Maria Konnikova
Review via Nature
In today’s world, the need for clear and engaging literature on rational decision-making has never been more crucial. Enter *The Biggest Bluff*, which tells the fascinating story of psychologist Maria Konnikova’s journey into the world of professional poker. Initially appearing as a light-hearted narrative of an academic’s adventurous plunge into a risky domain, the book ultimately unveils essential insights on thriving amid deception and uncertainty.
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Forecasting Macroeconomic Risk in Real Time: Great and Covid-19 Recessions
Roberto A. De Santis (European Central Bank)
July 2020
This research demonstrates that financial variables play a significant role in predicting GDP growth during major economic downturns, including the Great Recession. These insights reveal both the first and higher moments of the GDP growth distribution. Specifically, during unexpected shocks, such as the Covid-19 recession, financial indicators can provide policymakers with timely warnings regarding the crisis’s severity and the associated macroeconomic risks, which tend to increase as financial stress and corporate spreads tighten. Utilizing quantile regression and skewed t-distribution methodologies, we evaluate the forecasting efficacy of models with real-time data.
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US coronavirus cases exceed 55,000, marking a new daily record: WaPo
COVID-19 vaccine candidates are set to enter late-stage clinical trials in July: Reuters
Texas governor issues a statewide mask mandate: CNBC
US and its allies are focusing on retaliating against China for its new Hong Kong security law: NPR
The CBO forecasts a US unemployment rate to remain above 10% through 2020: WSJ
Caixin’s China General Services PMI reached a decade-high in June: MW
Eurozone Composite PMI showed a rebound for the second consecutive month in June: IHS Markit
US factory orders have rebounded in May: Reuters
The pace of US jobless claims continues to decrease but remains at an unusual high: MW
After a record loss, US payrolls showed signs of recovery in June: CNBC
The long-term risk premium projection for the Global Market Index (GMI) rose again in June, now standing at 4.6%. This annualized estimate reflects a long-run forecast relative to the “risk-free” rate, informed by a risk-centered model developed by Professor Bill Sharpe (details below).
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Daily new cases of coronavirus in the US broke records, surpassing 50,000: WSJ
Trump has changed his stance, now advocating for masks: BBC
China’s new security law for Hong Kong pushes limits on free speech: Vox
Hundreds have been arrested in Hong Kong for violating the new security law: CNBC
Russian voters approved a referendum that allows Putin to remain in power until 2036: CNN
Is the surge in US hiring during June likely to continue? AP
Two companies released promising results for experimental COVID-19 vaccines: STAT
According to Fed minutes, the economy still requires a “highly accommodative” policy: CNBC
Global manufacturing activity rebounded in June, recovering most of its preceding losses: IHS Markit
US manufacturing sector expanded in June after a significant decline: ISM
ADP reports that US companies hired nearly 2.4 million workers in June: CNBC
Emerging-market equities experienced a sharp increase in June, outperforming other major asset classes for the month. Generally, risk assets saw an upward trend, with the sole exception being a slight decline in US high-yield bonds.
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Fauci cautions that new daily COVID-19 cases in the US could soar to 100,000: BBC
Over 47,000 new cases reported on Tuesday—the highest single-day increase recorded: Reuters
Key US economic policymakers emphasize the need for additional labor market relief: WSJ
China approves an experimental COVID-19 vaccine for its military use: CNN
Protests resurfaced in Hong Kong following the imposition of the new security law by China: CNN
Manufacturing in the Eurozone showed signs of stabilization in June following a period of severe contraction: IHS Markit
US home prices continued to appreciate through April: CNBC
The Chicago PMI reported a slight rebound in June following a historic low: MW
Consumer Confidence in the US reached a three-month peak in June: MW
In 2020, rising economic and political uncertainties have driven up the value of gold, making it a highly sought-after asset. As of June 29, an ounce of gold was priced at approximately $1,781—the highest point since 2012, according to Stockcharts.com. Year-to-date, gold has appreciated by 17%, contrasting sharply with a 5.5% decline in US equities (S&P 500 Index).
Reports indicate that Trump was briefed about Russian bounties in February: NY Times
Senate Republicans are focusing on reports regarding Russian bounties: Politico
China has implemented a controversial national security law for Hong Kong: CNN
WHO chief warns that “the worst is yet to come” regarding the coronavirus pandemic: MW
COVID-19 surges in some US states threaten reopening plans elsewhere: WSJ
Fed Chairman Powell states that the US economy is facing new challenges due to COVID-19: BBG
China’s official PMI data signals economic growth accelerated in June: SCMP
The UK economy recorded a 2.2% decline in Q1—the largest drop in over 40 years: Guardian
Japan’s industrial output fell by 8.4% in May, marking the fourth consecutive decline: NHK
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index shows a rebound in manufacturing activity for June: Houston Chron
The US Pending Home Sales Index experienced a notable rebound in May: Bloomberg
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