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<p>As we navigate a tumultuous year in the financial markets, U.S. equities and real estate investment trusts are facing significant selling pressure in 2025, as evidenced by a selection of ETFs through the market close on April 25. In contrast, other <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-march-2025-performance-review/">major asset classes</a> continue to report gains year-to-date.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-stocks-and-real-estate-shares-are-still-losers-in-2025/#more-23924" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-stocks-and-real-estate-shares-are-still-losers-in-2025/" title="7:19 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-04-28T07:19:10-04:00">April 28, 2025</time></a>
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<p><strong>U.S. consumer inflation expectations “remain high,” according to newly revised data from <a href="https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/">this month’s poll</a> by the University of Michigan.</strong> “Consumers are perceiving risks across various sectors of the economy, largely due to ongoing uncertainties surrounding trade policies and the potential for a resurgence of inflation.” The update indicates that consumer sentiment has declined for the fourth consecutive month, showing an 8% decrease from March.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/inf.28apr2025.png"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-23922" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/inf.28apr2025.png" alt="Consumer Inflation" width="4096" height="3268" /></a></p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-28-april-2025/#more-23921" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-28-april-2025/" title="6:30 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-04-28T06:30:48-04:00">April 28, 2025</time></a>
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<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/tax.smart_.24apr2025.png"><img decoding="async" class="wp-image-23913 alignleft" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/tax.smart_.24apr2025.png" alt="Tax Smart Donor" width="135" height="194" /></a>● <a href="https://amzn.to/44InOQX">The Tax-Smart Donor: Optimize Your Lifetime Giving Plan</a><br/>Phil DeMuth<br/><strong><a href="https://amzn.to/44ErzH3">Summary</a> via Amazon</strong><br/>Want to amplify the impact of your charitable contributions? This essential guide explains how to make the most of every dollar you donate through strategic tax planning. Instead of producing random charitable gifts, develop a deliberate lifetime giving strategy that capitalizes on tax regulations to your advantage. From fundamental techniques like bunching donations and giving appreciated stock to sophisticated methods involving charitable trusts and retirement accounts, *The Tax-Smart Donor* illustrates how to enhance your philanthropic effectiveness at any income level. Whether you’re contributing annually to your alma mater or strategizing a significant charitable legacy, this invaluable resource will empower you to create positive change while minimizing the tax burden.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-26-april-2025/#more-23884" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-26-april-2025/" title="8:02 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-04-26T08:02:52-04:00">April 26, 2025</time></a>
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<p><span style="color: #ff0000;"><a style="color: #ff0000;" href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5210267"><strong>Tariffs, Tokens, and Turmoil: The Market Fallout from Trump’s Policy Uncertainty</strong></a></span><br/>David Krause (Marquette University)<br/><strong>April 2025</strong><br/><em>This paper examines the financial repercussions of economic policy changes following President Trump’s second inauguration in January 2025. Utilizing empirical data from April 2024 to April 7, 2025, the research evaluates asset performance across U.S. equities, cryptocurrencies, gold, and bonds. The administration’s stringent trade protectionism, unclear directives on digital assets, and deregulatory stance towards artificial intelligence have led to increased market volatility, reduced investor confidence, and a shift towards defensive assets. Indexed returns demonstrate that traditional safe havens like gold have outperformed riskier assets, while the Magnificent Seven equities and cryptocurrencies faced significant declines post-inauguration. The study underscores the destabilizing effect of policy uncertainty in capital markets, raising vital concerns for investors and policymakers about the reassessment of political risk. It concludes that erratic economic governance is contributing to systemic fragility and advocates for a more consistent regulatory approach to rebuild investor trust and enhance market efficiency.</em></p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/research-review-25-april-2025-tariffs/#more-23917" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/research-review-25-april-2025-tariffs/" title="7:07 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-04-25T07:07:41-04:00">April 25, 2025</time></a>
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<p><strong>U.S. jobless claims <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jobless-claims-increased-line-expectations-153500861.html">inched up last week</a>, yet remain low.</strong> New unemployment filings rose to 222,000 for the week ending April 19, indicating a stable labor market. Despite tariffs causing some economic concerns, this leading employment indicator has yet to raise alarms about hiring.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/claims.25apr2025.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-23915" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/claims.25apr2025.png" alt="Jobless Claims" width="594" height="320" /></a></p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-25-april-2025/#more-23914" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-25-april-2025/" title="6:42 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-04-25T06:42:47-04:00">April 25, 2025</time></a>
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<p>President Trump has stated he does not intend to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, though the pressure for rate cuts persists. Nonetheless, the central bank is projected to maintain current rates during next month’s policy meeting, resulting in an ongoing standoff.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/fed-expected-to-keep-rates-steady-despite-trumps-calls-for-cuts/#more-23910" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/fed-expected-to-keep-rates-steady-despite-trumps-calls-for-cuts/" title="7:39 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-04-24T07:39:29-04:00">April 24, 2025</time></a>
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<p><strong>U.S. economic activity shows signs of slowing in April, as indicated by PMI survey results.</strong> The growth in output during last month was the slowest since December 2023, based on the U.S. Composite Output Index, which serves as a GDP proxy. “The initial flash PMI data for April points to a noticeable deceleration in business activity growth at the beginning of the second quarter, coupled with a decline in outlook optimism,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, which released the report. “At the same time, rising price pressures are presenting a challenge for a central bank facing increasing demands to support a weakening economy as inflation appears poised to escalate.”</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/pmi.24apr2025.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-23908" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/pmi.24apr2025.png" alt="PMI Data" width="514" height="310" /></a></p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-24-april-2025/#more-23907" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-24-april-2025/" title="6:39 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-04-24T06:39:03-04:00">April 24, 2025</time></a>
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<p>The preliminary estimate for U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter indicates a significant downturn, according to the median nowcast compiled by CapitalSpectator.com from various sources.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-economy-expected-to-post-sharp-slowdown-in-q1-growth/#more-23905" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-economy-expected-to-post-sharp-slowdown-in-q1-growth/" title="7:13 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-04-23T07:13:11-04:00">April 23, 2025</time></a>
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<p><strong>The IMF <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2025/04/22/world-economic-outlook-april-2025">revised its global growth forecast for 2025,</a> citing tariffs as a contributing factor.</strong> The U.S. economy is expected to <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/IMF-slashes-China-US-global-growth-forecasts-on-trade-war">grow by only 1.8%</a> this year, a downward adjustment of nine-tenths of a percentage point from the initial January projection. “Escalating downside risks overshadow the outlook, driven by intensifying trade tensions and adjustments in financial markets,” the IMF states in its updated World Economic Outlook. “Rapidly changing policy positions or declining sentiment could tighten global financial conditions further. Heightened trade wars and uncertain trade policies may impede both short-term and long-term growth prospects. Reducing international cooperation could threaten progress towards a more resilient global economy.”</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/imf.23apr2025.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-23903" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/imf.23apr2025.png" alt="IMF Report" width="615" height="347" /></a></p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-23-april-2025/#more-23902" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-23-april-2025/" title="6:42 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-04-23T06:42:38-04:00">April 23, 2025</time></a>
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<p>Over the past three weeks, a new global environment has emerged since President Trump announced <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump%27s_Liberation_Day_tariffs#:~:text=Tariff%20announcement,-Trump's%20Liberation%20Day&text=In%20the%20White%20House%20Rose,our%20declaration%20of%20economic%20independence.%22">"Liberation Day"</a> and introduced U.S. tariffs. From an investment standpoint, it is evident that this has caused widespread upheaval, prompting markets to reevaluate risk factors related to economic activity, financial assets, trade policies, and the assumptions surrounding safe havens.</p>
<p> <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/tracking-global-markets-since-liberation-day/#more-23900" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/tracking-global-markets-since-liberation-day/" title="7:51 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-04-22T07:51:50-04:00">April 22, 2025</time></a>
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