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<p>Large-cap growth stocks have made a comeback. After being overshadowed by various forms of small-cap and value investments earlier in 2023, the large-cap growth segment is once again taking the lead in equity performance, as indicated by year-to-date returns from select ETF proxies up to the market close yesterday (April 25).</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/large-cap-growth-retakes-lead-for-equity-factor-returns-in-2023/#more-20071" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/large-cap-growth-retakes-lead-for-equity-factor-returns-in-2023/" title="7:19 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-04-26T07:19:21-04:00">April 26, 2023</time></a>
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<p>* Uncertainty <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/26/politics/kevin-mccarthy-debt-ceiling/index.html">continues</a> regarding House Speaker McCarthy’s debt-ceiling legislation<br/>* US debt default could lead to an ‘economic catastrophe’, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-default-debt-would-trigger-an-economic-catastrophe-yellen-2023-04-25/">warns</a> Treasury Secretary Yellen<br/>* First Republic Bank's shares <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/25/first-republic-falls-more-than-40percent-to-record-low-after-reporting-massive-deposit-drop.html">plummet</a> 50% as customers withdraw funds<br/>* Ongoing issues in the banking sector <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/25/the-banking-crisis-is-having-a-slow-burn-impact-on-the-economy.html">expected</a> to hinder economic growth<br/>* US consumer confidence <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/page/156/bit.ly/3L6ARjJ">dipped</a> in April, nearing recent lows<br/>* US home prices <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-composite/#overview">increased</a> in February—marking the first monthly uptick since June<br/>* The decline in US money supply deepens through April 3:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/m2.26apr2023.png"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-20068" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/m2.26apr2023.png" alt="" width="710" height="442" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-26-april-2023/#more-20067" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-26-april-2023/" title="6:29 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-04-26T06:29:38-04:00">April 26, 2023</time></a>
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<p>While many are predicting a recession these days, the initial estimate of economic activity for the first quarter (set to be released on April 27) is anticipated to show that growth remains intact.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/moderate-growth-expected-for-thursdays-us-q1-gdp-report/#more-20064" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/moderate-growth-expected-for-thursdays-us-q1-gdp-report/" title="7:18 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-04-25T07:18:28-04:00">April 25, 2023</time></a>
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<p>* GOP <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3967175-republicans-race-to-secure-support-for-debt-ceiling-package/">races</a> to gather support for this week's vote on the debt ceiling package<br/>* The commercial property sector <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/commercial-real-estate-woes-run-deeper-than-in-past-downturns-e0c1f2b3?mod=economy_lead_pos2">faces</a> challenges due to rising rates and the remote work trend<br/>* The risk of deflation is <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/24/economy/china-deflation-economy-intl-hnk">growing</a> in China<br/>* Chile <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chiles-lithium-move-further-push-142224290.html">plans to nationalize</a> its lithium industry, controlling 30% of the global supply<br/>* First Republic, a struggling regional bank, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/24/first-republic-says-deposits-tumbled-40percent-to-104point5-billion-in-1q-but-have-stabilized-since.html">reported</a> a 41% drop in deposits for Q1<br/>* “Crypto is dead in America,” <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/24/crypto-is-dead-in-america-says-tech-investor-chamath-palihapitiya.html">claims</a> a long-time bitcoin advocate<br/>* Texas factory activity <a href="https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2023/2304">remained flat</a> in April after modest growth in March<br/>* US economic activity was <a href="https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/cfnai/current-data">below trend</a> in March, but the risk of recession remains low:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/cfnai.25apr2023.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-20062" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/cfnai.25apr2023.png" alt="" width="650" height="450" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-25-april-2023/#more-20061" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-25-april-2023/" title="6:28 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-04-25T06:28:01-04:00">April 25, 2023</time></a>
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<p>Real estate investment trusts (REITs) listed in the US achieved the highest performance among the <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-march-2023-performance-review/">major asset classes</a> in last week's relatively quiet trading, as indicated by a selection of ETF proxies. This rebound is a welcome change for REITs, which have experienced a prolonged decline over the past year. However, whether this rally indicates the end of the sector's bear market remains debatable.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-reits-rebound-but-bearish-trend-still-weighs-on-sector/#more-20056" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-reits-rebound-but-bearish-trend-still-weighs-on-sector/" title="7:23 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-04-24T07:23:20-04:00">April 24, 2023</time></a>
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<p>* High-pressure <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3965651-mccarthy-faces-moment-of-truth-in-debt-limit-battle/">vote</a> on the debt ceiling this week puts House Speaker in a challenging position<br/>* Wall Street <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/24/wall-street-debt-limit-00093163">reacts</a> to the debt-limit threat<br/>* Some Congressional Democrats <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/04/24/debt-ceiling-budget-amy-klobuchar-kevin-mccarthy/11725234002/">are advocating</a> for a revival of negotiations between Biden and McCarthy on the debt ceiling<br/>* US <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-23/us-urges-s-korea-not-to-fill-china-chip-shortfall-amid-probe-ft?leadSource=uverify%20wall">requests</a> South Korea to refrain from filling the gap in China should Beijing ban chips from Micron<br/>* An increasing number of countries <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/24/economic-and-political-factors-behind-acceleration-of-de-dollarization.html">are seeking</a> to reduce reliance on the US dollar for global trade<br/>* Earnings reports from major tech firms <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/23/business/stocks-week-ahead/index.html">are under the spotlight this week</a><br/>* Hedge funds are placing a significant <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-24/hedge-funds-place-biggest-short-ever-for-benchmark-treasuries?srnd=premium&leadSource=uverify%20wall">bet</a> against Treasuries<br/>* In April, US economic activity showed improvement, according to <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/page/156/_wp_link_placeholder" data-wplink-edit="true">PMI survey data:</a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/pmi.24apr2023.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-20054" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/pmi.24apr2023.png" alt="" width="486" height="332" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-24-april-2023/#more-20053" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-24-april-2023/" title="6:33 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-04-24T06:33:25-04:00">April 24, 2023</time></a>
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<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Our-Lives-Their-Portfolios-Managers/dp/1839768983?keywords=Our+Lives+in+Their+Portfolios%3A+Why+Asset+Managers+Own+the+World&qid=1682086771&sr=8-1&linkCode=li2&tag=thecapitalspe-20&linkId=bdb9eb765cb03d3e5319a0c03f46f148&language=en_US&ref_=as_li_ss_il" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><img decoding="async" class="alignleft" src="https://ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&ASIN=1839768983&Format=_SL160_&ID=AsinImage&MarketPlace=US&ServiceVersion=20070822&WS=1&tag=thecapitalspe-20&language=en_US" border="0"/></a><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" style="border: none !important; margin: 0px !important;" src="https://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=thecapitalspe-20&language=en_US&l=li2&o=1&a=1839768983" alt="" width="1" height="1" border="0"/>● <a href="https://amzn.to/3KOEV8c">Our Lives in Their Portfolios: Why Asset Managers Own the World</a><br/>Brett Christophers<br/><strong><a href="https://www.versobooks.com/products/2985-our-lives-in-their-portfolios-why-asset-managers-own-the-world">Summary</a> via publisher (Verso)</strong><br/>In the aftermath of the global financial crisis over a decade ago, banks have taken a backseat. Our new financial rulers are asset managers, like Blackstone and BlackRock. These entities do not just own financial assets—they control crucial resources as well. In this illuminating follow-up to *Rentier Capitalism*, Brett Christophers uncovers the intricate dynamics of "asset manager society." Unlike conventional owners of infrastructure and housing, these managers prioritize swift profits over long-term stewardship.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-22-april-2023/#more-20034" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-22-april-2023/" title="2:53 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-04-22T02:53:00-04:00">April 22, 2023</time></a>
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<p>Nowcasting the business cycle is becoming increasingly complex. In spite of an overwhelming amount of data and a growing array of analytical tools, debates about the state of the US economy persist. The recent release of the Leading Economic Index (LEI) by the Conference Board suggests a recession may be on the horizon, but real-time assessments are not as straightforward as this indicator implies.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-recession-appears-imminent-but-thats-been-true-for-months/#more-20049" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-recession-appears-imminent-but-thats-been-true-for-months/" title="7:55 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-04-21T07:55:05-04:00">April 21, 2023</time></a>
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<p>* The Pentagon <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/20/us-troops-sudan-embassy-evacuation-00093038">is preparing</a> to evacuate embassy personnel in Sudan as civil unrest escalates<br/>* Eurozone economic growth has surged to an 11-month high in April according to <a href="https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/87a728e1ded34f9fbc6c885c241fff75">survey data</a><br/>* In March, US home sales <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/20/home-sales-fell-in-march-amid-volatility-in-mortgage-rates.html">declined by 2.4%</a>, marking a 22% decrease compared to last year<br/>* Large-cap stocks are at the forefront of the recent market rally <a href="https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1150912/mega-cap-stocks-are-leading-the-latest-rally-whats-ahead">in equities</a><br/>* Money market funds are offering appealing yields, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/21/business/money-market-funds.html">but they come with risks</a><br/>* US jobless claims <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2023-04-20/jobless-claims-rise-again-reach-245k-amid-softening-labor-market">inched higher,</a> signaling a softening labor market<br/>* The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index <a href="https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/04/20/philly-fed-manufacturing-index-lowest-level-since-may-2020">has dropped</a> to its lowest point since the pandemic<br/>* The US Leading Economic Index <a href="https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators">has entered deeper recession territory in March:</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/lei.21apr2023.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-20046" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/lei.21apr2023.png" alt="" width="887" height="570" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-21-april-2023/#more-20044" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-21-april-2023/" title="6:34 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-04-21T06:34:08-04:00">April 21, 2023</time></a>
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<p>House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and GOP leaders <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/19/mccarthy-unveils-debt-ceiling.html">have presented</a> a bill intended to provide a temporary solution to the looming debt-ceiling crisis. However, the road ahead is likely to be as complicated and fraught with risk as it has been in recent months.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/political-calculus-debt-ceiling-edition/#more-20043" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/political-calculus-debt-ceiling-edition/" title="7:20 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2023-04-20T07:20:58-04:00">April 20, 2023</time></a>
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