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<p>Several indicators provide insight into monetary policy, each with unique advantages and drawbacks. One significant metric to consider is the unemployment rate.</p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/when-will-the-unemployment-rate-influence-fed-policy/" title="7:24 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-06-11T07:24:17-04:00">June 11, 2025</time></a>
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<p><strong>The World Bank has <a href="https://apnews.com/article/world-economy-trump-tariffs-trade-growth-china-5a56591be1373cf34a5ba4bbe8ab6661">revised</a> its growth forecasts for both the US and global economies, attributing the change to rising tariffs.</strong> The anticipated growth rate for the US economy has been halved to 1.4% for 2025, down from the earlier estimate of 2.3% published in January. The forecast indicates that this decade is on track to be the slowest for global growth since the 1960s.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/gdp.11jun2025.png"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-24113" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/gdp.11jun2025.png" alt="" width="812" height="614" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-11-june-2025/#more-24112" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-11-june-2025/" title="6:34 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-06-11T06:34:11-04:00">June 11, 2025</time></a>
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<p>There has been extensive discussion regarding the economic outlook and inflation trends following President Trump's unexpected shift in US trade policy in April. Although tariffs have risen and predictions have become uncertain, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has remained stable and unchanged. While this continuity may not be favorable, it is one of the few reliable aspects of the macroeconomic landscape right now.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/fed-policy-is-still-on-hold-but-for-how-long/#more-24107" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/fed-policy-is-still-on-hold-but-for-how-long/" title="8:01 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-06-10T08:01:37-04:00">June 10, 2025</time></a>
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<p><strong>According to survey data from May, Americans have revised their inflation expectations downwards.</strong> The one-year inflation expectation fell by 0.4 percentage points to 3.2%, as reported by the New York Fed. For the three-year forecast, expectations dropped to 3%, while the five-year outlook decreased to 2.6%. Despite these declines, inflation expectations still exceed the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/nyfed.10jan2025.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-24105" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/nyfed.10jan2025.png" alt="" width="1136" height="806" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-10-june-2025/#more-24104" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-10-june-2025/" title="6:38 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-06-10T06:38:02-04:00">June 10, 2025</time></a>
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<p>Since President Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2, dubbed “Liberation Day,” Bitcoin has emerged as a strong investment. Compared to major global markets, this cryptocurrency has significantly outperformed others, particularly when analyzed through specialized ETFs as of June 6. In stark contrast, the US dollar has experienced a downturn and is currently the weakest performer.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/bitcoin-wins-the-us-dollar-loses-since-liberation-day/#more-24101" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/bitcoin-wins-the-us-dollar-loses-since-liberation-day/" title="7:24 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-06-09T07:24:45-04:00">June 9, 2025</time></a>
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<p><strong>The US economy demonstrated stronger job growth in May than anticipated.</strong> The Labor Department reported an addition of 139,000 jobs, showcasing resilience in the labor market despite recent economic shocks, as highlighted by Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed-income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/jobs.09jun2025.png"><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-24099" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/jobs.09jun2025.png" alt="" width="650" height="450" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-9-june-2025/#more-24098" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-9-june-2025/" title="6:43 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-06-09T06:43:21-04:00">June 9, 2025</time></a>
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<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/how.05jun2025.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class=" wp-image-24088 alignleft" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/how.05jun2025.png" alt="" width="138" height="210" /></a>● <a href="https://amzn.to/3Hv08pD">How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle</a><br/>Ray Dalio<br/><strong><a href="https://www.inc.com/chris-morris/billionaire-ray-dalio-raising-alarm-potential-economic-death-spiral/91198330">Review</a> via Inc.</strong><br/>Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has expressed serious concerns about the escalating debt situation in the US, likening it to a potential “death spiral” that could threaten the entire economy. In his recent book, *How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle*, Dalio joins a growing number of financial experts raising alarms over government debt. This release comes in light of a Congressional Budget Office report indicating that Trump’s budget proposal could increase the national debt by $2.4 trillion, currently at $36.9 trillion. Dalio emphasizes that this issue is of utmost urgency.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-7-june-2025/#more-24074" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/book-bits-7-june-2025/" title="6:59 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-06-07T06:59:39-04:00">June 7, 2025</time></a>
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<p>Despite ongoing uncertainty and risk regarding the economic outlook, the latest nowcasts for the government’s second-quarter GDP report, set to be released on July 30, indicate signs of recovery following a slight contraction in the first quarter.</p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-gdp-still-on-track-to-rebound-in-q2/" title="7:10 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-06-06T07:10:09-04:00">June 6, 2025</time></a>
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<p><strong>Jobless claims in the US increased last week, reaching their highest point since October, which could signal concerns for the labor market.</strong> Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer of Northlight Asset Management, noted that while jobless claims are rising, the pace is slow, suggesting that it’s an area to monitor, but not yet a cause for alarm.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/claims.06jun2025.png"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-24090" src="https://www.capitalspectator.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/claims.06jun2025.png" alt="" width="986" height="603" /></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-6-june-2025/#more-24089" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/macro-briefing-6-june-2025/" title="6:28 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-06-06T06:28:45-04:00">June 6, 2025</time></a>
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<p>May has proven to be a complex month for interpreting macroeconomic data amidst rising tariffs. The upcoming Labor Department payrolls report may shed light on the situation. Preliminary data from the previous month reflects a mixed outlook.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/mixed-data-for-may-clouds-outlook-for-us-economy/#more-24083" class="more-link">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">→</span></a></p>
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By James Picerno | <a href="https://www.capitalspectator.com/mixed-data-for-may-clouds-outlook-for-us-economy/" title="7:20 am" rel="bookmark"><time class="entry-date" datetime="2025-06-05T07:20:58-04:00">June 5, 2025</time></a>
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