Cox Automotive Q3 2026 Update on Used-Vehicle Market: Key Highlights
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Depreciation Trends: Wholesale depreciation escalated in Q3 2026 due to rising fuel costs, increasing interest rates, and broader economic pressures.
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Shift in Used-Vehicle Dynamics:
- Continued growth of EV sales and off-lease volumes is reshaping the market.
- Values of EVs and smaller, fuel-efficient vehicles are on the rise.
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Forecast Adjustments:
- The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index is now expected to increase by only 0.2% year-over-year by the end of 2026, a downgrade from the previously forecasted 2% increase.
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Market Performance:
- The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index dropped to 205.9 in September, a 0.6% decrease year-over-year and a 1.1% fall from August. Non-adjusted wholesale prices decreased by 1.2% year-over-year.
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Factors Influencing Values:
- The absence of an Atlantic hurricane in September contributed to notable depreciation.
- Elevated fuel prices particularly affected diesel vehicles, which saw decreased demand.
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EV Market Growth:
- Wholesale EV sales surged by 22% from Q2 and 45% year-over-year, now constituting 4.9% of all Manheim transactions.
- Retail EV sales also hit a record high of 124,000 units in Q3.
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Market Outlook for 2027:
- Future market conditions will be influenced by rising interest rates, consumer sentiment, and potential policy changes post-midterm elections.
- Off-lease EV supply is expected to increase to 16% in the second half of 2026.
Conclusion: Despite strong demand for used vehicles, economic challenges are reshaping the market, with significant implications for pricing and vehicle values as we move into Q4 2026.
