In recent days, the unfolding situation of the Iran war has taken a significant turn, marked by rapid military developments and strategic implications. This article aims to summarize the key events surrounding the Ansar Allah’s offensive in Yemen and the resulting impacts on regional tensions and global markets.
Even by the already unpredictable standards of the conflict, considerable developments have occurred within a short span. A brief overview of Ansar Allah’s swift offensive, as reported by Nat last week, reveals they have captured nearly 2,000 square kilometers of territory. This includes most of Yemen’s coast along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, key ports like Mokha, and the strategically important Perim Island. Moreover, Ansar Allah’s attacks have severely compromised the Saudi east-west oil pipeline, leading to its closure and anticipated repairs that could take up to six weeks. It’s noteworthy that pipelines contain crucial above-ground components, such as pumping stations, which appear to have been targeted:
‼️ High-resolution images of Saudi pipeline pumping station damage are beginning to appear.
Looks like comprehensive destruction to me. https://t.co/ZJE8vY464b
— Will Schryver (@imetatronink) September 14, 2026
Analysts believe that Ansar Allah could quickly disable the pipeline again once repairs are completed. The Saudis had depended on this route for domestic supplies and to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz while attempting to restore oil exports to around 70% of pre-war levels.
Market reactions to these events have been swift. From the Bloomberg landing page:
According to an article titled Oil Jumps as Shutdown of Saudi Pipeline Brings Fresh Supply Risk,
- Oil prices surged after Saudi Arabia shut down a major crude pipeline due to attacks, disrupting a vital route that had been designed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
- The closure of the East-West pipeline has major implications for Saudi Arabia, particularly impacting its operational strategies during the Iran conflict.
- Experts predict that a prolonged pipeline shutdown could result in output cuts, depending on how quickly Saudi Arabia can resume shipping from its reserves.
The ongoing crisis in the Middle East has sparked inflationary pressures on the global economy, causing prices of crude oil, natural gas, and petroleum products including diesel to climb. Following new U.S. data indicating that inflation is rising, expectations have grown for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve this week.
Even before the recent attacks on the East-West pipeline, Saudi oil production was already facing challenges. Recent reports to the OPEC cartel indicated that the kingdom’s crude output had dropped to its lowest level since 1990.
Experts suggest that the Yanbu storage could only sustain exports for a short period, around five to seven days. Beyond that, significant disruptions can be expected, especially with ongoing uncertainties regarding repairs. Some are forecasting the price of oil could test $120 a barrel under prevailing conditions.
Details regarding repair and transit timelines have further heightened concerns:
Repairs on East West Pipeline could take more than 6 weeks!! Yanbu has about 5-7 days of Stocks to maintain oil exports! ( maybe lower as yanbu may be hit) It also looks like Saudi VLCCs are now headed to US rather than Eastern Med going around Africa given East med is useless https://t.co/F9IPxQ6SwX
— Ali (@MerruX) September 13, 2026
If Saudi say it will take a month you should at least double that timeframe considering how long previous repair took like the damages to Jizan (that has been knocked out again afterwards)
— JustDario (@DarioCpx) September 13, 2026
The Saudi retaliatory measures thus far have only provoked stronger responses from Ansar Allah, leading to a back-and-forth escalation of hostilities. As reported on Aljazeera:
From the live feed:
- The Houthis have reportedly launched a large-scale ballistic missile and drone assault on Saudi Arabia’s King Khalid Air Base in Khamis Mushait, claiming “direct hits.” No immediate response from Riyadh has been recorded.
- Iran-backed rebels also declared they captured additional strategic islands in the southern Red Sea, further strengthening their hold over the key Bab al-Mandeb shipping route.
In terms of updated military exchanges:
⚡️ Saudi Arabia is said to have used DF-15 series surface-to-surface ballistic missiles against Ansar Allah positions in Yemen. This missile, manufactured in China, has a range of up to 1,000 kilometers.
— Middle East Observer (@ME_Observer_) September 14, 2026
According to Axios, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman attempted to reach out to Trump for support during the early stages of the attacks, but the response was lukewarm. The U.S.’s rationale so far has been that the Houthis do not pose a threat to American shipping:
WASHINGTON TURNS DOWN RIYADH 🇸🇦
President Donald Trump has made it clear. The United States will not intervene in defense of Saudi Arabia against the Houthis. 🇸🇦
He stated that the Houthis have contacted Washington and expressed that they do not seek war. https://t.co/9Wc1cCIupX pic.twitter.com/7tEVHmIWIP
— 𝐃𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐝 𝐙 🇷🇺 🇷🇸🇮🇪 (@SMO_VZ) September 12, 2026
Despite these developments, reports indicate that the U.S. did send 200 troops and 100 advisers to the region, according to a report by the Hindustan Times.
In another noteworthy update from the Aljazeera live feed:
Saudi crown prince meets CENTCOM chief in Jeddah amid regional escalation
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had a meeting with U.S. Central Command Chief Admiral Brad Cooper in Jeddah, where they reviewed the latest “regional developments.”
Saudi Arabia has ramped up airstrikes on Yemen following rapid territorial gains made by the Houthis along the Red Sea coast, particularly around the Bab al-Mandeb shipping route.
One can only speculate about the discussions that took place during this meeting.
In contrast, Israel has quickly indicated its willingness to participate in military action. As reported by the Jerusalem Post, prior to the pipeline shutdown, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed interest in joining efforts against the Houthis:
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has suggested that Israel may contribute to a broader campaign aimed at curtailing the Iranian-backed Houthi group in Yemen. This effort would be part of a larger regional strategy to safeguard shipping routes in both the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
Saudi attempts to persuade Iran to pressure Ansar Allah to negotiate have faltered:
🇮🇷🇸🇦 Iran indicates that Saudi Arabia has postponed a planned discussion regarding the situation in Yemen, with Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei criticizing Riyadh for “pointing in the wrong direction.”
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) September 14, 2026
Assuming the reports are accurate, Netanyahu’s public stance may serve to bolster his image of toughness ahead of Israel’s upcoming elections. Commentary from Trita Parsi suggests that Trump has restrained Israel from executing more aggressive actions against Iran, predicting a substantial operation alongside Israel post-midterms. The feasible military options for the U.S. and Israel appear limited as weapons stocks dwindle. Iran seemingly anticipates this scenario and may intensify attacks on U.S. operations in Jordan to undermine Israel’s defenses.
Discussions have emerged regarding the pipeline strike allegedly originating from Iraq, prompting questions about the Iraqi government’s response. Iraqi officials have been engaged in a struggle with Iranian-aligned militias, who deny any involvement in the attack. Nevertheless, as detailed in the Financial Times:
Shortly after Saudi Arabia confirmed that the drone strike targeting its east-west oil pipeline was launched from Iraq, the Iraqi Prime Minister sought to assert his government’s commitment to counteracting threats within the nation. Zaidi’s office stated, “Iraq reaffirms that its territories and airspace will not be a launching point for aggression against any country.”
However, fulfilling that promise would require confronting Iran’s significant influence and addressing the powerful militias affiliated with Tehran, a monumental challenge given their established political and military strength.
Ultimately, Saudi Arabia could choose to de-escalate the situation by withdrawing its intervening forces in Yemen, potentially positioning itself as a defender of the global economy. However, should MBS choose to dig in his heels, experts—like Larry Johnson and Professor Steve Hanke—suggest that Ansar Allah might even threaten the stability of the Saudi government, estimating a 15% chance of such a scenario. MBS faces considerable opposition from within the Saudi elite, particularly since he has previously engaged in adversarial dealings with members of the royal family.
A compelling discussion between Patrick Henningsen and Daniel Davis elaborates on Ansar Allah’s increasing military capabilities, pointing out that the Houthis enjoy support from around 80% of the Yemeni population, thus characterizing them as the legitimate government rather than rebels. Henningsen emphasizes that this narrative often misconstrues the realities on the ground:
From a lightly edited machine transcript:
The internationally recognized government is essentially the Saudi-backed forces, which have been largely dependent on foreign mercenaries. The balance of support within Yemen clearly favors Ansar Allah, who continue to bolster their military capabilities and improve operations.
A notable factor is that Ansar Allah’s recent gains diminish the likelihood of a peaceful resolution as the Saudis refuse to compromise. As observed by Danny Citrinowicz on Twitter:
One significant point to emphasize is that even if Iran and the Gulf states were to reach an agreement that reopened the Strait of Hormuz, the Houthi campaign against Saudi Arabia would likely continue unless the Saudi blockade against them is lifted. This highlights the complexity of the Iranian-Houthi objective beyond mere maritime navigation.
Focusing on developments regarding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, a Bloomberg report reflects the ongoing complexity in resolving the conflict:
- A planned meeting between Iran and several Gulf Arab nations to discuss a temporary shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz has been postponed at Saudi Arabia’s request.
- This delay is partly due to Saudi frustrations with ongoing attacks from Iranian-supported factions such as the Houthis.
- The Salalah meeting aimed to address a proposal suggesting Iran should oversee the entry of vessels into the Persian Gulf, possibly collecting fees in the process.
The perspectives from Gulf states about Iran’s actions indicate a wariness that may slow any progress toward a cooperative relationship:
Gulf States fear Iran’s ‘double game’ with proxies, says public policy expert
Sultan Barakat, a professor of public policy at Hamad Bin Khalifa University, expressed concern that Iran may be executing a ‘double game’ by leveraging its proxies while simultaneously advocating for peaceful negotiations.
This perspective fails to acknowledge the agency of Ansar Allah as an independent player in the conflict. Recent trends have illustrated how non-state actors can defy the directives of their backers. Furthermore, certain Iranian officials have raised the possibility of withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, an indication of shifting strategies in the geopolitical landscape.
Trump is facing pressure to address the rising energy prices, countering suggestions that his policies are responsible. In remarks reported by RT:
U.S. President Donald Trump attributed the ongoing diesel price spikes to Ukrainian actions against Russian energy production. He emphasized that the surge in costs is linked to the dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine conflict rather than Middle Eastern factors.
Market stakeholders are gradually becoming more aware of how Iranian and allied groups are impacting energy availability from the region. The predicted lubricant shortages are beginning to manifest:
Costco is now rationing motor oil
“stores are now imposing a two-per-customer, per-week limit.” – Drive https://t.co/sruyQK6axS
— Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) September 13, 2026
As a final note:
A key topic of discussion emerging from the BRICS summit highlights the commitment to enhance trade and investment using local currencies, as articulated by Larry Johnson. The focus on creating an alternative payment system that circumvents the dollar-based SWIFT network is significant:
Recent developments have seen BRICS members exploring decentralized payment solutions that enable them to conduct transactions without relying on the dollar system, indicating a shift toward more autonomous economic frameworks.
In conclusion, the ongoing conflict in Yemen and its regional ramifications present complex challenges to both local and global stakeholders. As various parties respond to the changing dynamics, the potential for prolonged hostilities remains a significant concern, not only for those directly involved but also for the broader global economy.
