The number of satellites launched for military intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) is projected to rise more than four times over the next decade, according to industry consultancy Novaspace. The forecast indicates that 2,306 defense-owned ISR satellites will be launched between 2026 and 2035, compared to just 485 in the previous decade.
The ongoing war in Ukraine has highlighted the crucial role of space-based intelligence, further emphasizing the need for governments to have reliable access to this data. This demand has benefited commercial ISR satellite providers, like Finland’s ICEYE.
Novaspace CEO Pacôme Révillon pointed out that ISR is a key priority for nations, with a focus on diversifying assets for real-time and persistent intelligence. Most upcoming defense ISR satellites will be launched as part of constellations rather than as individual units.
Government funding for space defense is expected to rise to $121 billion by 2028, up from $74 billion last year, with at least 55 countries now allocating budgets for space defense. In 2022, this budget was around $53 billion.
The number of operational satellites could increase fivefold to between 50,000 and 100,000 by 2036, up from 18,000 in 2026, which raises concerns about space traffic management. Additionally, over 400 satellites for space situational awareness will be launched between 2025 and 2034, with a total expected spending of $61 billion, and defense programs likely accounting for $52 billion of that amount.
