Categories Finance

The Capital Spectator: Investing, Economics, and Smart Asset Allocation

• 2026年7月7日
• Estimated read time 10 min read
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        <p>* The House <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/21/democrats-biden-coronavirus-relief-bill-470702">is poised to pass</a> President Biden's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief bill this week.<br/>* Major <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/21/asia/myanmar-general-strike-military-warning-intl-hnk/index.html">protests</a> in Myanmar persist despite military threats.<br/>* Boeing 777s have been <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56149894">grounded</a> following an engine failure incident in Denver.<br/>* According to the latest data, global coronavirus cases <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/02/22/world/coronavirus-world-turnaround.html">peaked</a> in January.<br/>* Dr. Fauci advises that Americans might still need to wear masks in 2022 <a href="https://news.trust.org/item/20210221143523-j7r4j">following the pandemic.</a><br/>* Is the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/21/business/economy/pandemic-economic-boom.html">US economic recovery</a> set to quicken, leading to several years of robust growth?<br/>* Could rising inflation pose challenges for Wall Street? <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/21/explosive-economic-activity-will-quiet-inflation-fears-art-hogan.html">Possibly not.</a><br/>* Brent crude oil <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-22/oil-advances-as-markets-assess-texas-return-before-opec-meet?srnd=economics-vp">is rebounding</a>—Goldman Sachs predicts prices will surpass $70 per barrel.<br/>* German business sentiment <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-economy-ifo/german-business-morale-rises-thanks-to-robust-industry-idUSKBN2AM0QQ?il=0">increased</a> much more than anticipated in February.<br/>* US business activity is nearing a six-year high as indicated by <a href="https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/3047d652f486442181de65d5a64306c5">PMI survey data:</a></p>

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        By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-22-february-2021/" title="5:37 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-02-22T05:37:28-05:00">February 22, 2021</time></a>                                            </footer><!-- .entry-meta -->
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The previous week witnessed a notable decline across the board, affecting all three of our proprietary strategies. The downturn for the trading week ending on February 19 aligned closely with the benchmark, Global Beta 16 (G.B16). However, the year-to-date performance tells a different story.

Read more at The ETF Portfolio Strategist

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        By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-21-feb-2021/" title="5:23 pm" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-02-21T17:23:16-05:00">February 21, 2021</time></a>                                           </footer><!-- .entry-meta -->
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This issue covers:

• Inverse trends: as interest rates rise, (most) stock markets fall
• Portfolio strategy benchmarks suffered after two weeks of gains

US equities remain on the defensive as Treasury yields increase: While the reasons for this decline may not solely stem from rising interest rates, they certainly have an impact. Regardless of the factors, US share prices dropped by 0.7% in the week ending February 19, as reported by the Vanguard Total US Stock Market (VTI) ETF. This marked the fund’s first weekly decline in three weeks. Nevertheless, it remains close to the record high established just a week prior. With interest rates on the rise and exhibiting an increasingly positive trend, the critical question is: How much pressure can equities withstand if the reflation trade for yields continues?

Read more at The ETF Portfolio Strategist

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        By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-etf-portfolio-strategist-19-feb-2021/" title="7:18 pm" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-02-19T19:18:45-05:00">February 19, 2021</time></a>                                           </footer><!-- .entry-meta -->
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At the end of last month, I raised the question of whether this year’s impressive performance of energy stocks would be sustainable. The answer, as of February 18, is a resounding “yes.”

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        By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/energy-shares-continues-to-lead-us-equity-sector-returns-in-2021/" title="7:38 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2021-02-19T07:38:16-05:00">February 19, 2021</time></a>                                           </footer><!-- .entry-meta -->
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        <p>* Millions are <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/texas-cities-under-boil-water-orders-11613671450?mod=hp_lead_pos5">without</a> safe drinking water in Texas following the winter storm.<br/>* The Texas storm <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-18/how-texas-s-freeze-knocked-out-40-of-u-s-oil-output-quicktake">disrupted</a> 40% of US oil production.<br/>* Biden intends to inform the G7 today about collaborating on challenges presented by China <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-g7-meeting-biden/bidens-message-to-g7-munich-events-allies-should-work-together-on-china-challenge-idUSKBN2AJ11Y">throughout the day</a>.<br/>* The White House is <a href="https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-iran-nuclear-middle-east-united-nations-d261fbe927984d9328db0e0f74b62410">ready to engage</a> in discussions with Iran about returning to the 2015 nuclear agreement.<br/>* Fed governor Lael Brainard noted that climate change is <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-s-brainard-climate-change-already-affecting-economy-financial-system-11613653221">impacting</a> the economy.<br/>* Treasury Secretary Yellen <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/18/treasury-secretary-janet-yellen-makes-push-for-a-big-stimulus-sees-bigger-risk-to-not-doing-enough.html">emphasized</a> the necessity for a substantial stimulus package.<br/>* Eurozone economy has <a href="https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/7ce91c47edea474b995d9a5bb59d1182">contracted</a> for the fourth consecutive month in February.<br/>* The global chip shortage poses a threat to the manufacturing revival <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/18/business/economy/chip-shortage-semiconductors-manufacturing-biden.html>.</a><br/>* Bitcoin's market cap <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-19/bitcoin-nears-1-trillion-value-as-crypto-jump-tops-other-assets?srnd=premium">is nearing</a> $1 trillion.<br/>* Lumber prices surged, briefly <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/18/lumber-prices-top-1000-as-single-family-housing-starts-drop-12percent.html">exceeding</a> $1,000 per 1,000 board feet, setting a new record.<br/>* US jobless claims unexpectedly <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/18/us-jobless-claims-.html">increased</a> last week, reaching a one-month peak.<br/>* US housing starts <a href="https://www.crainscleveland.com/real-estate/us-housing-starts-fell-january-first-time-august">decreased</a> in January, although new building permits surged:</p>