The IMF forecasts a continued slowdown in China’s economy for 2020: CNBC
Weak export performance in Japan and South Korea underscores a global economic slowdown: Bloomberg
Prime Minister Johnson intends to present his Brexit deal for another vote in Parliament: WSJ
Japan’s central bank governor introduces new strategies to boost the economy: Reuters
The US Leading Economic Index suggests a slow-growth outlook: MW
Is the re-steepened US yield curve a sign of economic optimism? Perhaps not:
Recent gains in the US stock market have resulted in a minimal drawdown of just 1% for the S&P 500:
By Alberto Cairo
Review via The Economist
Cairo’s book arrives at a crucial time when charts and maps are more prevalent in both traditional and social media than ever, yet efforts to enhance the “graphicacy” of consumers remain limited. His approach starts with teaching readers how to read a chart effectively. Understanding that graphs should be read rather than just glanced at is a fundamental theme throughout the book. He discusses the essential components of a chart, including scales, legends, and data sources, before exploring various ways to construct data. Only by recognizing a well-structured chart can readers learn to detect when something is misleading.
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Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Baruch Lev (NY University) and Anup Srivastava (U. of Calgary)
August 25, 2019
The business media suggests that the traditional value investing approach—buying undervalued stocks while shorting overvalued ones—has waned in effectiveness since 2007. However, the reasons behind this purported decline remain unclear, complicating investors’ and analysts’ attempts to gauge whether value investing can regain traction. Our extensive data analysis indicates that this strategy has actually been unprofitable for nearly three decades, with only a slight revival after the dot-com crash. We identify two primary causes for the decline: (1) accounting limitations leading to the frequent misidentification of value stocks, especially glamor stocks, and (2) significant economic changes that have greatly reduced the instances of value and glamor stock reallocation, which previously bolstered the value strategy’s success. We conclude by speculating that a resurgence of value investing seems unlikely.
Turkey agrees to temporarily pause military actions in Syria: WSJ
UK Parliament is likely to reject Johnson’s new Brexit deal on Saturday: CNBC
China’s annual economic growth slows to 6.0% in Q3, marking its lowest rate in decades: CNBC
A range of financial risks stemming from climate change are emerging: SF Fed
US housing starts dropped in September after reaching a 12-year high: MW
US initial jobless claims continue to indicate growth within the labor market: CNBC
Philly Fed’s manufacturing index demonstrates modest growth for October: Philly Fed
US industrial output fell slightly over the past year, marking the first decline since 2016:
Factor investing has emerged as a prevalent strategy in the investment world over the past decade, yet many investors struggle to effectively utilize these risk factors in their portfolios. This finding comes from a recent study conducted by BlackRock, which examined 10,000 portfolios.
The House passes a widely supported resolution criticizing Trump for his actions in Syria: The Hill
The Northern Irish party has expressed skepticism regarding a potential Brexit deal: Reuters
China’s Commerce Ministry is eager to finalize a trade agreement with the US soon: Reuters
The Fed’s Beige Book indicates “slight to modest” economic growth: MW
Atlanta Fed’s business inflation outlook has dropped to a two-year low: AFed
Revised GDPNow model predicts a 1.8% growth rate for Q3 GDP, slightly below Q2: AFed
US homebuilder confidence has increased to a two-year high this October: CNBC
US retail sales experienced a decline in September, though year-over-year growth remains moderate: CNBC
The prolonged bull market in bonds continues to challenge bearish predictions, as evidenced by a series of exchange-traded funds. Strong year-to-date performance across major sectors in fixed income starkly contrasts with the expectations of analysts who foresee impending difficulties.
Warren faces scrutiny during the Democratic debate: CNBC
VP Pence and Sec. of State Pompeo visit Turkey today to advocate for a ceasefire in Syria: Fox
The US has indicted Turkey’s second-largest bank for circumventing Iran sanctions: NY Times
China criticizes a US House bill focused on Hong Kong: Reuters
Doubts persist regarding China’s commitment to purchase more US agricultural products: WSJ
Brexit discussions are stagnating due to familiar obstacles: CNBC
Positive corporate earnings help boost the US stock market to a three-week high: MW
The IMF forecasts that global growth will diminish to its weakest level since the financial crisis: BBC
The 10-year to 3-month Treasury yield curve remains positive for the third day after a series of inversions:
Every recession is unique, and the next one, whenever it occurs, will likely adhere to this pattern. As highlighted in a recent Bloomberg column, the risk factors converging to trigger the next economic downturn present an unusual mix.
Trump announces new sanctions on Turkey, urging a ceasefire in Syria: Reuters
VP Pence travels to Turkey for discussions: MW
Skepticism surrounds Trump’s trade agreement with China: The Hill
The EU’s chief negotiator suggests a Brexit deal remains achievable: BBC
The Turkish lira appreciates despite Trump’s economic sanctions on Turkey: CNBC
China’s factories experienced deeper deflation in September: Bloomberg
Germany’s investor sentiment remains subdued in October according to the ZEW survey: Bloomberg
The NY Fed Manufacturing Index shows a modest uptick in October, reflecting moderate growth compared to recent history: NY Fed
