowest rate in nearly three years: <a style="color: #0000ff;" href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wholesale-prices-sink-in-september-ppi-shows-reaffirming-low-level-of-inflation-2019-10-08">MW</a></span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ppi.09oct2019.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-12972" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ppi.09oct2019.png" alt="" width="569" height="398" /></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-9-october-2019/" title="5:52 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2019-10-09T05:52:38-04:00">October 9, 2019</time></a>
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<p>What are your expectations for equity factor ETFs? A range of research over the years supports the idea of multi-factor exposure to enhance risk-adjusted returns for US equity allocations. Central to this recommendation is the understanding that various factors tend to exhibit low correlation with one another. For instance, value operates independently from momentum, which in turn diverges from the low-volatility factor, and so forth.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/managing-expectations-us-equity-factor-correlations-8-oct-2019/#more-12963" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/managing-expectations-us-equity-factor-correlations-8-oct-2019/" title="7:20 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2019-10-08T07:20:47-04:00">October 8, 2019</time></a>
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