Conor here: Polish political leaders have been vocal about various issues—often drawing warnings from Moscow for many years.
It’s likely that figures like Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski, who is married to the prominent Cold War figure Anne Applebaum, would consider sacrificing the wellbeing of their countrymen if instructed by their imperial overlords.
However, it’s important to frame these bold statements from Warsaw against the backdrop of Poland’s escalating military budget, which increasingly allocates funds to U.S. arms manufacturers.
Next year’s budget includes an astonishing 4.8% of GDP designated for defense, while even with optimistic projections for growth and revenue, a budget deficit of 6.5% of GDP is anticipated.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk recently dismissed concerns about the financial implications of purchasing U.S. military equipment and the potential need for cuts to social spending in the future.
“We won’t defend the Polish border with a small deficit,” he stated. “We will defend it with a modern, large army.”
This brings us to the grim prospects facing Poland: In a worst-case scenario, the nation finds itself in the midst of chaos, while in a best-case scenario, it emerges as a country armed with U.S. military hardware but financially crippled and ill-prepared to face upcoming challenges:
The probability of a wave of migration of desperate Ukrainians into surrounding countries like Poland and Hungary is growing. It would hit at the same time as an energy crisis. European leaders are on autopilot – they are also low IQ droolers installed by a foreign power. https://t.co/kfQDtamFXa
— Philip Pilkington (@philippilk) September 5, 2026
By Andrew Korybko, a Moscow-based American political analyst with expertise in the global shift toward multipolarity in the New Cold War. He holds a Ph.D. from MGIMO, which operates under the auspices of the Russian Foreign Ministry. This was originally published on his website.
The alarmist narrative regarding the threat of Russian attacks on Poland, along with the Prime Minister’s call for an “anti-ballistic missile coalition” with Ukraine, indicates a desire for Poland to intercept Russian missiles over Ukrainian territory, but first, they may need to persuade the President to greenlight such initiatives.
Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski created headlines once more when he stated that NATO would “quickly defeat Russia” if war were to break out. Recently, he asserted that Russian hybrid warfare against Europe had escalated into “kinetic” actions, as evidenced by recent drone and missile incidents. He concluded that “Russia is clearly escalating; Russia is at war with Europe.” His dramatic conclusion was timely, coinciding with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s annual address.
It has been articulated that “Von Der Leyen’s Defense Plans Place Europe On The Path To War With Russia,” stemming from improved military decision-making processes within the EU and an expanded influence over non-member states like Ukraine, which will play a role in forming a new European Security Council. Member states will have Article 4 rights, allowing them to convene emergency meetings whenever they feel threatened, while the EU continues to merge its defense industry with that of Ukraine.
Sikorski’s assertion that “Russia is at war with Europe” came the day after von der Leyen’s address, coinciding with a day Polish citizens remember as the anniversary of the Soviet invasion in 1939—a move that Moscow claims was intended to liberate oppressed East Slavs after their government fled. On that day, Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that “the most likely scenario” in the near future is that Russia may carry out drone or missile strikes against Poland, which Russia would undoubtedly characterize as “accidents.”
Consequently, and some Poles cynically suspect a premeditated overreaction for dramatic purposes, air raid sirens were activated in eastern Polish cities like Lublin and Rzeszów following another Russian precision strike on Ukrainian targets near the border. This was predictable following the first-ever strike against railway infrastructure, so it wasn’t entirely surprising. Nevertheless, it reinforced the perception of urgency behind Tusk’s earlier warning of an imminent Russian attack “in months.”
Tusk, amplifying his alarmism, claimed to have information from the CIA head concerning Russian intentions to attack Poland. However, conservative President Karol Nawrocki’s foreign policy spokesperson accused Tusk of spreading “a fabricated lie to electrify public opinion.” While no details were provided, Tusk’s announcement about Poland joining Ukraine’s “anti-ballistic missile coalition” and Sikorski’s advocacy for Poland to intercept Russian missiles indicate what their agenda might be.
Poland has not yet attempted such actions, as the final decision rests with President Andrzej Duda and his successor Nawrocki. Despite Nawrocki’s visible disdain for Russia, as evidenced by his recent use of an ethnically charged term to describe its populace, he isn’t inclined to risk Poland’s security through such drastic measures. However, the ruling liberal coalition exhibits less caution and may collaborate with Ukraine to engineer a false flag event to manipulate him into escalating tensions.
Recent messages may indicate a strategy aimed at preparing the public for such an escalation. Simultaneously, they could be negotiating potential scenarios with their NATO allies depending on Russia’s reactions, though none of this matters if the U.S. decides not to get involved. Current indications suggest that Trump is reluctant to risk an uncontrollable escalation, meaning Nawrocki—who tends to align with U.S. directives—may not authorize such aggressive moves regardless of future developments.
